Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

I’m not sure the difference between a genius-level IQ and the level of intelligence exhibited by most of the candidates is really all that useful.

Per Byler:

And even the brightest among us would be reluctant to take on Kamala Harris in a battle of wits.

Sure, all other things equal, it’s better to be really really smart than to be just really smart. But other things are usually not equal, and there are distinct skills and attributes that help officeholders and candidates function well in a political environment. So give me candidates like Warren or Harris or Booker or Klobuchar who are really smart and have demonstrated many of those attributes, rather than a genius-level IQ guy who still has a ways to go. He’s having a good rookie season, but he’s still a rookie.

NYT: Top Biden Donors Gather Amid Storm Clouds Over Campaign
Now fourth in the Democratic money chase and under fire from President Trump, Joseph R. Biden Jr. is increasingly dependent on his top donors, many of whom met in Philadelphia.

That’s just the header and sub-hed, but that pretty much says it. Dependent on the kindness of big donors.

“Donor retreat”?

The things we peons didn’t even know were a thing.

Well from the last quarter numbers it does seem like a good amount of donors have retreated …

Well we need to know. Look, these things are really just pageants anyway, why not add a swimsuit round of questioning in the debates so the citizens can be informed?

“It’s a big club, you ain’t in it.”
George Carlin

Is Ohio still a swing state? Hell, yes!: Is Ohio still a swing state? | CNN Politics

But not a tipping point state.

Joe Biden is showing a deep, fundamental misunderstanding of how health care is currently funded in this country by this idiotic tweet sent this morning arguing against M4A:

"Let’s put this in perspective: if you eliminate every single solitary soldier, tank, satellite, nuclear weapon, eliminate the Pentagon and it would only pay for 4 months of Medicare for All. 4 months.

Where do the other 8 months come from? Your paycheck. #DemDebate"

Joe apparently is unaware that current health insurance premiums are funded by personal income, usually via a deduction made at work. IOW, they’re funded from our “paychecks”.

Here’s a crazy scenario that Just Might Happen:

  1. Elizabeth Warren gets a plurality of the votes at the Democratic National Convention - but, in part because of a vote split with Sanders and others, she doesn’t have the majority required for the nomination.
  2. Even though a number of progressive candidates release their delegates, enough Superdelegates (who are allowed to vote on the second ballot) side with Biden that he ends up getting the nomination.
  3. The progressives, thinking that the party has shafted them out of the White House in favor of “more of the same” again, stay home and/or write in Warren in droves in November.
    4 More Years!

There is one way out of this; if it is clear that nobody has a majority, then all of the candidates besides Biden have to get together, agree on a candidate, and then the others all drop out and release their candidates - and hope that their delegates vote for this person rather than enough of them saying, “Sorry, but it’s either (my candidate) or Biden.”

And if Biden does get the nomination, writing in someone else (in #3) may not be such a bad idea for the progressives; it gets the voters into the voting booth, where they can vote for progressive candidates for the House and, where applicable, Senate, which is where they are really needed; the budget the President sends to Congress is not necessarily the one sent back to the President to be signed.
Note that, for example, California Elections Code Section 8650 allows a group of “write-in electors” to align themselves with a write-in candidate even without the candidate’s approval. (There is a way to get put on the ballot itself as an independent, but anyone who appeared on any party’s ballot in the primary is ineligible.)

Why are the progressives always the boogeypersons in these scenarios? You don’t think moderates would be inclined to stay home if Biden gets a plurality but doesn’t win the nomination? Have you forgotten that 25% of Hillary Clinton’s 2008 primary voters defected to McCain after not getting their way?

Tru dat. If the Dems win Ohio next year, the Dems will have won the election with room to spare.

I, for one, have either forgotten that or never knew it. It’s a frightening stat — but perhaps not surprising if you think about it.

I hugely admire Barack Obama — the best natural President since LBJ or Ike. However

[SPOILER]Obama was a black man(*). He was able to win election only because voters were very ready for a change, GWB having made shambles, the economy desperate, and McCain bonkers with the Palin pick. He’d have had no chance except after the dismal eight Dubya years.

Any Democrat would have won, so it was a good gamble to send in the Negro. Don’t make me dig out the cite again, quantifying the several percent of votes lost automatically with the black nomination.

    • I don’t recall Obama’s supporters trying an “only half black” meme but the Tea Partiers were ready for it: “You either are or you aren’t. And he aren’t.” [/SPOILER]

It’s true.

Because I don’t remember any “Hillary or Home That Day” memes making the rounds in 2016 - meanwhile, “Bernie or Bust” was all over the place. Okay, maybe that could have been because the Sanders supporters are far more vocal, at least in social media.

Also note that there is a way around all of this: if, after the last primary, it is obvious that nobody has a majority, then the progressive candidates can get together and agree on a single “standardbearer” “for the good of the party and the country,” then the others can withdraw their nominations and release their delegates (presumably; there is nothing in the Democratic Party Bylaws or the Call for the Convention that describes what happens to pledged delegates if their candidate withdraws, other than, “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”) The problem with this is, this assumes there aren’t enough “my candidate or Biden” delegates to hand him the nomination anyway.

Besides, even if #1 and #2 do happen somehow, the progressives should counter with:
3 - if you live in a “state in play,” hold your nose and vote for Biden, but make sure you vote for the progressive for your House (and, where applicable, Senate) seat; if your state is not in play, there is no law against leaving the choice for President blank (or, you can write in someone else anyway, even if it won’t be counted), but still, vote for the progressive House and Senate candidates. Remember, the budget that the President sends to Congress and the one sent back to the President to be signed are not necessarily the same thing.

Oh, so you must just not be old enough to remember these people. Fair enough.

Forget 2016.

Progressives were arguing in the 2000 election that Al Gore and George W Bush were the same. How’d that work Ralph Nader, Michael Moore and co?

*Some * progressives made that argument. The vast majority did not. I don’t recall a single Democratic member of Congress or big city mayor endorsing Nader.

But they were happy to stab the progressives in the back when the shoe was on the other foot.

Personally, I remember the acronym PUMA standing for “Party Unity, My Ass!”

LOL, Hillary with zero fucks left to give:

(Emphasis mine, JT)

Nice!