Harry Potter Mafia

And realising the above is a bit sparse.

8 people voted Chronos. Some thought he was scum. Some, it stands to reason knew he wasn’t. For those who thought he was scum, early votes are best. This is when they can still be discussed, and changed if need be.

You jumped on late Meeko - did you think Chronos was scum? If so, why the problem with me and zeriel specifically? Why did you vote Chronos?

WoW on Meeko, spoilered#63 Confirms
#101 In response to Rysto, Town needs to share info, questions Rysto’s motivation for his post
#127 Refers to Red’s response to clarify his stance on sharing information, giving scum a town blueprint is inevitable, wonders if Day 1 is doomed to be always the same
#128 Comments on previous game
#149 Comments on Chipa’s peekeresque voting style
#153 Is suspicious of Red’s vote on Chipa
#159 Asks Jimmy if mischaractization is sometimes OK
#167 Explains suspicions of Red but steps back from position
#191 Suspects that some of the comments about sharing are indirectly pointing at his actions in a previous game
#192 Questions Chipa about his game plan and a possible contradiction in his posts
#193 Votes Chipa for being a distraction, thinks that Red, Shadow and Rysto are also distracting
#272 “This” in response to OaOW’s comment on Drain’s death
#274 Fluff
#315 Suspects Red may be a bomb, game seems spoon-fed
#316 Notes that Inner has a similar suspicion re: bomb
#324 More comments re: bomb
#334 Votes Red “gimmie”, game is “sideways”
#374 “Sideways”, doesn’t see the point in playing
#375 Wonders if there’s a reason, color-wise, for the state of the game
#376 To Hardly, explains what he meant by the game being more advanced
#420 “Sideways”, yet another wagon, “The death of Potter, and win-cons based on that have obviously changed”
#421 “This” in response to Story’s comment
#441 Votes Chronos, “I can get behing the PIS Chronos slipped on”, more optimistic attitute towards game
#442 Corrects coding
#504 Believes Inner ignored hedges in Chronos’s comments on godfather and scum roles, doesn’t like timing or reasoning behind Zeriel or OaOW’s votes, thinks they have wrongly accused Chronos of being too specific
#512 Responds to vote from Hardly, votes back.
#515 Defends his playstyle, vote is staying
The things that stand out to me are:

  • The Day 1 vote on Chip for being a “distraction” over Red, Rysto and Shadow who were also distracting, and the comment “At best, you are a new player […] who doesn’t have a clue” to which Chip replied in #209 saying it was actually his first game
  • The pessimistic attitude towards the game despite Town having lynched 2 scum in 3 Days and the change in attitude after voting Chronos
  • The “FTR: I can get behind the PIS” vote reasoning contrasted with later accusations of OaOW who voted for apparently the exact same reasons
  • The OMGUS vote on Hardly based on a misunderstanding of his case against Meeko and refusal to move his vote: “If I see someone making a case on someone else, I will consider moving my vote then. Until then, it’s staying put.”

@ Meeko: What did you mean by: “The death of Potter, and win-cons based on that have obviously changed” in #420? Were your reasons for voting Chronos substantially different to OaOW’s? Do you think Hardly is scum?

Hey, folks, sorry to be quiet early in the day. Three factors at work here: (1) I wanted to avoid the “Mason-lead-the-Town” syndrome that seems to affect Towns when a Mason is semi-confirmed; (2) I was kind of hoping that a Scum player would be foolish enough to counterclaim me; and (3) I had a real-life issue that absorbed more time than I’d expected. I’ll catch up and post today.

**:crickets chirping:

The wizards feared speaking, for speaking can lead to accusations. Perhaps they would just hold their breaths and hope for the best.
**

:slight_smile:

**Vote Count

Meeko(3): Hardly, Zeriel, OneandOnly

Hardly(1): Meeko**

They are obviously practicing their non-verbal spell casting in preparation for the big battle.

**No one was saying anything and the Order of the Phoenix was just staring at each other, occasionally glaring, sometimes almost speaking, but not doing much of anything.

Until something unexpected happened.

They were on a (self-described) “well deserved” break from heavy conversation (heh) when they heard a cry from somewhere in the castle.

“No!!!” screamed one voice

“Avada Kedavra!!!” cried another.

The Order of the Phoenix scrambled back to the Great Hall.

And there was Meeko, laid out dead on the staff table.

He had not changed form. He was who they thought he was.
**
Meeko, who was Fleur Delacour is dead. Fleur had no additional powers beyond voting for the daily lynch.**

“What in the world?” said several wizards together.

It is still Day Five. Day Five ends in less than 48 hours.**

**Alive

  1. Hardlysanguine
  2. ShadowFacts
  3. OneandOnly Wanders
  4. Jimmy Chitwood
  5. Chipacabra
  6. Inner Stickler
  7. Zeriel
  8. Guiri
  9. Storyteller **

Dead:
**
Omi no Kami – Antonin Dolohov(Death Eater – no special powers)**
Drain Bead – Harry Potter(Order of the Phoenix Occlumens and Chosen One)
NormalPhase – Severus Snape(No Chosen Allignment)
Red Skeezix – Lord Voldemort(Death Eater – Leader and Occlumens)
LittlePlasticNinja – Alastar Moody (Order of the Phoenix – no special powers)
Rysto – Albus Dumbledore(Vote Charger/Protector – Had to choose one per Day/Night cycle)
Chronos – Horace Slughorn(Order of the Phoenix – no special powers)
LittlePlasticNinja – George Weasley(Order of the Phoenix – Loving Brother)
Meeko – Fleur Delacour(Order of the Phoenix – no special powers

What happened?

Was that a mod kill?

Meeko had a vote in before his death. His vote stands. The vote for Meeko are now removed, since you can’t vote for a dead player.

**
Vote Count:

Hardly(1): Meeko**

No.

OK, I’ve finally got some time to sit and muse.

First off, we sure talked ourselves into lynching the wrong dude. Sorry, Chronos. Frustratingly, even as I go back to review, tilt’s posts still ping me as scum.
I think what threw us off is that Chronos came in from the outside, and may have had speculation from the peanut gallery in his head that the rest of us haven’t encountered.

I’m not entirely sure where to begin, so let’s just go through all the survivors one at a time. Sorry that this is unorganized and not cross referenced and all that.

  1. Freudian Slit → Hardlysanguine
    Freudian didn’t do much besides lurk and drop, which doesn’t tell much of anything useful.

Hardly jumped in the middle of the Red shenanigans, and opted not to participate in any of the speculation.

When he did show up, he pointed suspicion immediately at Meeko.

Didn’t show up in the Chronos lynch until the end. Gave some analysis and some suspicions, but no vote.

Has been active today: His thinking is a little hard to follow, but he is making an effort to explain his actions. Also, he’d been mostly forgotten about. I think if he were scum, he could have laid low a while longer and avoided any attention. Pinging somewhat town to me, but not sure.

  1. ShadowFacts
    He started the train on Red, way back in day 1, when Red was trying to start a pile on me. Pretty sure Shadow is town.

  2. OneandOnly Wanderers
    Third on the bandwagon against Omi, which is the most suspicious vote.

Had the fourth vote on Red, just before the false claim. I find this actually kind of neutral, because I don’t know if the false claim had been planned the night before. If Red came up with it on the fly, then OaOW’s vote may have been cover. If Red planned it the night before, then OaOW’s vote is more likely a town sign.

Third on the bandwagon against Chronos.

  1. Jimmy Chitwood
    Second on the bandwagon against Omi, which is a somewhat town tell.
    Voted against Shadow when the Chronos bandwagon was in full steam.

  2. Chipacabra
    Town, obviously. :smiley:

  3. Inner Stickler
    He jumped on the red bandwagon after it was a foregone conclusion.
    Started the voting against Chronos

  4. Zeriel
    A late bandwagon vote against Red.
    Seconded the voting against Chronos

  5. Meeko
    Ah, Meeko. I have trouble getting a ping on Meeko either way; I can tell that his way of thinking of things is very different than mine, and motivations get lost in the translation.
    Right now, my gut feeling is that he is town. And possibly also a crazy person. :smiley:

  6. Guiri
    He made the first vote against Red after Red’s false reveal, which strongly pings town to me.

  7. Storyteller
    Pretty much a confirmed mason, so far.
    So, my top candidates for scum, in no particular order, are OaOW, Inner, and Zeriel.
    My top candidates for town are me, Shadow, Guiri, and Story.

I’m in the weeds about Hardly, Jimmy, and Meeko.

I really wish I had better evidence, but at this point I’m kind of operating on gut feeling and playing the odds. Right now, Zeriel is the one on my short list that just doesn’t feel town to me, so:
Vote Zeriel

Wait, what? Someone shot meeko while I was typing! I guess that takes him off my list. o.O

**Vote Count:

Hardly(1): Meeko

Zeriel(1): Chipacabra**

Huh.

My first guess would be Vigilante with the power to kill during the Day. If so, I say “Lousy shooting, Tex.” Looking for a silver lining, at least the rest of toDay will not be a Meeko-fest, so perhaps Town will get off its collective ass and get to work.

I plan to spotlight another player tonight like I did with OAOW last night and see what I come up with. I know who it will be, but am in the process of making dinner, so it will be in a couple hours.

Hokay. The scum knew that meeko was town. Since meeko was up on the chopping block, it seems unlikely that they’d spend a day kill on him. So that means meeko was killed by a townie or a third party, right?

Only assuming the day-kill was triggered recently. Probably, we can assume that, but… this is a closed game, after all.

Hm. Well, godspeed, Meeko.

I agree with Shadow; the most likely explanation seems to me that it was a town killer trying to accelerate the process.

Anyway, it’s something to talk about, so that’s something good. After Sanguine got on Meeko, Zeriel showed up with a fairly terse vote - the same pattern as with the Chronos vote: “I won’t be saying much, but here’s this point against somebody, vote.” Meeko was town, like Chronos was. Combine the low profile early votes on townies with the late votes on scum (sixth and final vote on Omi about 2 hours before the lynch @ #223; ninth on Skeezix, # 309) and you have a spotty record. Combine that with the push to out a mason and I’m with Chip.

Vote Zeriel

Well, crap, now you both stole my thunder. :frowning: Zeriel is who I was planning to profile. Despite you jumping the gun, however, I will proceed.

OK, Zeriel… Day One:
Post 126 - Comments on Rysto’s opening post
Post 138 - Petulantly disagrees with Drain Bead about prevalence of scum slips
Post 188 + 189 - Fluff plus pledge to re-read
Post 223 - Votes 6th for Omi (for having a “bad-for-town attitude”), but disagrees with Drain Bead, who is also voting for Omi, while doing so

My thoughts: Not much activity at all. Takes a few shots at Drain Bead, who was of course Our Hero, which could mean something or nothing. The vote for Omi is bad, though. Well, not the vote, but the reason for it and the swipe at Drain Bead while doing it. Also, it’s a total bandwagon vote.

Day Three:
Post 311 - Casts the 9th vote for Red Skeezix, calls it a “boring” vote. What’s more interesting about it is what he has to say about Guiri. Guiri said: “so it is likely he’s a scum claiming 3rd party. Why? No real idea. Somehow to protect or draw attention away from his buddies. What do you think?” Zeriel’s response is: "I think that’s an awfully odd thing to say, but I’m sure we’ll find out when Red flips after the lynch. I inherently refuse to believe that names are going to be meaningful in any closed colored game, because keeping the names meaningful makes the game somewhat more likely to be breakable with a mass claim.

Your saving grace is I can’t imagine any scum motivation for theorizing that he’s a scum claiming third party. Nor is there a town motivaiton–it’s not as though his scum or PFK status is going to be a mystery after the lynch, so at most he bought someone one extra day alive even if he is scum." This reads like a smudge to me, i.e. “I’m not saying you’re scum, but that was really weird. Hmmmm.” The use of “saving grace” is interesting as well. Of course, Guiri was right and Red was a scum claiming 3rd party.
Post 319 - Dismisses the possibility of a bomb in a closed set-up.
Post 323 - Again dismisses the idea that Red could be scum claiming 3rd party. Is still wrong :smiley:

My thoughts: Very little activity again. Another late bandwagon vote on scum, and another vote post that disses somebody else. Not promising.

Day Four:
Post 386 - Dismisses my [almost certainly wrong] suspicions of storyteller.
Post 418 - Votes 2nd on Chronos. Here is the whole reason: “I’m finding that Chronos’ statements about scum team makeup are/were a little too matter-of-fact and specific for me to be comfortable with.” It’s a bad vote without knowing Chronos’ status; it’s a terrible vote in hindsight knowing Chronos was Town. (Also says he’s going to be gone most of the rest of the week.)
Post 429 - Reacts strongly to storyteller’s mason claim, saying: "Your other half should NOT stay in the shadows, and in fact with one of you claimed, I am going to commit to voting for storyteller tomorrow unless his fellow mason confirms him.
You were IN monkgate, you know why it’s dangerous to have a mason claim sitting out where one kill can leave it in an unconfirmable state.
I am going to break one of my cardinal rules, now–the other mason ought come forward as soon as possible or this play makes very little sense. " This could be scum fishing for the other mason, but if so it’s amazingly obvious, and I’m actually inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt as I had a very similar initial reaction until I thought it through some more.
Post 434 - Responds to story’s sarcastic reaction to above
Post 447 - Ditto
Post 451 - Monkgate description

My thoughts: Actually more active than in previous days despite saying he would be away (this is a good thing, not a bad thing). The vote for Chronos stinks badly.

Day Five:
Post 519 - Votes for Meeko for an apparent voting contradiction. The vote post is very similar to his Chronos vote, i.e. slim reasoning and second vote on a target someone else started. Also contains this gem: “Y’know, I just find myself with not a lot to say in these games anymore.” :dubious:

This post is already long enough. Thoughts to follow.

Zeriel thoughts:

The voting record is extremely poor. Late votes on both scum we’ve caught, while simultaneously tossing a little dirt on other players. Early votes on two townies with slim reasoning, both times following someone else’s case. The other thing about those votes is that they’re…not sure how to put this…easy votes. That’s not the right term. What I mean is this: They are the kind of vote you can point to and say “Look, he did something really obviously scummy right there - Vote!” In Chronos’ case it was supposedly Perfect Information Syndrome, in Meeko’s it was seemingly contradicting himself. When I’ve played scum, those were the kinds of semi-legit things I would look for to hang a vote on.

Participation is minimal, though it did pick up a touch yesterday. Is here and voting, but not really contributing much, and not making any waves. Perfect scum “lurk in plain sight” strategy. The “I don’t have much to say” comment really rubs me the wrong way.

After that review, I am feeling confident about this one.

Vote Zeriel