Harry Potter Mafia

Vote Count:

Hardly(1): Meeko

Zeriel(3): Chipacabra, Jimmy, ShadowFacts

37 Hours remaining in the Day, folks.

Oh hey, I was playing mafia, that’s right.

I was gonna post earlier but Meeko’s death surprised me. One, that there’s a daykiller out and about and two befuddlement about why they chose meeko for the honor. As our newly departed would say, this game has gone sideways. I know it’s of little use to speculate on the how or why but I really hope that was a one shot deal and if it’s not, I really hope the player in question keeps it in his pants for the foreseeable future. Although now I’m tempted to reread and see if there’s a PO’ed party somewhere that I can spot. Or maybe it’s a lurker feeling irate.

Anyway, I’d like to hear from zeriel about the current discussion. I was gonna talk to meeko but unfortunately I missed the boat on that one.

Well that was unexpected. Back to the drawing board.

I also started a WoW on Zeriel yesterDay, I’ll post it anyway…#52 Confirms
#126 Comments on Rysto discussion and breadcrumbing
#138 To Drain, scum do slip up
#188 Joke votes Peeker
#189 Unvotes, re-reading to look for a “rip-roaring unequivocal accusation of scumminess”
#223 Seems to defend Omi’s vote for Chipa (subtle scumminess) to Drain but then votes Omi for his bad attitude
#224 NETA, clarification
#244-254 Fluff
#309 Refuses to believe names are meaningful. Votes for Red as “…there’s no possible pro-town reason to leave him alive.”
#319 Refuses to acknowledge possibility of jesters and bombs
#323 To OaOW, leashing an SK only works if the SK has claimed a non-exclusive win con
#351 Fluff
#386 To Shadow, doubts Story was defending Red
#418 Votes Chronos for comments on scum team, will be absent
#429 Second mason should claim, threatens to vote Story
#434 To Story, no response to comment. Could possibly see how strategy makes sense
#435 Comment on Story’s sarcasm not helping his fellow mason if Story is killed
#447 Thinks Story’s strategy is risky. Recalls Monkgate
#451 Explains Monkgate
#485 Fluff re: Monkgate
#517 Hasn’t got a lot to say, is paranoid. Votes Meeko for casting suspicion on other players and then OMGUS voting someone else
Things that jump out at me:

  • he’s commented on game mechanics, the meaning of color and other games, but hasn’t contributed much to the hunt for scum
  • He voted for Omi 6th, about 2 hours before the deadline “I think Oni’s desultory comments speak towards a fundamentally bad-for-town attitude (that is, that town can’t win until the scum hands us something to win with).”, did Omi say this? I couldn’t find a quote.
  • His vote for Chronos was based on statements about the scum team makeup that were “little too matter-of-fact and specific”. While he was matter-of-fact about Red being the most expendable, he hedged his comment about the team makeup, Chronos actually said “It’s my impression that around here, games structured around some canon generally have all of the Scum roles distinct, with (say) one Godfather, one Scum Roleblocker, one Scum Investigator, and one vanilla Scum.” - “my impression”, “generally”, “(say)” do not indicate “matter-of-fact”
  • His interaction with Story seemed honest and he appeared to back down once Story explained his strategy
  • His own attitude towards the game seems to be bad-for-town “Y’know, I just find myself with not a lot to say in these games anymore.”
  • Of the remaining players, he’s at the bottom of my trust-o-meter:

Vote Zeriel

Since no-one has counter-claimed Story and we know that George was a mason, I’ve updated the vote counts with color, E&OE:[spoiler]Day 1:
Shadowfacts(0): Chipacabra (114 [del]136[/del])
Tiltawhirl/Chronos(0): Chipacabra (136 [del]145[/del])
Chipacabra(3): Red Skeezix (139), Meeko (193), Ominokami (199)
Storyteller(0): Chipacabra (145 [del]162[/del])
Red Skeezix(2): ShadowFacts (152), Chipacabra (165)
FreudianSlit/HardlySanguine(1): Rysto (186)
Ominokami(6): DrainBead (203), JimmyChitwood (206), Oneandonly (214), Guiri (216), Ninja-v1 (218), Zeriel (223)
Not voting(6): ColdPhoenix/Normal, FreudianSlit/HardlySanguine, Inner Stickler, Pedescribe/LittlePlasticNinja, Storyteller, Tiltawhirl/Chronos

Day 3:
Red Skeezix(12): Rysto (280), ShadowFacts (284), Chipacabra (288), OneandOnly (289), JimmyChitwood (302), Guiri (303), Storyteller (305), InnerStickler (306), Zeriel (309), tiltawhirl/Chronos (322), Meeko (334), Ninja-v1 (335)
Rysto(1): Pedescribe/LittlePlasticNinja (296)
Pedescribe/LittlePlasticNinja(1): JimmyChitwood (299 [del]302[/del]), Red Skeezix (300)
Not voting(1): FreudianSlit/HardlySanguine

Day 4:
Pedescribe/LittlePlasticNinja(1): ShadowFacts (390)
Chronos(8): Inner Stickler (408), Zeriel (418), OneandOnly (419), Storyteller (424), Guiri (425), LittlePlasticNinja (440), Meeko (442), Chipacabra (445)
Storyteller(1): Chronos (427)
ShadowFacts(1): Jimmy (461)[/spoiler]Looking at the Day 1 non-voters, I think that 5 of them gave reasons or were substituted.

@ Inner Stickler, did you have a reason for not voting on Day 1?

@ Chipa, you were the 3rd vote on Red the next Day!

While this will probably undo your pings, I wasn’t the first to vote Red after the claim, it was Jimmy one post earlier.

Hey, if you guys haven’t figured out how I play by now, go ahead. I stand by my assessment that a mason who hasn’t been partner-verified is no mason at all. I don’t see the need to babble endlessly about a vote when I spot something scummy or inconsistent–ESPECIALLY in a game as quiet as this. I stand by my assessment that Red’s play was pretty much stupid as hell and completely useless coming from a scum who theoretically wanted to stay alive. Chronos has been known in games I’ve been in of making questionable assumptions (especially the program, and thank god that’s gone). Meeko’s vote and reasons for suspecting those of us who first voted for Chronos were not good.

Whatever. At this point my bet is that the scum are laying VERY low, probably voting early-to-middle against fellow scum if necessary (since that’s the current “third vote tell”, being late on a known scum even if you have no reason (like me voting Red) to vote for anyone else and can’t check on the game every 10 minutes).

grins “Extra! Extra! Zeriel gets lynched in the late midgame for crappy reasons! Sky still blue!”

At least when I’m quiet I’m still reading. Gimmie a break.

In keeping with my theories on likely scum behavioral patterns, Shadow or Chipacabra are both early jumpers on other scum.

Hardly’s lurking is also suspicious.

Purely defensively, I’m going to vote HardlySanguine.

**Vote Count:

Hardly(2): Meeko, Zeriel

Zeriel(4): Chipacabra, Jimmy, ShadowFacts, Guiri

About 26 1/2 hours to the end of the Day.**

Just so I’m clear on what you are saying here, do you believe that **Chipa **and I are likely scum? Or one of us but not the other?

I’m saying you have both done a behavior that I would consider a potential scum tell. I don’t find anyone currently alive, due to the relatively low volume of posts in general in this game, as a “likely” scum.

My vote is where it is because lurking is a valid scum strategy in these low-post-count games, and not voting at all is the most damning kind of lurking there is.

OK, fair enough. Again, just to make sure I’m not mis-reading you: the potential scum tell you see in me and Chipa is being “early jumpers on other scum,” right? I’m interested in hearing more about your “theories on likely scum behavioral patterns” that you mention above, if you wouldn’t mind expounding a bit. Thanks.

Essentially, I expect scum to be smart. This “scum joined the bandwagon late” thing has been a tell utilized (not without success) in some of the more recent previous games I’ve been in, and in my opinion it’s at the end of its useful life. I predict that smart scum will start voting somewhat earlier and more aggressively, especially on fellow scum. We as a group are very aware of bussing, and it seems foolish to presume that the scum will continue doing such when we’ve been looking for it. It’s seemed to me that these things have a useful half-life of about two games (compare to “third vote is scum” and such) and yet live on in our minds as valid even when they aren’t–I’ve BEEN scum, I have specifically voted in ways to look clean as a whistle when compared to the prevailing winds of “how scum vote”. And I’ve been caught by the kind of slips that I vote for others for.

I see the useful case against me as “participated not as much”, “voted relatively late on scum”, and “voted relatively early on town”. I’ll cop to the first one (even if I’m not the worst offender), I have explained above why I don’t think the second one is terribly relevant, and as for the third, I got more aggressive when Malazan ended and when I got back from my summer vacation. I am typically an aggressive voter for what I perceive as slips and inconsistent behavior, because they have been the single highest-percentage way I can personally hunt scum.

Since I’m addressing you, I’ll address the remaining parts of your WoW as well. I stand by my assessment of **Red’s **play as phenomenally, unpredictably incomprehensible (especially since, as he was making it up, he could have portrayed himself as the kind of SK we’d be able to keep as a pet and had a non-zero chance of pulling it off). I stand by my assessment of **storyteller’s **unilateral claim as equally incomprehensibly wrong, and I sincerely hope it doesn’t come back to bite us in the ass when LyLo comes around.

If I were a scum in this game, I’d be 2nd or 4th on a majority of votes for fellow scum. I can’t see any reason NOT to play that way as a scum.

I think you raise some interesting points that are worthy of discussion, but I have to run to a meeting, so I just want to respond to this right now:

I can think of two really, really good reasons from this game: early votes on Red Skeezix ended up leading to Omi’s lynch on Day One and Red’s own lynch on Day Three.

For everyone’s information:

I killed Meeko. I received a free bonus Day Kill as the result of George’s tragic death last Night, and I was required to use it. I had hoped that there would be a ton of conversation toDay, and that I could use the Day kill to wipe out a secondary target, in effect giving us collectively a free lynch. It… didn’t work out that way. We haven’t done much talking toDay, and we were headed for an inertia-based lynch of Meeko, so killing him seemed to be the least harmful way to use the power even if he did turn out to be Town (he hadn’t claimed yet, and I took a gamble that Meeko, if he had a power role, would be as eager to disclose it as he has been in the past).

@ Story, Meeko had just 3 votes, there were 6 other players who may have had a different opinion. As the most confirmed player, why didn’t you open it up for discussion? That would have stopped the silence. I doubt there was any way to interfere with a mid-Day kill so I don’t understand the secrecy.

Did you consider saying something in lieu of just shooting?

That’s the second time this game that **story **has made a weird play that involved information.

It will be interesting in the extreme to see who doesn’t vote at all today. Well, from the afterlife, I mean.

I couldn’t find a quote, either. I think Zeriel is ‘just’ mixing up his anti-town plays. Earlier in Day 1, people (Jimmy, Drain Bead, Meeko) were talking about scum slips (which is what I’m assuming **Zeriel **is talking about here. At this point in the game, Omi is accused of anti-town behavior for another reason: Voting for who is playing the most anti-town versus, voting for who she finds most scummy.

*Correct me if I’m wrong: You want to vote for someone who is more-or-less lurking (or who has been) and since there is already a vote on me, voting for me gives you more wiggle-room than voting for anyone else who has been lurking.

Pegging Zeriel for voting with the bandwagon, when so many other people are also doing that, seems strained. Assuming that Story is town, I have trouble with a scum Zeriel making a post arguing with **Story **on play style and urging LPN to come forward (*429). Shadow
already noted this.

All in all, **Zeriel **comes across as fairly neutral, to me.

*[SIZE=2]These two quotes are one post, ever time I try to combine them, though, they split apart on preview.


I’ve gone over most of the thread again and unfortunately nothing stands out to me. Everyone seems either neutral or slightly town. I’m going to give it a break for a few hours and then do another re-read, looking at those who I found slightly suspicious in earlier Days.
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Honestly? Partly, it’s that I didn’t trust that anything useful would be done with the information. We (and I include myself in this) haven’t exactly been covering ourselves with glory discussion-wise in the last Day or so.

Again, this isn’t exactly how I envisioned this happening. The way I envisioned it was, I would be able to kill the second-leading vote getter while letting the first vote getter die by lynch, thus doubling our information total even if both deaths were Town. The reason I didn’t mention it was that if the Scum knew I was going to be doing that, they might have played differently in terms of how they voted.

But then it came to mid-Day, and Meeko had a few diffident votes and there really wasn’t a second candidate at all. I didn’t think one was likely to emerge, not as long as Meeko sat drawing in easy votes. I actually considered claiming first, but:

(1) I was worried about something interfering with the kill;
(2) I was worried about something happening IRL that pulled me away from the computer - I think if I didn’t submit a kill, I’d have been modkilled;
(3) I thought there was a very high likelihood that if I claimed, we’d have frittered away the better part of two real-life days discussing the implications, while Meeko remained our collective primary target, leaving me to shoot in the dark. As it stands now, the Town as a whole must choose a second target, having already chosen a first (Meeko), doubling our information haul from this day’s voting.

There’s also:

(4) I sent a PM to Mahaloth saying, basically, “I’m going to kill Meeko. When will it happen?” - this to try to time things precisely. He replied, “right now,” and boom, Meeki was dead.