I concur. I am sorta a Biden fan, but I am absolutely in the camp he needs a young Veep. And perhaps a woman or a minority, too.
If the two septuagenarians Biden and Warren are both elected, and both shuffle off this mortal coil, next in the line of succession, in the default case, would be Nancy Pelosi and (if control of the Senate is wrested from the evil-doers) Patrick Leahy. Pelosi and Leahy will each be celebrating their 80th birthday this March. Perhaps the priority should be a young Secretary of State. 
All kidding aside and while admitting that Warren may not be the strategic choice for Biden’s Veep, it is sad to disqualify her for her age. :mad: Warren has barely turned 70, is still showing huge spirit and stamina, and is one of the smartest candidates on the stage. And by actuarial tables she is, in effect, more than a decade younger than either Sanders or Biden.
Joe Biden announced his campaign by using a very poignant phrase…“battle for the soul of the nation”.
He was leading in the polls months before he announced his candidacy. The earliest poll I have found was in October 2018.
Biden 33%
Sanders 13%
Harris 9%
Warren 8%
Booker 5%
He did not join the race until six months later in the last week of April. Since then he continues to be ahead of the pack as far as the poll trackers are concerned.
Elizabeth Warren had a very brief period last month taking the lead in the RCP tracker prompting talk about the fall of Biden but that didn’t hold.
I find this all rather fascinating from a party political view. Even more now that Pete Buttigieg is leading in Iowa. Because Buttigieg started off being all for Medicare For All and speaking of how Democrats should not be afraid of being attacked as socialists for following progressive ideas because whatever they say will be attacked as socialism. But as the race has developed he has quietly shifted closer to the Biden-wing than the Bernie Sanders-wing. I believe this is demonstrated in Iowa.
So one hand Biden is the only candidate with a positive net return vs Trump. But on the other hand he does not lead the field overall in Iowa.
Buttigieg saw a vacancy as the alternative to Biden and seized it. Similar political platform but he offers a new face. One that is new. That is forty years younger. Doesn’t carry the baggage of years in Washington. Openly gay which is a symbolic of the progress in LGBT activism. But it’s one state and he needs to broaden out to a broader more diverse coalition.
I believe there are candidates who could and should have filled that void of the Biden alternative much easier. Getting the high turnout across the demographics. Biden’s support may be an inch deep and a mile wide. The numbers shows he leads in most demographics besides young voters. I believe someone like Kamala Harris would be so much stronger if she didn’t chase Sanders on the Left because she ended up getting burned. The “Kamala is a cop” meme was perpetuated by the Left and weaponised by Tulsi Gabbard in the second debate in which Harris has never recovered. I think if she embraced that she was a prosecutor but advocated trying to reform the system from the inside she could have handled it. Instead she waited too long succumbing to the Sanders wing who believe the system must be dismantled, period, and that her being a prosecutor must mean she’s complicit.
I believe Beto could have offered the Biden alternative his candidacy lacked clarity until he started swinging from the hips after the El Paso shootings personally struck a chord.
The reason why I think the Biden alternative is so important is his candidacy goes against the popular narrative that the Democratic Party has reered to the Left. He has received the most coverage unsurprisingly but much of it negative. Before the Ukraine topic came up here is an example:
Of the 100 stories about Joe Biden that have received the most social media attention over the last three weeks, 77 were negative.
Admittingly Twitter is a bubble. A bubble that tends to tilt very left or very right. But the journalists who cover the campaigns are on there posting there all day. Stories break on Twitter through 280 characters and go viral. Viral stories fill the 24 hour TV news spectrum. The whole thing six months ago about the fundraiser comments about segragationists started from a reporter at the event tweeting out a soundbite that exploded. The actual transcript later posted showed a different side to the story but the damage was done.
Joe Biden’s candidacy feels like teflon. He keeps getting peltered but nothing sticks. His numbers are steady and certainly in the South no one is really getting close. Yet if he goes all the way to the nomination getting battered and bruised by fellow Democrats I think there’s a real problem. Like in 2016 people, especially young people, might not turn out. The Sanders wing featuring the likes of AOC openly call out members of the party too “centrist” and are running primaries against them. I am pretty sure a Biden nomination will be revolted by them. And if Biden is elected the odds on him being primaried in 2024 will be high.
In another thread, in response to this:
“I think it’s going to be Biden with Warren as VP …”
I wrote this:
Too old*, too white, too Northeastern. Good ideological balance, though, but that’s about it. (And, lots of relevant experience).
But if it polls best vs. Trump in Great Lakes states, go for it. That’s the ONLY thing that matters, this time around. (I don’t know whether to laugh or cry during these Dem debates? “Medicare for some” vs. “public option for dogs” vs. whatever…FORGET IT! The next president will spend the entire 4 years partially repairing the damage Trump has caused, and that’s IT. We’ll be back to the 2016 baseline, from which to move forward, by 2025 IF WE’RE LUCKY).
*i know, Warren is actuarially young, and full of vigah. True.
There is quite an irony in AOC ripping Trump for using “concentration camps” at the border but at the same time lionize a man who put over 100,000 Japanese Americans into what he himself called “concentration camps”.
I know, right? And quoting Jefferson’s Declaration of Independence, when the man owned human beings. Amazing stuff.
So here’s my opinion of Biden: I fear he has the biggest chance of duplicating HRC’s crash-and-burn presidential run. Tell me if I’m wrong.
I fear he is running on a similar platform of entitlement/Obama’s third term without a whole lot of substance otherwise (except for a completely right-wind stance on pot). He invokes the name of Obama every chance he gets.
In debates, he’s easily rattled by attacks, which makes me think he wouldn’t fare well against the garbage-mouthed incumbent. He also seems to struggle to stay on topic or fully make his points known.
I also fear that the specter of scandal–however *untrue *and conspiratorial–would mirror “but her emails!” and present an all-too easy base-rallying chant in the stadiums.
I’m currently having a debate with a friend about holding our nose and supporting Biden as the middle-of-the-roader most likely to win vs backing someone we actually like and think would be a better president because they “are too far left” to win.
I personally believe there’s a bit of a myth to just how far left “too far left” really is–I think progressivism is the wave of progress in general other than hold-out dinosaurs like Biden (who in turn support Biden).
Maybe I’m way off…but I can easily see Biden’s path mirroring HRC’s. I don’t see him as having much more likability or charisma than her.
I think Joe’s much more likable than Hillary. Also, I suspect people sat out in 2016 because they didn’t really like her, but they also thought Trump could never win, so what’s the difference if they actually got out to vote. The midterms and the special elections and the 2019 elections have been indicating that people aren’t going to make that same mistake again. They’re showing up to vote, and overall, it hasn’t been good for the GOP or Trump.
That being said, I don’t know if Joe’s the right guy, maybe he is, maybe he isn’t. I do suspect there are a lot of more moderate Republicans who would vote for Joe in a heartbeat over Trump (here in West Michigan, a lot of socially conservative Christians are also very pro-immigrant/refugee and are appalled by Trump’s callousness and would have no problem voting for a moderate Dem to get DJT the fuck out of the WH. At the very least I think they would feel comfortable sitting it out next November and “letting” the sane Democrat win.).
But I agree with you that Biden isn’t as sharp on the debate stage as I’d like him to be. Strong debate performances didn’t win it for Hillary however. For many people it’s about who the trust more. Oddly, many chose Trump over Hillary on that count (or chose not voting over voting for Hillary), but I don’t see that happening as much in swingy states next time around. Just mho.
PJ O’Rourke on television this morning:
“The Democrats are convinced that nobody can lose to Trump and they are actively looking for that nobody.”
++
My oft-repeated theory remains: Buttigieg is playing a long game. His run this time is about building a brand; he never expected to be a frontrunner but wanted to get himself known on the national stage (and give the Overton window on a “gay president” a nudge in the right direction) and then do a serious run in four or eight years. In between, he could do a keynote DNC speech, maybe do a stint in the House if another Democrat wins in 2020, and keep building momentum until he’s ready. Or he might snag a VP slot, depending on who the top spot goes to.
Ironically, the one thing that could ruin his plan is winning the nomination. He’s not ready now, he knows he’s not ready now, and I think if he does become the nominee he will have a serious “oh shit” moment. I mean, I like him a lot and I do think he could be an excellent president. But I’m not sure this is his hour.
I think there are actually a lot of Trump supporters who like him, not because he’s an extreme Republican, but simply because he’s extreme, and they don’t care in what direction. Those people would be more easily won over by an extreme Democrat than by a moderate.
Interesting analysis of Biden by Drum:
Yep. I know, I know, the pundits dont care for Joe. But he acts like a regular guy (and so does Mayor Pete to some extent, which is why I am hoping for Pete in 2028). And it’s why people like him. They like his little gaffes, they make him seem human.
On what basis can this author possibly know what “every non-political junkie watching the debate” thinks or feels? They’re literally just extrapolating their own opinion out to the general public, based on absolutely nothing.
…unless there was some kind of accompanying poll or some other provided data.
The viewing numbers for these debates are pretty bad. The second night of the first round of debates in June peaked at 18 million. Ever since, and not surprisingly, with so many candidates all on one stage the numbers have fallen. The last one registered 7 million.
Then factor in how long the debates go on + the number of people, then it’s a debate in name only. There is no real discussion. It’s about getting your canned lines in, your prepared gotcha and then we move on. I kind of laughed when on two occasions the camera zoomed in on Biden and Buttigieg with their hand in the air after someone brought up their names for a right to reply only for the moderators to completely change the subject. I was as pissed as those two!
And for the record Warren made a gaffe which didn’t pick up. She said her 2% wealth tax applies on wealth of 50 billion dollars rather than 50 million dollars. And she said it twice. Imagine if Biden made such an error about his own plan.
It takes a “political junkie” to know that punching isn’t the right word to use when talking about domestic violence? That’s just the way that everyone talks?
I was expecting “no pun intended”. Didn’t arrive!
Have to say I just find the parsing over everything Biden says in the hope he slips up or stutters boring now. I saw people on the activist left say “well ackshually 40% of abusive partners in a relationship are women” when he said men needing to use self defence rarely happens. I mean come on, if he made an equivocacy between men and women they would have derided him as being out of touch with women’s rights.
Bernie shouts every debate he has been in going back to 2016 he wrote the damn bill but if I were as pedantic I’d point out John Conyers wrote the damn bill. Bernie named a few post offices.