Brett Kavanaugh support ratings, does it make sense and does it affect midterms

I’m a little bit confused by Kavanaugh’s level of support for his confirmation.

Graph of net support for confirmation is broken down by both gender and political identification (rep, ind, dem)

  1. Why did support among republican women grow by bigger margins than support among republican men after the rape allegations came out?

  2. Why did independent men see their support for Kavanaugh drop more than independent women?

  3. Why did democratic women see their support drop more than democratic men (who actually saw their support grow by 3%)?

I guess I assumed that the attempted rape allegations would decrease support for Kavanaugh among women and not have much impact among men (that is my understanding of what happened with Roy Moore and his accusations sadly. Men didn’t care, women cared but only a little bit).

But this chart implies that the numbers are all over the place. Republican women improved their desire for confirmation by 8% (GOP men only by 5%). Independent men saw their support drop by 43 points, but Ind women only by 12. Democratic women saw their support drop by 14 points, but dem men saw their support go up by 3?

Does any of this imply anything about the midterm? My understanding is that the 2018 midterm would in part be a midterm where female turnout could decide elections. The gender gap for 2018 is supposed to be much higher than 2014 or 2010.

I guess I’m not sure what to make of how people responded to Kavanaugh pre and post attempted rape accusation. Why aren’t women as a whole recoiling from him? Why are democratic men more supportive of him? Why are independent men the only men who abandoned him? Why do GOP women see their support grow by more than GOP men? Why did Ind. men abandon him more than Ind. women?

I know the margin of error is 3.27%, but evenso that means at best, Kavanaughs attempted rape accusations didn’t cost him much/any support among democratic men.

If I had to venture a guess, it depends on the media consumed. Liberal leaning media is about ready to have to accuser annointed for Sainthood and him burnt at the stake.

Conservatives seem to be peddling the lying libtard line.

No. Non-conservatives are suggesting maybe we should investigate the allegations before giving this guy a lifetime appointment to a major political post.

Conservatives are saying that’s the equivalent of burning somebody at the stake. They seem to be concerned that if we stop and think about this first, we might not do it.

These are the same conservatives who were willing to have a seat on the Supreme Court stay vacant for a record 293 days in 2016.

We had multiple threads on this, so I am not going to discuss it here. My post was not about the merits of the matter (I personally find it sans any at present time), just as potential explanation as to why such a result as displayed in the OP has been seen.

I think “sex loyalty” is a little harder to predict than “race loyalty”. Mainly because there are only 2 and in order to survive they have to hang out together all the time and create tiny humans of both sexes that they are also somewhat compelled to empathize with for survival purposes. For example, a woman who supposedly should automatically hate Brett Kavanaugh for being an accused rapist, might also have a son that she doesn’t want to see railroaded by a standard where burden of proof has shifted from the accuser to the accused. Just an example.

Roy moore lost because conservative women stayed home. In a normal election, female turnout is higher than male turnout (normally about 53/47 between the genders). however in Roy Moore’s case, the % of republican voters who were male outnumbered female voters. 35% of voters were white men, but only 31% of voters were white women. Meanwhile, the breakdown of black voters was 17/11 for women vs men.

Lots of right wing white women stayed home rather than vote for Moore.

However for Kavanaugh I’m not seeing any kind of pattern in how the genders respond to his sex crimes accusation. GOP women like him more, Ind men like him less, and dem women like him less.

Thanks for posting these statistics.

My run at a potential answer: differences seen in support (and changes in support) between Roy Moore and Brett Kavanaugh have to do with two factors:

  1. What is being accused: an older man chasing young teens, versus a teenager assualting another teen. As previously mentioned in the thread, some ‘men not abandoning Kavanaugh’ results (regardless of party) may have to do with men identifying with the Kavanaugh story and being disgusted by the Moore story. Men might feel empathy for Kavanaugh that they decidedly did not feel for Moore.

  2. What is at stake: In Moore’s case, a Senate seat; in Kavanaugh’s case, the Supreme Court. To put it bluntly, women who define themselves as ‘saving the babies’ would be much more motivated to care about the Supreme Court seat than the Senate seat, because SCOTUS has much more power to ‘save the babies.’ This could translate into continued support for Kavanaugh–a willingness to overlook the allegations ‘because so much is at stake.’

So, in broad outlines, that’s my rough stab at answering your question. I will say, additionally, that the margin of error you mention could have a lot to do with the “independent men versus Democratic men” stats and similar apparent differences, which may not be as significant as they look in the raw results.

You’re reading statistical significance where it doesn’t exist.

  1. The graph compares two polls with the same overall MOE, 3.27%. When the MOE is the same a statistically significant change equals 1.41 * the MOE. (Cite and discussion that includes the formula to compute when MOE is not the same. In this case that gives us 4.61% rounding to 5% since the chart is in whole numbers. Support for Kavanagh didn’t change for Republican Men or Democratic Men.

  2. The comparison you are making is between subgroups of the larger sample size. There’s an issue with that. From a Pew article on interpreting polls(my bold):

Republican women probably didn’t have a significant change once we take into account a larger subgroup MOE. The difference between polls only changed by 8 points for them. The difference is quite possibly just statistical noise we can ignore. The only groups that look like they probably saw real change is Democratic women and Independents regardless of gender. That alters a number of the questions in the OP.

If you’re gonna refuse to back up your nasty straw-men hyperbolic claims, it would be super keen if you wouldn’t make 'em in the first place.

By “annointed for Sainthood,” perhaps you mean “listened to.”

By “burnt at the stake,” perhaps you mean, “Not given a lifetime appointment to one of the highest government positions on the planet.”

By saying things accurately instead of nastily, your claim suddenly becomes, y’know, less shitty.

Mostly agree. Still it would not surprise to see some circling of the wagons on team GOP in which women who identify as GOP are more tribe GOP than tribe female. Team D was already pretty much in the against camp and sure not too hard to think that the specifics could throw a few women who had thought at least could be worse to the maybe it couldn’t be worse. Independents are simply thinking the accusation is likely true and that he is therefore a liar. Both men and women Independents do not want a liar on the SCOTUS.

As to does it affect midterms?

Good question.

Pushing Independents farther away from the R side would be points D but revving up the fairly unenthused R base the wee bit would counter it. Might be a wash. The D side is already enthused.

You do have to take account of age nowadays. Around 30-32yo it changes completely - under 30s occupy another planet for this stuff.

To put some numbers to your assertion from this Fox poll. (42B).

45 year old plus is split 35/35 on believing her to him. Under 45 believe her 37% and him 25%. Biggest under 45 is “don’t know” at 39%.

So how do you think this plays out in midterms?

I disagree with number 2 which is what I don’t understand about the vehement defense of Kavanaugh. The alternative to Roy Moore was Doug Jones, and he might be the difference between a Democratic vs. Republican senate after the midterms. On the other hand, the alternative to Kavanaugh is some other conservative judge who would probably rule the same way, but doesn’t have the personal baggage.

ETA: The senate seats in red states are also somewhat at stake. Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill are now less likely to lose votes by going against Kavanaugh than they would have by voting against some other random conservative judge with no history of sexual assault allegations.

At this point, they’d have to really rush the confirmation process on a new nominee to get him/her seated before the elections, even assuming nothing untoward comes up about the new nominee. If the Republicans lose the Senate, which would require them to lose the national popular vote by a massive landslide, they’d then have to decide whether they wanted to flagrantly disrespect the will of the voters by forcing the nomination through as a lame duck majority. So that’s the scenario they desperately want to avoid.

In other words, although the most likely outcome of Kavanaugh’s withdrawal would be the confirmation of some equally conservative Justice, the worst case scenario is that they don’t get anyone confirmed at all before the Democratic majority takes over and all confirmations cease until 2021.

It would take them all of three seconds to make that decision, and 2 of those would be spent thinking about lunch.

Oh, yeah, I’d expect they’d do it if they had to, but they’d really rather not be in that position.

Now that we are this side of that event can we speculate how this impacts midterms from here?

Does the nature of the impact matter much if he is voted confirmed or not now?

The GOP played hard to the base and impact may be not much different win or lose.

Will this rev up their enthusiasm?

Will it move those movable to vote against them?

So far the process has not hurt them in the tracker.

Well, apparently Senators Collins, Murkowski, Manchin, Corker and a couple of others that the Democrats were targeting have all said that they are now going to vote FOR Kavanaugh. And the committee vote is going to be held tomorrow, and the full Senate vote on Saturday.

Since the Republicans wouldn’t be rushing the vote if they didn’t have the votes lined up, I’d say that this circus today backfired on the Democrats.

Also, a number of prominent Never Trumpers have tweeted today saying that they were now more likely to vote for Trump in 2020, just because they will not support Democrats in any way.

Do you have a cite on that? The current story on the Washington Post says:

However it goes, and I have not heard how some of those few will go, I am asking about voters’ reactions. We have another thread or so about the rest.

This played out the #metoo scenario pretty hard. A very credible victim coming forward at significant personal costs. The accused angry about how the charge has ruined his life and “destroyed his family”.

Red meat is red meat but what will be the impact on midterms?