So Moore’s support among women has dropped from 41% down to 32%. Support for Jones has gone from 43% to 58% among women.
I suppose it is good about 1/4 of female GOP voters have left Moore. But has his behavior affected his standing among men? I read somewhere it is about the same as it was before all this happened.
If women make up a little over half of voters, and there has been a net 24 point move away from Moore and towards Jones, doesn’t that explain pretty much all the change in the polls? A 24 point net gain among half the electorate would work out to a 12 point net change among the total electorate.
Basically, are men affected by Moores behavior? Is it causing men to abandon Moore, and for undecideds to become Jones supporters?
Sure; many men who didn’t know or care about him before now despise him.
However, what matters for this election isn’t men in general, but the men who would be inclined to vote for Moore if this scandal never broke. And I see no reason to think that many of the men who would vote for him at all would care.
Doing a superficial calculation of the math, it seems like most of the polling changes that took it from a toss up race to a Jones winning race pretty much all came from women leaving Moore and joining Jones.
So I don’t know if there has been any kind of reassignment among men. Are undecided men joining Jones, or are male Moore supporters abandoning Moore to become non-voters or Jones voters the way women are?