Harry Potter Mafia

[HardlySanguine]

@Jimmy: Maybe I’m missing something but I thought we were supposed to indicate our suspicions of other players? I want all my thoughts out there. Maybe I was going to die last Night – what if I thought of something no one else did? What if, when I’m dead, my thoughts and gut reactions can help a townie feel more comfortable with their votes?

Maybe you’re concerned and thinking a scum might make a post similar to mine so that s/he would have an easier time voting for almost anyone at a later date? If I’m going to vote for someone, I’d like to have a better reason than any I’ve mentioned in that post. As you point out, I don’t vote for anyone. I didn’t find anyone doing anything all that incriminating yesterDay.

If you’re concerned about why you’re on my ‘short list,’ it’s because your vote for Shadow seemed illogical to me. I don’t agree with Shadow’s analysis of pedescribe/LPN, either, but your vote for him, especially in light of your preface:

[QUOTE=Jimmy in 461]
In other words, you’re comfortable voting for LPN because of pedescribe’s anti-town but not necessarily scum-motivated playstyle? That justification scares me. It’s one thing to say “that’s still anti-town” when you’re still talking about the same player, but another entirely to think it’s a good idea to punish a replacement for it.
[/quote]

Didn’t (and doesn’t) make that worth a vote. (in my opinion, obviously) I get that you’re using voting as a tool to show your suspicions of Shadow and that’s why I’m not going to vote for you based solely on that exchange.

I’m not very good at explaining myself, sometimes, so if you still don’t understand, I won’t be offended. Just let me know. I hope that this, along with my reply to Inner Stickler, above, clarifies things.
(On preview, this last paragraph strikes me as really scummy. But, it’s what I want to say, so whatever).

[HardlySanguine]

@Guiri: The World Cup thing was actually so I could ask about Quidditch. I don’t feel comfortable saying anything more at this point, so I won’t.

With regards to my feeling that OaOW is town, my parenthetical was because I said the same thing about Rysto, yesterDay, and he was killed that night.

I think that 466 indicates OaOW’s towniness because I struggled with a reason for a scum to make a defensive post like this. I feel like posts by scum are usually more thought-out than those by town so between this lack of reason (as I see it) and his mix-up of LPN/Jimmy, I got the impression that he’s town. Not the best reasoning (or reason) but it’s the best way I can qualify my gut reaction.

Thinking about it more, as I’m typing out this post, if both OaOW and ShadowFacts are scum, it would make some sense.

[HardlySanguine]

I would like to hear people’s thoughts on the mass-name-reveal I talked about yesterDay. I know Zeriel thinks that it would be a sad game design if doing so were effective – have your thoughts changed?

To repeat myself, and possibly clarify: If Voldemort is the only scum with a cover, as Omi’s death might indicate, scum would have to reveal their names later to avoid duplication.

On the other hand based on the relationship between powers and names evidenced by Rysto and Drain Bead, it might give the scum more information than it gives us (Assuming there are still power roles left). Further, I was struggling to find a reason for LPN’s death and I just now recalled her post about how the polyjuice thing works. If she was on to something (ie. a reason for Omi to not have a cover and the other scum to have one), maybe that’s why she was killed. I still have no idea what she was trying to say. Posts 440, 444.

Perhaps to meta-game-y, but how likely do you think it would be for there to be one or two pure vanilla scum (like Omi) and a couple of power roles with covers? Or, I suppose, some pure vanilla scum, some non-power roles with covers, and a similar mixture for those scum with power roles. Assuming there are scum power roles.

The more I think about it, I lean towards a it being a bad idea to reveal our names. After we see what happens when we kill one more scum, it might be worth it, though.

[Meeko]

**Looks like I’m gonna get to do some actual work here. So Hold back, fair warning. **

---

@Chronos

OK, quick, someone else confess to being a bad guy, so I’ll know how to vote! But seriously, I need to do a lot of catching up before I can post too much substantive.

That said, I have a couple of hypotheses for why Red Skeezix acted the way he did:

1: He was apparently a standard Godfather, meaning that with the investigator dead without having claimed any results, he was effectively vanilla Scum. This makes him the most expendable member of the Scum team, but there’s still an inclination among players to regard the Godfather as the least expendable Scum. This makes him an excellent candidate for bussing, since it’d give his bussers disproportionately-high credibility for it, but would carry a disproportionately-low cost for Scum. Of course, there’s plenty of WIFOM here, so I’m not yet willing to attach blame to his early voters (i.e., before he claimed), but I’m also not willing to give them too much credit for it, either.

2: The opening post said that Voldemort especially wanted Harry Potter dead. Might it be that Voldemort had some sort of special personal win-condition, and didn’t need to play any more with Harry gone?

Extra bolding is mine.

0. Chronos subbed in. He is [was] going to approach the game differently. Full Stop.

1. If I were subbing in, I would probably be overly cautious, than not. Especially in a game that I would find to be advanced.

1b. YMMV on advanced, I am speaking as someone who has played 7 or so games, and frankly finds this game to be very, very sideways. What are the odds of the body-count being that non-vanilla?

2. Chronos’ 1 uses the word apparently. I think this comes from the caution I mention above.

2b.WIFOM and I will probably never agree on terms. However, I can put it forward that WIFOM implies at least the attempt to play something both ways. The defense to WIFOM is to likeways play something two ways, in order to counter, and cover all bases.

2c. I believe 2b was Chronos’ downfall. Chronos talked out enough rope to hang himself. He struck on good points for both side to use. Scum got to use theirs first.[Excuse the general MAFIA pun here]

@Inner_Stickler

Chronos, only a few posts ago you were postulating a scum team with a Godfather, Roleblocker, Investigator, and a Vanilla scum. That’s pretty specific. But now you’re saying there’s likely no investigator. Which is it?

Vote Snipped.

for contradictory posts and seeming PIS.

3.This seems to blaze over the caution that Chronos set up. [[Smudge]] It seems to narrow the focus on one part, and rope a dope into something else later.

4.We look at "“but now you’re saying there’s likely no investigator” and by that point, we have bought the thought “Chronos said there was a Godfather” with out the conditional. Misdirection.

@Chronos

Apologies if I seem to be meandering, but that’s probably due to being a sub. I haven’t had a chance to fully process the game to date yet, so my contributions thus far have, I admit, been a bit weak. I’ll re-read tomorrow afternoon and hopefully have some more substance then.

@Zeriel

Similarly, I’m going to be gone most of the rest of the week.

Secondly, I haven’t had a lot of time to read this week, but I am keeping up, and I’m finding that Chronos’ statements about scum team makeup are/were a little too matter-of-fact and specific for me to be comfortable with.
Vote Bleached / Snipped

5.I don’t see how ““matter-of-fact”” and ““Specific”” can wash with “Apparently” – Especially “Apparently” that is washed once over with “It might be WIFOM” == Which is not that far from “I have no F-ing clue.”

6.“I have no F-ing clue” does not equal “Specific, Matter of Fact”.

@One_And_Only_Wanderers

vote Chronos

For the Godfather as vanilla being “most” expendable. This obviously presupposes no other vanilla’s and seems to be PIS like

7.And by this point, anyone still playing that had a faint memory that Chronos overly hedged on “Godfather” is being put away in a home for loons.
8.I flat out do not like the timing of Zeriel and OAOW here.

9.I come in right after and state I need more time. I would think that any town player would have done the same.

**I believe that at least one of Inner Zeriel or OAOW is scum. **Then again, this late in the game, this might not be that much help. But I will know where to look later on “today”.

[One_And_Only_Wanderers]

@GuiriEnEspana

Unless someone counter-claims Story with a really, really good reason for not doing so yesterDay, I’m also considering Story confirmed.
Humor?

I’ve read this a couple of times but can’t make much sense of the part in parenthesis. Here’s OaOW’s post #466:Can you explain what you meant?

Story had made an analysis, and the refutation of same was that the vote in question could have just been a bored town. I was saying I wasn’t assumng that myself

[One_And_Only_Wanderers]

Given that we know polyjuice is in the game, is a mass name reveal much use?

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@Meeko

8.I flat out do not like the timing of Zeriel and OAOW here.

9.I come in right after and state I need more time. I would think that any town player would have done the same.

**I believe that at least one of Inner Zeriel or OAOW is scum. **Then again, this late in the game, this might not be that much help. But I will know where to look later on “today”.

You voted for Chronos after the three above-referenced did, saying you could get on board with the PIS. Not that mathematically speaking there isn’t a good chance you’re right about those three, but if you were OK with the reasoning then, why not now?

HardlySanguine: I’m not concerned that I might be on your list so much as I’m concerned that no matter which side you’re on, your not voting will never help us catch scum. If Omi had made the same post and not voted, there would have been nothing scummy about that post - just an unknown player expressing suspicion of a couple other players. And that’s why we can’t afford to have people abstaining. If you’re suspicious of somebody, even me, and vote for me, that has consequences for everyone else, and that’s good. So share your thoughts, absolutely; I just think everyone should vote.

I’ve reread now (which isn’t quite as daunting a task in this game, which is a blessing if a mixed one). Few other points: Chipacabra has more or less disappeared after the opening skirmishes, which is interesting because of how much he had to say about so relatively little going on at the time.

Zeriel. Second vote in on Chronos, now known to be town. Among the last in on Skeezix, known not to be. Wanted another mason claim and threatened to vote story if he didn’t get it; story is now, it seems, presumed confirmed. Laying fairly low as well; most posts are about mechanics and history and things. On the other hand, though, I don’t understand why story claimed, either, so it’s hard to get into too much of a lather over the notion that Zeriel might have been on the wrong side of that.

And, to be fair, I have realized that Shadow’s early game play is a little difficult for me to reconcile with my (and, I note, Chronos’) suspicions. His recent play is still difficult to reconcile with the credit I give him for the early game, though, and it doesn’t sit entirely comfortably with me how quick he was to give himself that credit, so it’s a pickle. The upshot is I don’t think I want to begin today with the argument that from the very first day the (presumably) majority of the scum were involved in a complicated reverse busing triangle or something, but I don’t want to give anyone the idea I’m abandoning my position.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@HardlySanguine

@Guiri: The World Cup thing was actually so I could ask about Quidditch. I don’t feel comfortable saying anything more at this point, so I won’t.

OK, consider me whooshed. I was more interested in what I thought was the reason for your lack of participation yesterDay. Your comment “Heh, well now that the World Cup is over I guess I can come back to this.” seemed to be a lame excuse for not participating considering the World Cup finished 4 days earlier.

@HardlySanguine

With regards to my feeling that OaOW is town, my parenthetical was because I said the same thing about Rysto, yesterDay, and he was killed that night.

OK, I did not make that connection.

@HardlySanguine

I would like to hear people’s thoughts on the mass-name-reveal I talked about yesterDay.

If the death eaters have infiltrated the OotP by using polyjuice potion, I don’t think we’d gain much from a mass name claim.

[Chipacabra]

I’m still here and still active. I’ve intentionally backed off, if I keep talking as much as I did day 1 no one else will be able to get a word in, heh.

When I get a little more time, I’ll go through and study the history of the survivors, and share my thoughts.

[Jimmy_Chitwood]

@GuiriEnEspana

OK, consider me whooshed. I was more interested in what I thought was the reason for your lack of participation yesterDay. Your comment “Heh, well now that the World Cup is over I guess I can come back to this.” seemed to be a lame excuse for not participating considering the World Cup finished 4 days earlier.

World Cup, Quidditch, get it? It’s gold, Guiri, gold.

[HardlySanguine]

@One_And_Only_Wanderers

Given that we know polyjuice is in the game, is a mass name reveal much use?

@GuiriEnEspana

If the death eaters have infiltrated the OotP by using polyjuice potion, I don’t think we’d gain much from a mass name claim.

[QUOTE=Mahaloth, day 1 (post 230)]
**
As they stared at Ominokami….he began to morph. His true form was revealed.****

And they recognized him.

Ominokami was Antonin Dolohov, a Death Eater.**
[/quote]

Given that we don’t get a name for Omi’s cover, like we did for Red’s (Luna), the question comes down to: Do the potential benefits of a name-reveal outweigh both the possible reasons Omi’s lack of cover (she didn’t have one, other scum will; Maha made a mistake) and possible information that scum get from our names?

---

Jimmy: Fair enough, fair enough. I said I wasn’t going to vote for people based on basically gut reactions but I can see that the game won’t move forward if people don’t. . . Meeko hasn’t done anything since Day 1 to either alleviate or inflate my suspicions of him; he remains the most suspicious person to me. (See post 336)

Vote Meeko[COLOR=Black]
[/COLOR]

[Meeko]

Bolding added, and snipped.

@HardlySanguine

Snipped.

Meeko hasn’t done anything since Day 1 to either alleviate or inflate my suspicions of him; he remains the most suspicious person to me. (See post 336)

Vote bleached by snipped.

@Meeko

Snipped

I’m not sure I follow the second part:

Color is color; it doesn’t make the game mechanics any more advanced.

**
If color doesn’t make the game mechanics more advanced, what does make the game mechanics more advanced?**

Snipped.

@HardlySanguine

Snipped.

OK, this clarifies things. We’re clearly using the word ‘color’ differently. It was my understanding that color was just the words mods use to talk about the game so it’s more interesting for us. In this game, we’re in HP universe rather than a boring ol’ town with some gangstas.

I would think that a clearer stance on something would hopefully alleviate your suspicions on me. Then again, if you are scum, and I made a valid point, it would inflate them. In the sense that I was a townie on to something, it would be better to take me out earlier, than not.
Either way, we talked since Day 1, and I Was under every impression that it was an innocent misunderstanding.

Either you didn’t mean what you said with the “Clarification” quote of yours immediately above OR you are lying with the quote of yours I used to begin this post.

**Can you please explain your reasons for voting me again? **

I don’t think you have a case at all. I believe I am VERY low hanging fruit, and that this vote comes at a very opportunistic time. I would expect to take some heat for getting more involved in the game.

But as I find your vote on me with out reason, and seeming contradictory to your own statement,** I find the entire vote … forced. **

It would seem, that if you take a stand in Mafia, on anything, and someone will take notice. I am willing to bet that 9 times out of 10, the ““Wrong”” people will notice and act before the ““Right”” people notice. That is, ““Wrong”” people being of a different faction.

There was a quote, Twain, was it? — A lie can get halfway around the world before the truth has it’s boots on.
**
I find your vote on me total weak sauce, and self-contradictory. **

Either you were truthful when you said I clarified my stance on ““color”” [[ The conversation was as Day 3 was winding, down and NOT on Day 1]]

OR you were truthful with the comment that I have yet to alleviate or deflate. –

I don’t see how both of these can be truthful. I think you are looking at ANYTHING you can find for a forced and manufactured vote. You are looking so hard, that you forgot that we had conversations after Day 1.

You ping me hard on all of this.

**
Vote Hardly**

Hard.

You ask me about my play style. I will be the first to admit has been muted [[Heh]] in this game. But, I think I am at a point where I need to get out and play more.

[HardlySanguine]

The color question had nothing to do with my suspicions of you. You’ll note that I said (bolding added now):

[QUOTE=Me in 336]
<snip>As a side note, Meeko, what did you mean by […] ? Color is color; it doesn’t make the game mechanics any more advanced. Or were you just skimming? </snip>
[/quote]

I simply didn’t understand what you meant.

I’ll re-post the reasons I had for finding you suspicious:

[QUOTE=me]
The person who’s getting the most attention from me right now is Meeko. Perhaps it’s just your playing style, but Day 1 I felt like you were reading way too much into innocent (IMO) things people were saying and attributing to malice that which could easily be explained away (see #101, #149). Further, your FOSes are really fickle (#149 to #167 and back again in #192/ #193). These sound like you’re trying to convince yourself more than anything (or both you and Chip are scum).
[/quote]

Hope this clarifies things.

[ShadowFacts]

Hey everyone - sorry I’ve been absent the last couple days. I had to work yesterday away from my desk and today I’ve been ripping out a floor in one of my theatres. I’m going to try to get some desk time this afternoon to review.

[Meeko]

@HardlySanguine

Hope this clarifies things.

If you have a free week, with nothing to do, ask Special Ed to comment on “Meeko” and “Paranoia”. Then, tell him on the 8th day that you only had a week to listen to him.

In short, it is my play style. And it’s not the biggest issue of my style, either.

If I see someone making a case on someone else, I will consider moving my vote then. Until then, it’s staying put.

[Mahaloth]

**Again, the vast majority of the wizards just sat there, staring at their wands.

Vote Count:

Meeko(1): HardlySanguine

HardlySanguine(1): Meeko

Day ends in less than 72 hours.**

[Zeriel]

Y’know, I just find myself with not a lot to say in these games anymore. And it’s hard to shake that Malazan paranoia that everyone’s talking about me behind my back.

That said…Meeko, did you seriously cast suspicion on me (and two others) for a vote that you joined late?

And then voted OMGUS after all that?

vote Meeko

[ShadowFacts]

OK, I’m back. I want to take a look at some of the people who have been skating by in this game, not generating information, not voting or throwing on lame “Me, too” votes. I believe this is fertile ground for scum-hunting. I’ll start with someone who has left that impression on me so far this game, and I will see if my impression is valid: One and Only Wanderers.

Starting back on Day One, OAOW had a post about Rysto’s “be smart with your info” post that generated a lot of commentary. After the voting started and the mud began to be slung, he had three fluff posts 177, 179, and 185. Then after Omi’s bad vote for Chipa, OAOW votes for Omi in Post 214 (Omi’s 3rd vote) and then follows up with a clarification in post 215. Omi quickly takes the lead in voting and I posted my (in hindsight) incredibly stupid Post 219. OAOW responds to that with Post 220, which contains the following: “I have stated the reasons for my vote and am happy to be accountable if things go pear shaped. I think “me too” votes, or votes light on reasoning are the problem.” Then there is a follow-up in post 221.

All in all, I would say that while his posts were not super long or substantive, OAOW comes out of Day One with a whiff of Town to my nose.

Day Two is toast. So, on to Day Three. Red Skeezix comes under early heat, and OAOW is the 4th vote on him. It’s a bit of a “Me, too” vote for my taste, but he does give a reason which makes sense based on his Omi vote. There is a short follow-up in post 320 after Red’s claim reiterating his happiness with that vote. That’s it.

Day Three ends with OAOW looking neutral to me. Yes, he voted for Skeezix, but that train had left the station, and it would have been very strange for him not to do so based on his Omi vote. Minimal amount of participation is slightly troubling, but it was a fairly quiet day overall, so null tell for me.

Day Four begins with a post that he was away at sister’s wedding, and apologizing for his absence. Shortly thereafter he comes in with Post 419, a vote for Chronos for "
For the Godfather as vanilla being “most” expendable. This obviously presupposes no other vanilla’s and seems to be PIS like" This vote stuck out to me at the time as being - at best - a lazy “Me, too” vote. It’s vague and opportunistic, and is what first made me get queasy about the Chronos train, particularly given what I quoted from him on Day One about votes “light on reasoning.” OAOW comes back after Jimmy and I get into it with a somewhat vague defense of my LPN vote in post 466. He responds to a leading question from Jimmy in Post 473 but avoids the question.

Based on continued minimal play and the Chronos vote, OAOW comes out of Day Four looking either slightly scummy or slightly anti-town (or both).

Day Five features a couple of tiny posts responding to a question and arguing against a mass name claim. That’s it, though of course the Day is not over yet.
So, where does all that leave me? Well, to be honest, as I said above I came into this thinking that OAOW was skating and lurking in plain sight. That Chronos vote got him onto my mental “keep an eye on him” list. And while I can see possible scum motivation in all of his voting, I can equally see Town motivation. The record is a little slim, so I hope OAOW posts more frequently and with more than just one sentence drive-bys. But that is not enough for me to vote for OAOW at this time. I hope you enjoyed this episode of OAOW: Friend or Fiend?

[ShadowFacts]

@Zeriel

Y’know, I just find myself with not a lot to say in these games anymore.

Try harder. Silence is anti-Town.

[One_And_Only_Wanderers]

I havethought on this, and I do not like Meeko’s smudging of me and zeriel for voting Chronos, when he himself later joined the train
Chronos(8): Inner Stickler, Zeriel, OneandOnly, Storyteller, Guiri, LittlePlasticNinja, Meeko, Chipacabra

If I think I have found scum, I have no problem being early in teh chain, because I have no scum motivation of my own to hide.
vote Meeko