Sally Yates returns to Atlanta-based law firm to focus on investigations
Doesn’t sound like politician speak for “maybe” to me but who knows?
I’m a fan of Brown for many reasons - I think he is “intersectional” in many important ways - progressive, pragmatic, cred with workers of all sorts including rural, a decent speaker, experienced in how things get done, and yes, midwestern specifically able to bring Ohio back into play … but I do share Obama’s belief that white and male are not required for the top of the ticket.
Brown I think can do that. Harris could too, so could several others, some who are white males and some who are not.
I wouldn’t claim that there was zero impact of HRC’s gender on 2016 but I also think that few Obama-Trump voters were motivated by misogyny. (OTOH misogyny likely cemented some who were never going to vote D in any case.) Her campaign failed to adequately get a message that spoke to the moment communicated. Admittedly it was not easy to when Trump antics sucked all oxygen out of every media cycle but Obama-Trump voters ended up not hearing any real message from her especially none that spoke to them. That failure was not function of having two X chromosomes and next cycle’s candidate can make the same mistake be they a white male of a woman of color.
“Identity” plays a role, sure … you won’t get Obama level Black turnout with a white candidate on the top of the ticket. Still Kerry/Clinton level was not that far off and the Obama-Trump voters can be won back with the right message that speaks to the moment. (Meanwhile Romney-Clinton voters are likely going to stay.)
Midwestern identity though … that could be meaningful. Winning PA, MI, WI, MN, are vital and putting OH back in play is big. A midwestern candidate who can resonate with working class voters of all sorts, who can do so without disrespecting the inequities in our society based on color, ethnicity, and gender …that would be pretty awesome. Is that Brown? Let’s see how he does in tryouts!
In response to the argument against Sally Yates:
- No one’s running for office until they are.
- Being the running mate isn’t so much running for office as it’s being the campaign’s top surrogate.
- Running for vice president isn’t something anyone announces beforehand.
- It was just meant as an interesting option for VP, not to be dissected too deeply.
I wasn’t dissecting it. It just seemed like she made an honest statement of no interest rather than a politician’s equivocation.
Ok.
Related:
No, it’s not a gamble for Dems to back Beto for President.
Obama alum: Keep an eye on Beto for 2020
The primary’s a long slog with dozens of opportunities to shit one’s sheets, or simply fizzle out, but Beto’s resume and youth doesn’t count him out in my book. I could see myself voting for him in the Michigan primary. I mean, there’s a lot of real estate between now and then, so he’ll still have to earn my vote, but that dude’s got a lot of potential.
I have mixed feelings about Beto but he is a lot of what the Dems need. Undeniably charismatic, can get votes in red territory (maybe not enough to win Texas, but hey) and might, just might, be able to bridge the gap between the the Clintonian quasi-corporatists and the Sanders semi-socialists.
Although I’ve been the one stressing charisma, I am very reluctant to endorse Beto. He is being compared to Obama? Let’s compare them:
[ul]
[li] Obama has a Bachelor’s degree in Poli Sci, a Doctorate (magna cum laude) in Law; and served as a Law Professor.[/li]O’Rourke has a Bachelor’s degree in English Lit.
[li] Obama dabbled with marijuana in High School to help him find himself; then was driven along a career. In his disparaged work as “community organizer” he directed or consulted for several important projects including Project Vote.[/li]Beto was arrested twice in his 20’s while he was “finding himelf.” (OK perhaps, but could become attack theme).
[li] Those who knew him were awed by Obama’s obvious genius from an early age. [/li]Beto seems to be a likable guy.
[li] Obama worked on Wall St. in his early 20’s, was founding Chairman of the Chicago Annenberg Challenge, did top legal work for over a decade. When elected to the State Senate at age 35, he was already a distinguished leader.[/li]Beto had jobs like musician, nanny, proofreader, and finally became a website developer when almost 30. When he was elected to the El Paso City Council at age 33, he’d been doing minor work in local politics for a few years.
[/ul]
If elected in 2020, O’Rourke will be one of the youngest Presidents since Teddy Roosevelt.: Only JFK, BHO and Bill Clinton were younger.
If Beto O’Rourke is really the white knight who will soar to victory and save us, I’m 100% behind him. But right now I’m not enthusiastic.
Yes.
After a boring president, a charismatic candidate does best. And vice versa.
Of those on lists of possible Democratic nominees, Steve Bullock of Montana is the surest November winner (as well as the least likely to be nominated).
Deval Patrick seems to me another who would probably win in November.
The senatorial curse is a real thing. But Elizabeth Warren might win.
I’m thinking Bernie Sanders would lose, but I’m biased there because I don’t like his politics.
Back in the day Beto voted for Wall Street deregulation and to fast track the TPP. I’m not sure where he stands on those issues today or if he still feels the same. I really wanted to see him take out Ted Cruz.
I know a lot of people don’t like him, but I always liked Bernie Sanders. Then again, I’m one of those far left progressives, even though I’m 60 years old. What is life for, if not to dream? [(Koch-backed study finds ‘Medicare for All’ would save U.S. trillions – ThinkProgress)“]Medicare for all]([Medicare for all), a[(Bernie Sanders Has Introduced a 'Stop BEZOS' Bill)”] $15 minimum wage]([$15 minimum wage), not having to bail out banks during the next financial crisis and so much more.
I like Elizabeth Warren as a person and as a politician, but if she runs against Trump in 2020 she’ll be roadkill.
What makes you think that Beto can get votes in red territory other than in Texas, where he benefited from a strong regional following? I don’t see him connecting with blue collar workers in the Midwest and the industrial states that Trump won.
Because his message is very similar to a Vermont senator’s message, and that Vermont senator did just fine in Midwestern rust belt states in the 2016 Dem primary. I don’t think a candidate’s home state matters as much as having a dynamic message that people connect with.
FWIW I support TPP, but Wall Street deregulation?? :eek: What bill(s) was that? Did any other top D’s go over to the Dark Side on that?
His message is also “I’m not Hillary.”? 
More seriously there are several choices of candidates who will be espousing progressive themes this cycle. Why will his connect better than theirs? Seems to me that given two candidates who comparably espouse similar progressive themes, the one who has a history with the voters in a region and speaks the idiom of it will have an advantage.
The ability to go viral can’t be underestimated. While younger people may not be reliable voters, they are the ones who create media and social media buzz. The candidate who has the ability to get their message heard, shared, covered and talked about is the one who has the advantage. In the past six months, AO-C and Beto have both proven to be very good at this. A candidate could have the greatest message this side of paradise, but if they can’t capture the public’s attention in memes, viral videos and catchphrases, they barely stand a chance anymore.
Will Beto’s buzz last? Who knows? Maybe Brown or someone else will blow this thing open, or Beto fizzles quickly. But, after working presidential campaigns out of rust belt unions halls since 2004, as long as the candidate is inspirational and connects with workers, they’ll do ok regardless of their home state or political resume. Just ask Donald Trump: inspired and connected with workers. Or ask Hillary Clinton: didn’t inspire and didn’t give two shits about workers in the rust belt.
Obama and Bernie weren’t rust belt blue collar guys, but they both did very well with rust belt blue collar guys. They created buzz, they got their message heard and they inspired people. That’s more important than being from Ohio. That being said, if Brown can create buzz, get his message heard and inspire people (and attract donors), being from Ohio will be icing on the cake.
True. But it is easily overestimated.
Those who reliably vote are in the same media a social media buzz circles.
True, but when the young folks share the videos and memes and get things trending on Twitter, the older folks are exposed to that message, whether it’s being covered by traditional media or bouncing around on social media. Buzz often stems from teens and 20-somethings, but it spreads across all generations. It’s not a guarantee of success, but it sure do help. Someone like Candidate Y could have the perfect message and come from the electoral college linchpin state and have an amazing resume and background, but if he’s not “buzzing,” no one’s donating to him and no one’s listening to him and the votes won’t be there. An exciting candidate with buzz gets covered.
I could be way off base, but it just feels like the days of “standard” candidates that fit the traditional mold are over. No more like Clinton, Romney, Kerry, Gore, Bush, Nixon, Kasich, McCain, Dole, etc; people stepping up because it’s their time or they’ve built the perfect resume. Candidates that can successfully utilize new media to attract buzz and bucks will do better than the ones who may look great on paper and may have been solid contenders in years past. JMHO, but the ability to go viral is how presidential races will be won, from the primaries through the general. ETA: Let’s just hope going forward, we don’t get any other evil clowns attracting the most buzz.
Biden: I’m the most qualified person in the country to be president.
Nothing official yet, and from the story, it sounds like he’s got more than a few reasons lined up not to run, but it sure sounds like he’s running.
I don’t think Delaney is a crank. He is an unknown businessman and ultra-moderate. He is taking the only possible path to becoming president for someone with no name recognition: Get in early and build support in Iowa. Rick Santorum made a little run on that path, also John Edwards if I’m not mistaken. You could argue that they were senators and eclipse Delaney in seriousness. Although I would say a true self-made businessman might have more cache in 2020 than a lower-profile senator.
I don’t think everyone who runs who has only a tiny chance of winning is a crank, but I’m open to other definitions. He presented well in one interview I saw.
Avenatti just pulled out…
Sorry! Didn’t mean to make a sex joke.
He has withdrawn…
Dammit!