The Republican talking point today is all about Republican enthusiasm for the upcoming midterms – and how it’s all ramped up due to how mean the Democrats are being to poor Brett Kavanaugh.
This is countered by last week’s Democratic talking point, that the Republicans are now the party of sexual abuse enablers and can kiss off the women’s vote forever.
Did the Democrats overplay their hand with their objections to Kavanaugh?
I personally think that the Hearings Part 1 – protesters in the gallery, Kamala Harris’ odd “gotcha” line of questioning concerning Kavanaugh and conversations with some mysterious persons at some law firm – were not a good look for the Democrats. But I think Part 2, Ford vs Kavanaugh, made the Republicans look worse.
I also think having Kavanaugh out of the news for the next month will make the question somewhat moot.
There’s still a month after the inevitable confirmation for voters to get distracted by the next shiny object. Republican enthusiasm is a moot point, they ALWAYS vote for EVERY election. What matters is Democratic enthusiasm which I believe is going to result in an unprecedented midterm turnout.
Who, out there, could have possibly been on the fence about Trump before this, but said, oh, hey, the rest, no problem; but this, here, will make me vote, see?
Is there some pool of people who weren’t already set on this, but only now see a call to action? If so, then (a) what the heck took them so long? And (b) what would it take to get them back, if they were somewhere from ‘shrugging’ to ‘okay’?
That and the continuing, braying disrespect toward women practiced by the Abuser in Chief. But that seems to be the principal takeaway from the Kavanaugh fiasco. Lets see how the Republicans do at the midterms with…oh, say, 10-20% of the female vote.
We’ll see, but if additional accusers or evidence comes forward afterwards, confirming Kavanaugh could be the absolute best case scenario for the Democrats. It might help them win both houses in the midterms, and if there’s enough evidence, force Kavanaugh to step down, leaving an open seat and a Democratic Senate for the next two years.
Assuming that the Kavanaugh process has “ginned up enthusiasm” as they say; the question is: how does that enthusiasm turn into votes? And for whom – if there are more Republican voters turning out, who will they vote for?
Trump is not on the ballot
Candidates for the House have nothing to do with SCOTUS nominations
It could very well be a factor in an extremely small number of toss-up Senate races – ie, I could see Beto and Cruz debating on how they did/would have voted. But the Senate is not likely to flip Democratic this year, regardless.
In theory, increased Republican turnout could turn into more votes for Republican House candidates; but not likely to be a determining factor in flipping the House blue.
I’m not so sure about that. Yeah, they’ll still support Republicans more than better educated women, but I think there’s going to be noticeably less support from them than in 2016. In gerrymandered districts that are both rural and suburban, that might be enough to flip a seat.
Many, many people. In any direction and on any topic or issue. You are making the mistake of looking at the world through you-colored glasses ;). Many voters are only occasional voters and it takes a ‘straw that broke the camels back’( or whatever the inspiration )moment to motivate them.
Again this goes for any election at any time over any issue and with any candidate.
Just to depress you, I’ll note that I have been paying close attention to Nate Silver’s House model and Democratic chances of taking the House have been dropping this past week or two. From a high of ~80% to ~75-76% currently. Not a huge change and just as likely to be statistical noise. But things aren’t trending positively.
Never mistake your gut feeling about what should happen, with what will actually happen.
This downer note brought to you by Eeyore Predictions, introducing depressed rays of sunshine into everyone’s lives since 1968.
I saw a BBC analyst saying something similar, that the Republican base was really motivated by the fight (not yet ended of course), and that is one of the reasons that the ‘Pubs did not pull the nomination when things started going south. That mid term elections are always about energizing the base.
Where the fuck did the Beebs great analysts go during the Brexit campaign.:mad:
It does appear that, at the very least, the big Democratic gains I had expected/hoped for following the Kavanaugh hearing aren’t materializing. Once again I overestimate the voters.
Overall, though, the picture is inconclusive and fairly static in the long run. The GOP’s chances of winning the House have indeed improved in the last week…but still aren’t as good as they were a month ago, and all the movement has been within a relatively narrow range.
Silver isn’t impressed by the argument that this is turning out the GOP base; polls continue to show that enthusiasm is much higher on the Democratic side.
The Senate is looking worse, though, mostly due to Heitkamp’s declining poll numbers. Some of that could be Kavanaugh-related, but then all the other red state Dems are doing OK, so maybe North Dakota just sucks.
His bottom line:
That first sentence tells you about all you need to know about the state of American politics.:smack:
I think if Kavanaugh is not affirmed by Nov (VERY unlikely), that Republicans will be mad as hell and the Senate will be a shoe-in. I think if he is affirmed in the next couple days, that Republicans will have pretty much forgotten about Kavanaugh, democrats will still be at 11 because they are always at 11, and the senate will be less certain.
What I can’t believe is that 28% of people are still undecided. Who are these people? I can’t think of a single poster here who hasn’t formed an opinion, and certainly not anyone I know IRL.
Interestingly, Democratic men are more likely than Democratic women to oppose the nomination. Overall, though, there’s a nine point gender gap, with women 34-28 against and men 41-38 for. The plurality of women are still undecided, though!
The nation overall is 37-35 against, and independents are 37-32 for, so that ain’t great. I can’t find a breakdown for independents by gender, though, which I would be really interested in.
Another tidbit: 25% of Pubs and 33% of Dems are either undecided or bucking the party line, which somewhat works against the narrative of this being a big deal wrt base turnout.
We’ve never had a circus quite like this before, so I wouldn’t rely too much on past experience. But said experience says clearly that political nerds always overestimate the extent to which actual voters care about Supreme Court nominations.
Currently polls are showing a 0.5% advantage for the Republicans in likely voter, as opposed to registered voter, polls. This is typically 4-5% in midterm elections, so that suggests very good Dem turnout. Of course, most of that is based on polls taken before last week’s events, so not directly relevant to this thread.