Has Susan Collins destroyed her chances in 2020?

As one of the two rational voices in the Republican Party (along with Lisa Murkowski), Susan Collins decided to do the wrong thing and vote to confirm Justice Kavanaugh. Then she doubled-down and gave a speech saying as long as you’re not convicted of a crime then you should be confirmed as a SCOTUS justice.

Now she may be the most hated person in Maine and any dream of her running against Trump in 2020 is gone AND there is the possibility she won’t be re-elected as Senator from Maine.

Did this one stance cost her her political future?

I hope so. She’s never been the moderate she’s claimed to be, and this vote made that clear for all to see.

Is there any data to support this opinion?

Was this a dream she had? Or was it your dream? This is literally the first mention I’ve heard of any notion that Collins might run against Trump in 2020.

There is always the possibility, but do you consider this the most likely outcome?

I doubt it.

She’s done and Cory Gardner is done.

Doesn’t Maine have a pretty solid conservative governor? It seems like the people of Maine vote much on personality and not politics.

I like how “batshit crazy” is now indistinguishable from “solid conservative.”

He first won the office 2010 with 38.1% of the vote.

The people of Maine had [DEL]four[/DEL] FIVE(!) different choices and they picked Governor LePage.

So what? He was in a 3 way race and also won reelection in 2014. Clinton got around 40% of the vote in 1992 in a 3 way race.

My point was that Maine is not such a hard core liberal state. Trump won an EV there and the state was fairly close. It elects a diversity of candidates from LePage to Collins to King. I’m not seeing how Collins’ vote for Kavanaugh makes her toast. If that was the case, then LePage would have never had a chance.

I listened to the entire speech and I think unlike quite a few in the process, she treated both Dr. Ford and the accused with respect, sincerity, and dignity. She did omit the mention of some things, like Kavanaugh’s conspiracy peddling. If she has any qualms toward the conspiracy-minded running rampant in the GOP in a way that would be affecting her career choices, I didn’t see any evidence here.

Before you can run in the general election you generally have to win your party’s primary election. If she have voted against Kavanaugh she would probably have had very strong competition in the Republican primary.

And, per wiki, last time around she beat the Democrat 68.4% to 31.6%.

That speech was the final straw for me. She said that the burden of proof of his guilt was not as high as “beyond a reasonable doubt,” but rather "more likely than not. So she takes the word of a man who has lied multiple times during the process, and has every reason to lie, vs. a woman who has no reason to lie. If that isn’t an insult to women I don’t know what is. She’d have been so much better off not making the burden of proof argument at all.

You know that, aside from Kavanaugh and Ford, there were at least three other people alleged to have been at the party, and that one of those was alleged to have been in the room when the assault happened, right? Do you think their memories / lack thereof might have had an effect on Collins’ opinion?

Alleged.

IMHO her base here in Maine is sorely disappointed in her. First she got screwed on the tax cut and then she caved on the nomination. I’m proud she’s a moderate. But I’m increasingly disenchanted with her increasingly slavish following of the Trumpian party line. I had been hoping she would be the Margaret Chase Smith of this generation.

FiveThirtyEight.com: Collins votes with Trump 78.5% of votes versus a predicted 47.5% based on Trump’s electoral margin. She may not be a dedicated Trumpeter, but she resembles one closely enough that it doesn’t really matter. Her voting record has never really been all that liberal despite views to the contrary, and while the Kavanaugh vote seems calculated to make her seem as if she is being circumspect and stentorian, it isn’t as if she had much choice if she wanted RNC support in a 2020 Senate primary or hypothetical run as governor. If there was ever an issue to fall on your sword over in this session this was it, and instead she did the sword-swallowing trick of making it seem like she was giving weighty consideration while actually ending up in the exact position she had to adopt to remain in Republican politics.

It has been that way for a long time, from Goldwater through Gingrich and beyond. There are just a lot more of them popping out of the woodwork and driving whatever was left of the moderate, pragmatist Republican party of Eisenhower running for the hills. Now it’s like a city in a zombie movie with the crazies looking for braaaaaaaaaains.

Stranger

Mainer checking in. I hope she’s done. I’ll volunteer for her opponent. She’s pretty unpopular at the moment round these parts.

We have LePage because he got Nader’ed in (several liberals split the votes). Now we have ranked choice voting, under which LePage would not have been elected. Maine’s liberal bastion is Portland and surrounding areas up and down the coast and inland a little ways. I’d also say mid-Maine, the capital (Augusta) and Bangor, is pretty lefty. All tolled, that encompasses maybe 500,000 people - half the population. Everywhere else is cow-tipping central. However, cells of hippies occupy great expanses as well. Overall, I’d tip Maine as left-leaning, with loud righties. Business as usual.

“Predicted voting based on Trump’s electoral margin” is really stupid for a number or freasons. Probably most importantly, it’s assuming that the group of people who voted for Collins but not for Trump will not vote for Collins unless she breaks with Trump most of the time. I’m sure there were people who voted against Trump and for Collins who agree with most of the bills Trump has supported (especially since most of what Trump has supported is just the mainline GOP agenda). The stat is basically trying to predict marginal differences in voting habits based on absolute electoral results.

Honestly I think some liberals got excited that Collins voted against the healthcare repeal - but she was against it because she wanted to do her plan of giving block grants to states, plus she wanted to preserve other federal funding, not because she actually supports the ACA.

Lots of it…mostly in the form of pictures of dead presidents…

Site taking donations for Susan Collins’ challenger crashed from overload

Gotta love her interview with**60 Minutes**:

Does the phrase “No shit, Sherlock” ring a bell? :smack: Protip: it’s only bribery if they offer you money for your vote.