I’m a little bit confused by Kavanaugh’s level of support for his confirmation.
Graph of net support for confirmation is broken down by both gender and political identification (rep, ind, dem)
Why did support among republican women grow by bigger margins than support among republican men after the rape allegations came out?
Why did independent men see their support for Kavanaugh drop more than independent women?
Why did democratic women see their support drop more than democratic men (who actually saw their support grow by 3%)?
I guess I assumed that the attempted rape allegations would decrease support for Kavanaugh among women and not have much impact among men (that is my understanding of what happened with Roy Moore and his accusations sadly. Men didn’t care, women cared but only a little bit).
But this chart implies that the numbers are all over the place. Republican women improved their desire for confirmation by 8% (GOP men only by 5%). Independent men saw their support drop by 43 points, but Ind women only by 12. Democratic women saw their support drop by 14 points, but dem men saw their support go up by 3?
Does any of this imply anything about the midterm? My understanding is that the 2018 midterm would in part be a midterm where female turnout could decide elections. The gender gap for 2018 is supposed to be much higher than 2014 or 2010.
I guess I’m not sure what to make of how people responded to Kavanaugh pre and post attempted rape accusation. Why aren’t women as a whole recoiling from him? Why are democratic men more supportive of him? Why are independent men the only men who abandoned him? Why do GOP women see their support grow by more than GOP men? Why did Ind. men abandon him more than Ind. women?
I know the margin of error is 3.27%, but evenso that means at best, Kavanaughs attempted rape accusations didn’t cost him much/any support among democratic men.