Has high-tech developed as far as it is going to go?
Has the electronic revolution passed the point of causing major social changes?
Sure there will be plenty of new bells and whistles. DVD may replace VCR machines. MP3 may replace CD.Maybe Tower Records stores will disappear when file-sharing becomes more common.
But these changes are no more important than things that happened 40 years ago–TV replaced redio, then FM radio replaced AM. Record albums (sold in special music stores) replaced 45 rpm singles (sold at Woolworth’s and 5-and-dime stores.)
In the last decade: the cell phone changed our society. 55-channel cable TV changed our society. The internet changed society (How would I live without this forum?)
BUT:Palm-size organizers, GPS receivers and other gadgets are nice, but they don’t revolutionize society.
Are there any new developing technologies that will create new social changes? Or are we in for a boring decade or two?
An AIDS vaccine might change things. Changes in the way we gather/exploit/reuse energy resources are under investigation. The civil libertties vs. technology fight isn’t over by a long shot.
And I doubt the next couple of decades will be boring, as the world’s got quite a bit of shaking out to do. The maturation of the EU will be interesting to watch, but more lively might be watching the Middle East move several centuries forward in a few years.
You’re only looking short-term at things. When you first heard of the internet did you think of things like Napster? Did you think of things like webtoons? Most technological advances are only seen as a revolution in hindsight. When CDs were first introduced 99.999999% of the population thought that they’d only be used for music, now try to find a computer program that’s sold on a floppy. High speed internet access is becoming more common and with that will come more changes.
PCs are starting to replace many home electronics, so I don’t think that it’ll be too long before every PC sold is basically your stereo, video recorder, TV and game machine, as well as being a computer.
Another thing that you’re going to see happening is a change in the way kids are raised because of all this technology. Not quite 20 years ago, I was dating a girl whose parents didn’t like me because they felt that I was from the wrong side of the tracks. They forbade us to have any contact with one another, and during the time that we dated, it was a struggle for her and I to stay in touch without her parents knowing about it. Today, with cellphones being as common as bird crap, e-mail, and all the other goodies the internet provides, it’d be a cinch for us to stay in touch.
I’m also wondering what’s going to happen with the kiddie porn laws. Had I had access to things like webcams and the internet when I was in high school, no doubt that my then girlfriend and I would have been e-mailing nekkid pictures of one another back and forth. Since we would both have been underage at the time, that would have made the stuff illegal. Sooner or later there’s going to be a court case dealing with such things, and it’s going to get “interesting” when SCOTUS (and it will wind up there, I’m sure) hands down it’s ruling on the matter.
I think the pace of technological change is actually increasing rather than coming to and end. In terms of using technology to run a business, the last use of the internet to connect a business with customers and suppliers has completely revolutionized the way many companies do business. Dell is probably the best example of this, but also look at the way Walmart and FedEx use technology to improve their service.
From a consumer standpoint, I think biotechnology and genetics wiill be the next quantum leap although entertainment will also be overhauled once broadband really takes hold. It isn’t difficult to envisage a scenario where the consumer pays a monthly fee and is able, on demand, to download TV, music, games and movies via the computer.
The last entity to use the internet to manage their “business” will be the government. It is already beginning to happen but sooner or later dealing with the most common government entities (DMV, IRS etc.) should be an order of magnitude less painful than it is now.
The biggest single change is going to be the effective elimination of country borders and I think we’ll end up with a basic set of unified laws governing many aspects of life. If you consider business today, R&D, manufacturing and customer service is, for many businesses, a global activity. As this globalization continues, and governments sign multi-lateral trade and immigration agreements, it will become easier and easier for people to move around the world. This will most likely have the biggest impact on an individuals life over the next 20 or 30 years.
The common phrase “the world is a small place” is becoming more and more realistic as time progresses. People are learning far more about other cultures than they have in the past which hopefully will lead to a better understanding and a more peaceful planet. This won’t happen quickly, but I think that over the next 30 or so years, we will see a lot of changes which will make the country you are born in significantly less important than it is now. I think people will just move to where the work they want to do is. This will also lead to more and more mixed ethnicity children being born which in turn will lead to fewer and fewer “self contained” countries.