He Hate Me FF keeper league - year 8

The Game Room
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Quentin’s JAMmers - Jules Andre
1 (8) Ryan Mathews
2 (21) Steve Smith
3 (36) Jonathan Stewart
4 (49) LeSean McCoy - Keeper
5 (64) Malcom Floyd
6 (77) Mike Wallace*
7 (92) Donovan McNabb
8 (105) Bernard Berrian
9 (120) Fred Taylor
10 (133) Matt Ryan - Keeper
11 (148) Larry Johnson*
12 (161) Brent Celek - Keeper
13 (176) Legedu Naanee
14 (189) Indianapolis
15 (204) Keiland Williams
16 (217) Robbie Gould

QB - Donovan McNabb, Matt Ryan
I’m way down on McNabb this season. McNabb has been a longtime fantasy cocktease (Philly fans might say an actual cocktease too) and I’m not sure that the move to Washington will be anything close to a lateral move for him. Shanahan’s typically had strong systems but I don’t see it being implemented overnight and Andy Reid for all his flaws can run a passing offense like no one else. The weapons in Washington are a big step down from those in Philly and Shanny will run the ball more than Reid, not that that’s hard to do. You waited forever on a QB and got McNabb at a good price so that’s all good, but I suspect McNabb will fall well below expectations and below replacement level.

Ryan is a strong keeper and it’s unclear who between he and McNabb will be the starter for you. Ryan is one of those guys who’s a better actual QB than a fantasy QB and if I’m correct about a resurgent year for Turner that could eat into Ryan’s attempts. I think Gonzo will age a lot and besides Roddy White there isn’t a lot of help for Ryan in the passing game. You could have quite a bit of success playing QB roulette with the matchups, an uncommon solution at QB. It’s worth a shot and you got by fairly cheap.

RB - Ryan Mathews, Jonathan Stewart, LeSean McCoy, Fred Taylor, Larry Johnson, Keiland Williams*
Ryan Matthews may have been the right pick there but I would really hate to be relying on a rookie running back as my bell cow. Everyone is saying the right things and I love what I saw of him in the preseason, he looked especially potent against the Bears back in week 1, but I don’t think the kid can withstand a full season of wear and tear. The Chargers will run the ball well, Norv is good at that, but their offensive line isn’t great and he’ll have to bust his ass for those yards. I find it utterly dumbfounding that the Chargers are basically entering this season with one traditional running back on their roster. The kid might be hamburger by week 9. McCoy is probably your true RB2 and I have many of the same concerns about him as I do about Matthews. He’s young and will be carrying a big load trying to replace a All Star. Unlike Matthews he’s got a little help in Mike Bell and Reid doesn’t pound the ball nearly to the extent of Turner but they are asking a whole lot of McCoy. From a fantasy perspective you have to love having 2 backs who are going to get close to all their teams carries but if it means you’re without one of them by mid-season it might not feel like a blessing. Nevertheless, this is a good situation.

As a DeAngelo Williams owner I sincerely hope Stewart is underwhelming and under-performs that 3rd round pick but the guy has a ton of talent and might be entering this season as healthy as ever. Williams will get the lions share of the carries but Stewart will get work even if Williams is healthy. It’s not entirely clear if you can trust Stewart as your flex until you see what the splits are going to look like in Carolina but the past history bodes well. Still, he’s officially a backup as a potential starter and 3rd round pick. Taylor is the Pats back that seems to be currently at the top of the pile but I think I’d prefer Maroney, my gut tells me that he’ll end up being the most reliable of the group. Taylor has never been durable and after last season I’m not sure what odds I’d give on him starting even 8 games, still that’s a nice value and a nice upside pick. If he gets you through the bye weeks count yourself as blessed.

You nabbed a pair of Redskins backups and if Portis falls apart you should be sitting pretty. You’re obviously a believer in the Shanahan running attack and I think there’s good reason for that. Of the two I think Williams will end up being the favored guy, I just don’t trust grandmama to not piss off Shanny, but regardless you’ve got the position covered. If Portis stays healthy and productive you might regret plugging up 2 roster spots though. Nice values and both are potential keepers.

WR - Steve Smith, Malcom Floyd, Mike Wallace, Bernard Berrian, Legedu Naanee*
For about 3 years I’ve been saying stay away from Steve Smith and he’s been proving me wrong more often than not. Can he continue to succeed this year with a new QB and another layer or rubber gone from the tires? His numbers were pretty good when Moore took over at the end of last season and if that’s indicative you should be sitting pretty. The biggest issue is that I think you might have been better served to grab Brady with that pick instead of taking the last WR of the tier. Brady is a much more sure of a bet than Steve Smith at this point. Between Floyd and Wallace I’m not sure which I’d rank as you number two. I think Wallace is probably the better of the two, doubly so when Big Ben gets back, but if VJax is gone for good there’s going to be a lot of balls going Floyd’s way. Either way you’ve got two fantastic options and if Stewart is to iffy I think you’ll be good with using one as your flex. The best WR on two offenses who throw a lot in the middle of the draft. Really nice work.

Berrian is going to be the guy to get the bulk of the benefit from Rice’s injury and while I think the Vikings offense will take a slide I think Berrian is in for a nice bump in production. Awesome value pick. In Naanee you stole the guy I badly wanted, you prick. So far you’ve got 3 Chargers, 3 Redskins and 2 Panthers. Between Naanee and Floyd you’ve got the SD passing attack covered and as a guy relying on Rivers to lead my team I can’t really say that either guy is going to disappoint. Fantastic pick all around, after Smith this is my dream WR corps. I had each of these guys as players I was targeting. I’m jealous…I think you should trade them to me.

TE - Brent Celek
He’s a great keeper but I have concerns about the entire Philly attack. Swapping QBs is never a seamless transition and it’s unclear how much Kolb will favor the tight end in that offense and especially in the redzone. As a late keeper there’s no reason to dislike the pick but I’m down on Celek a little more than most and think it’s unlikely he matches last seasons numbers.

DEF - Indianapolis
I don’t think you’ll be very happy with this defense but you took them late and I bet you’re planning on playing a little free agent roulette so I won’t burn too many calories discussing them. Opening the season against Houston is less than ideal though.

**K - Robbie Gould **
Bears kicker, last round, I like it. Gould’s big Achilles is that he simply doesn’t have a deep leg, you won’t be getting many long range bonuses if he’s your long term kicker. He’s accurate as all get out and the Bears are conservative and struggle in the redzone so that helps you. He kicks in the cold and wind which is a problem. That’s about 50 words to many on a kicker, unless I’m complaining about mine.

This is an outstanding team that is really going to have to get good play from it’s QB to have a chance. You don’t need to have the best QB to win consistently in fantasy but your QB can’t kill you and both of yours might. McNabb could implode or be hurt and Ryan may be little more than a game manager when that running game is working. Still, great depth at WR and RB and strong keeper potential gives you all the tools to trade and improve the QB position.

Potential Keepers: LeSean McCoy, Mike Wallace, Matt Ryan, Larry Johnson, Brent Celek, Legedu Naanee, Keiland Williams

Grade: A-

*** - Update!**

This team traded RB - Larry Johnson and WR - Mike Wallace to Spiritus Mundane for WR - Pierre Garcon and WR - Nate Burleson.

Trade Analysis: I hate this move for the JAMmers. I don’t think Garcon is a significant upgrade over Wallace, though inthe first 4 weeks he might be, and the loss of Johnson somewhat spoils the tactic of locking up both Redskins backups. If you’re certain that either Portis will stay healthy or Williams will be the replacement then go ahead, but I don’t think with Shanny calling the shots anyone can claim to feel good about that. I actually like Garcon and Burleson a bunch this season but you didn’t really need help at WR and I’m not sure why you’d want another throw in WR.

For Mundi I like the move. You take a glut of WRs and turn them into a potentially high upside ambulance chaser at RB while doing very little to weaken your WR corps. For me Wallace is a small step down from Garcon but Burleson is a huge step down from Johnson due to the value of the position.

Revised Grades: Mundi B+, Jules B+

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Nobody wants to trade for one of my wideouts? Come on, people, these guys are good.

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Trade cleared this morning. All is well.

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I do it by turning the league to commissioner approval rather than vote to veto. If there’s a controversial trade I’ll put it on hold for discussion, and then (if necesary) retroactively make it happen if it’s cool.

Most trades are uncontroversial and it’s nice to be able to finish a trade up saturday afternoon and be able to get it reflected in Sunday’s roster. I did it a bunch last year.

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I prefer committing them retroactively, leaving the veto voting feature as normal.

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Okay everyone, we’re using the same waiver system that has worked for us so well in the past. Instead of the boilerplate text I just wrote up the explanation freehand and put it in the commissioner’s note. Reproduced here:

WAIVER WIRE

Once a player kicks off he goes on waivers until Tuesday night at midnight. (Wednesday morning.) Everyone comes off waivers then and are free agents until their next kickoff.

To claim a breakout player off waivers, send me an email titled “Waiver Claim.” Claim as many players as you like each week, just list them in order you want them. Each successful individual claim moves your waiver priority to last.

Rosters won’t be locked, so if you accidentally sign a free agent who is on waivers I’ll undo it without penalty, filing an automatic waiver claim on your behalf. (Email me if you just forgot about waivers and don’t really want him. No harm no foul.)

Let me know if you have any questions. As a quick example, tonight at 8:30pm all Saints and Vikings go on waivers until Tuesday night.

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**DrewBrees’Birthmark **
1 (9) Ryan Grant
2 (20) Joseph Addai
3 (37) Michael Bush
4 (48) Reggie Bush
5 (65) Santana Moss
6 (76) Donald Driver
7 (93) Ben Roethlisberger
8 (104) Carson Palmer
9 (121) Julian Edelman
10 (132) Owen Daniels
11 (149) Javon Ringer
12 (160) Montario Hardesty
13 (177) Cincinnati
14 (188) LeGarrette Blount
15 (205) Miami
16 (216) Sebastian Janikowski

QB - Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer
I’m a big fan of the strategy here. I like Big Ben to come on strong when he’s back from suspension and you’ve got Palmer to guide you through the dicey first 4 weeks. Ben loses Holmes and Mendenhall isn’t a great receiver out of the backfield, so there’s some reason to question if he’ll be as productive as seasons past. Not to mention that the Steelers have vowed a new dedication to the run and the likelihood of some rust following the layoff. Long story short, Ben is far from a sure thing (you can disregard that supposed QB controversy) but I love his upside in the 7th round. Getting Palmer immediately after to insulate the risk was somewhat necessary but you have to wonder if you could have gotten 90% of his production far later in the draft. If you take Ben in the 7th you’re probably betting on him being your starter every week once he gets back, Palmer is every bit the question mark as Ben and then some but he also has upside. It’s a solid situation you’ve got here, but after week 4 I wonder if you’ll wish you had some extra depth at RB or WR instead of a top flight backup.

RB - Ryan Grant, Joseph Addai, Michael Bush, Reggie Bush, Javon Ringer, Montario Hardesty, LeGarrette Blount
You went absolutely RB crazy and I’m not liking the results one bit. Grant is steady as hell but he doesn’t have a great upside. The Packers are going to throw it all over the yard and I suspect that in the red zone they’ll be looking to throw more often than not. If he stays healthy you will probably get 1200 yards out of the guy but he’s not going to be the bell cow for this team. Addai feels like a serious reach in the second round and between the injuries and uncertainty of playing time you are going to be very frustrated slotting him into your lineup in a given week. In both cases I think you reached for RBs in lieu of elite WRs and you’ll regret that.

The Bush boys are competent backups and were Michael not injured to start the season I’d love the pick. Between he and Ben the first 4 weeks could be pretty painful. When Bush comes back I think he’ll quickly supplant Addai as your starter. I’ve been saying it for a while now but the Raiders will be a much improved team this season. Even with the thumb injury I think that was a nice choice. Reggie on the other hand was one RB too many. I suspect that Bush will have a strong season compared to past efforts, he’s been running hard and is as healthy as ever and with the loss of Bell he should get more touches when he’s on the field. Still, you drafted 3 RBs to start the draft and Bush isn’t a safe enough play to get a start over any of them. A backup in the 4th round is always a bad idea.

After that you went crazy for ambulance chasers. Using you first 4 picks on RBs is one thing. I don’t like it in this day and age but it’d defensible as a strategy, but it makes picking 3 additional backups pure waste, especially when all those guys will need injuries to be worth a squat and are unlikely to have keeper value aside from Hardesty. Hardesty is obviously hurt which makes his drafting doubly troubling and pointless. Ringer is only of value to Johnson owners and you don’t have the roster spot to waste on him, even if CJ gets hurt Ringers valueless next season. Blount at the time was another Titans RB meaning you doubled uup on CJs backups, bizarre unless you have a voodoo doll of my boy. With Blount finding room on the Tampa roster time will tell if he’s worth having on your team. That he was cut doesn’t bode well though.

WR - Santana Moss, Donald Driver, Julian Edelman
3 WRs? Come on. We can start 3 and with Addai and Bush x 2 the odds are damn good you’ll need to at some point. Moss has been getting some unexpected buzz with McNabb in town and I suppose it’s understandable. It’s a talent poor position and someone has to catch the ball there. I generally dislike Moss as a player but he’s in a good situation and he was drafted at about the right spot. Driver is actually higher than Moss on my board and so long as father time doesn’t claim him he’ll be a very steady producer and great TD scorer. I’'d love him as a WR3, as a WR2 I worry about his age. Edelman is a feel good story but with Welker back, Tate coming on strong and the rookie TEs creating more 2 TE sets he looks to be getting squeezed out of a role. All Pats WRs have value but Brady will spray it around so much that barring and injury you are probably not going to want to start Edelman. He’s got a low ceiling and a potentially zero floor.

TE - Owen Daniels
Good player, good value, good offense. However he’s coming off injury and I’ve never really been convinced he’s more than a flash in the pan. The Texans don’t use the TE in the red zone a ton and with Jacoby Jones coming on there’s a chance that Daniels’ looks could diminish further. I think there were better players with higher upsides on the board here. Is he clearly better than Olsen, I’m not convinced.

**DEF - Cincinnati, Miami **
Aside from week 1 that Miami pick is wasted. They are a subpar defense and you can do as well on the waiver wire. Considering your depth issues at WR this pick is indefensible. I really like Cincy’s defense this year and I think they will be in a division that’s much less explosive that people suspect. The Steelers for the reasons noted above and I think the Bengals secondary matches up well with the codgers running routes for the Ravens. Cincy will have a ball control offense helping them out. The loss of Odom is a issue but that’s temporary and they were solid without him last year.

K - Sebastian Janikowski
Last round and if I’m right about the Raiders he’ll be a very productive one. I think with the WR issues in Oakland they’ll struggle in the red zone which is great for fantasy kickers. Still, with only 3 WRs I might have looked for another WR here as a keeper and gambled on the waiver wire once you learned Hardesty was hurt or Blount was cut.

I hate the way this team was constructed. I like taking Roethlisberger and waiting on him to come back, I like the Cincy defense and Kicker where you got them buut pretty much the entire rest of the draft was a disaster. The only hope I see for success is if Michael Bush comes back fast and looks like Adrian Peterson and you find this year’s Miles Austin on the waiver wire.

Potential Keepers: Ben Roethlisberger

Grade: F

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Daniels a flash in the pan?

He caught 63 balls for 768 yards in 2007, 70 for 862 yards in 2008, and was leading all tight ends in receptions, yardage and touchdowns when he got hurt halfway though last season.

Granted, he doesn’t get in the endzone a lot, but that’s because the Texans don’t throw in the red zone, they run the ball. A glance at Andre Johnson’s numbers will confirm this: he’s 6’3", 220 pounds, and yet has never caught 10 scores in a season.

ETA: With all that said, I’m not high on Daniels this season. He’s coming off an ACL injury, and as a slightly undersized tight end speed and agility are integral to his game.

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Ellis, I saw this story and thought of you. :slight_smile:

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Ouch! hehheh. At least I didn’t get the worst draft grade this year.

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Omni, I largely agree with much of your draft analysis for my team. I wanted to address a couple points but decided to wait until after the Giants opener, fully recognizing that this undermines my argument (quite a bit) since it could just as easily be a post-hoc rationalization. I didn’t want to jinx Big Blue, though, so I waited.

I pick my backup QB when the number of starters left gets down to around three. Then I check their matchups during my starter’s bye, and Garrard had the most favorable. When this pick was approaching, I asked the group two questions: Is Garrard likely to start all year, and which of three team defenses gives the most favorable QB matchup? The answers I got were “yes” and the opponent that Garrard faces, so I took him.

Tebow was not a QB pick; he was an end-of-draft keeper pick, and it was a BPA keeper pick, not specificaly a QB keeper pick. Not taking him would have done nothing for me, since any RB/WR available at that time is still available now.

I only took three backs because two handcuffs got poached within 3 picks before me, two different times. Rather than waste a pick on a random RB I’ve never heard of, I decided to just go with 3 starters. The third QB didn’t take up a RB spot; only carrying three starters was a conscious strategy. We’ll see how that strategy goes.

Also, I feel the exact opposite of you about rookies RBs. I think that’s their most productive year, when coaches won’t mind giving them 300 carries because they’re just a rookie and have no wear and tear yet. The Cadillac Williams effect, as it were. I’m highly optimistic about my three running backs, and on a personal note I cannot stand having high-scoring players on the bench. If I had a fourth good RB it would annoy the crap out of me. Though I would have really liked picking up a handcuff or two.

You’re spot-on about my receivers and tight ends. I’m always weak at receiver because I always draft RBs and QBs first. I decided to go all-NY with the TEs solely because that meant I could ignore TE until the late rounds and could thus pick up better quality WRs. The TE matchup will be fun for me each week, and once you’re past the top tier it doesn’t much matter anyway. Even a top tier TE isn’t that much of an impact fantasy player anyway. So basically, the TE position is where I let my homer flag fly for two reasons: that’s the position with the least impact, and both are kind of scrubby so that means I can push the TE pick until very late in the draft, allowing better focus on WRs since I’m always weak there.

I couldn’t disagree more, and I think I have solid grounds for that disagreement. First, I get the impression you don’t think a top defense is worth a 7th rounder, but in this league it absolutely is. Remember trhat a top-scoring defense in this league is a top-10 scorer overall. Two years ago, IIRC, Pittsburgh scored the 8th most fantasy points in the entire league, including QBs, RBs, WRs, TEs and Ks. Defense is a major, major component of this league, and waiting until the last couple rounds is a fool’s errand. It’s almost the equivalent to waiting until the end of the draft and picking up Garrard as your starting QB. Letting good defenses go by because defenses don’t matter in standard scoring is a major mistake.

Last year top defenses started coming off the board in the 5th round, so keeping the Jets in the 7th was a bargain. People seem to have forgotten our emphasis on defense this year, though, so I suppose I might have been able to pick them up in the 8th without a keeper, but that’s not a mistake on my part. That the group collectively forgot this aspect of our league wasn’t foreseeable by me, IMO. I made the smart play on the Jets.

As for the Giants, the homer aspect wasn’t the main thing. I think they’ll end up being a top 5 fantasy defense this year, so getting them when I did was another steal. (Note: This is the point I was holding off on so as not to jinx the Giants.) Big Blue is built for fantasy defense this year, bringing in Rolle and Grant and getting back Philips means they have three ball-hawking safeties, and drafting Jason Pierre-Paul and keeping Kiwi at end means they are aggressively pursuing sacks.

Good linebacking teams don’t score fantasy points, much like the Jets last year. Often the Jets would only score the “points against,” getting no sacks or turnovers while holding their opponent to 7 total points. The Giants, OTOH, are designed to do nothing but sack the QB and pick them off. Today against the Panthers was an extreme example because of the crappiness of Matt Moore, but this is the blueprint for the whole season. That translates to fantasy points, and this means I do get to play matchups with defense all year. (Wish I’d had the guts to do it this week, but again, afraid to jinx the Giants.)

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Forgot to mention today’s result: Giants DEF scored 23.00 fantasy points. That’s a lot of points from a position only drafted in the final rounds. Damn I wish I’d started them!

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The top defense scored 261 points last year. The #14 defense scored 193.
The top QB scored 356 points last year. The #14 QB scored 211.
The top kicker scored 158 points last year. The #14 kicker scored 116.
The top TE scored 174 points last year. The #14 TE scored 94.

Which of these is not like the other?

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Where are you getting those numbers?

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From the league. Just sort by “all players”, the position and “2009 season”.

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Neat, didn’t see that before. Two quick points: 2009 WR show the same 73% dropoff that 2009 defense and kickers do. 2008 defense shows the same 60% dropoff that QBs and RBs did last year.

Which is the fluke for defenses: 2008, or 2009? Because in 2008 DEF had the same dropoff as every other important position. (#1: 276, #14: 166, #14 = 60% of #1)

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I suppose it’s necessary for the continuation of the fantasy football life, but each and every year I forget how damned frustrating the game can be. You can have a good draft, you can be happy with your team, you can get surprise production from your lesser players, and you can still have a shitty week. Whether it is an injury to your starter or underperformance by a “stud” it’s a fickle game that, no matter how much you prepare, you’re still going to hate. Luck is an evil bitch goddess.

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It’s not just the value proposition, but it’s also the fickleness of defenses. Predicting what defenses will score well is a futile endeavor. In 2009 the top defense scored a lot of points but virtually no one had the Niners ranked in the preseason top 10 nor were the Jets a consensus top 5 in Ryan’s first year. More dramatically, the 3rd and 4th defenses were very low picks and the Saints were a waiver wire claim. Chicago, NY Giants and Pittsburgh were top 5 picks and finished far down the pack. This is repeated year in and year out and the Fantasy geeks have the numbers to back it up. QBs and RBs are generally very easy to predict. Defenses and Kickers are essentially impossible due to the high luck factor and the reliance on a group of players as opposed to one. With defenses schedule plays a major role and real strength of schedule is impossible to forecast. Kickers and defenses are rightly placed at the bottom of the heap because the proportional value and accuracy of forecasts are both weak relative to other positions.

That’s not to say that you can’t hit the lottery with a defense pick and in our league it can help you dominate, but the numbers show that you’re nearly as likely to get that in the 7th round as the 15th.

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Fair enough, and remember that I generally agree with your assessment of my team. I do think defenses can be predicted better than kickers, but quibbling over the degree of predictability isn’t worthwhile. (The number of times I’ve been crushed by a total washout first round pick is quite high. Matt Forte last year, Joseph Addai the year before, etc…; I really don’t see running backs as particularly reliable picks. Thus Peyton Manning, who will score points, damnit! heh.)

I mostly just wanted to explain my thinking, or rather explain that there was thinking behind my picks, as opposed to random haphazard homerism.

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Well, Forte was a predictable bust last year. I predicted he’d be a fantasy bust, at any rate. On the other hand, I’ve spent the last two weeks trying to shut down the Arian Foster hype machine, and… yeah.