Hee-haw, y'all. The 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

I don’t agree with you much but yeah. Tapping into the anger is easier but less broadly appealing. You won’t get much acceptance of that idea from the Warren or Sanders online contingent because their loudest supporters are the ones who like having their anger stoked.

Trump tapped into both. There does seem to be a big rise in populism going on these days. However, I do think that things like ‘wine caves’ seem more elitist than “I wish I could have that”. Trump’s kind of crass wealth (gold everywhere) seems to be far more resonant in the “I wish I could have that” crowd.

Morning Consult poll released today:

Biden 31%
Sanders 21%
Warren 15%
Buttigieg 9%
Bloomberg 6%
Yang 5%
Booker 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Gabbard 2%

RCP Aggregate Tracker

Biden 27.8%
Sanders 19.3%
Warren 15.2%
Buttigieg 8.3%
Bloomberg 5.0%

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

Exactly a month since Bloomberg entered the race so all those ads have done him well. He’s not even contesting the early states yet there are folks like who have been in Iowa all year who have never hit 5%.

Obama talks up Warren behind closed doors to wealthy donors: MSN

That won’t go over well with Biden

This is my worry also. (The “Fat, you’re a liar” was horrid.) If it happens before the convention, presumably the 2nd-place vote-getter (Buttigieg? Warren?) would get the nod. If it happens after the convention, Biden’s V.P. pick (Klobuchar??) might get the nod.

Love it. Title of the article “Obama talks up Warren”, title of the lead video “Obama reportedly defended Warren to donors that doubt her”. So the actual story is that Obama is trying to keep donors in line if she ends up the candidate. Nice click bait bullshit, Elendil.

Worse, I think he’d be backing a losing horse with Warren.

I can’t understand those who thought Buttigieg had such a bad debate performance. Klobuchar did manage to get in a few good jabs to the face, but I thought Buttigieg gave it right back to Warren when she went off on her wine cave tangent. And the reports coming out today about Warren’s own fundraising activity really makes her attacks on Buttigieg’s fundraising look like the stuff of a jealous, high-dudgeon hypocrite.

I think the way to look at this race is that it’s Trump’s to lose: if the economy continues to chug along and if Trump hasn’t gotten us into some sort of disastrous war, he will hold serve, and I don’t think there’s anyone out there who can beat him. The Democrats are grooming some good presidential talent for 2024, but in 2020, they’re stuck between ‘has beens’ and wannabes.

What Democrats need is someone who can win if the economy (or Trump himself) begins to falter in the second half of 2020. Biden is that guy, IMO. He’s not the ideal candidate, but the best of what’s out there.

It would if you read the article instead of the deceptive title.
*"But behind the scenes in recent months, former President Obama has gone to bat for Warren (D-Mass.) when speaking to donors reluctant to support her given her knocks on Wall Street and the wealthy…And if Warren becomes the nominee, Obama has said they must throw the entirety of their support behind her.

The former president has stopped short of an endorsement of Warren in these conversations and has emphasized that he is not endorsing in the Democratic primary race.

But he also has vouched for her credentials, making it clear in these private sessions that he deems her a capable candidate and potential president, sources say."*

In other words, we need to beat trump and Warren is one of several candidates who I think can do it.

Whoa, dial it back. I copied the headline and provided the link, both unaltered.

Exactly.

Bloomberg and Steyer have already spent over $200 mil on TV ads

Tom Steyer and Michael Bloomberg have spent a combined total of $211.7 million on TV advertising" through 12/24/2019, @DavidWright_CNN reports. Steyer is at $109,599,094, Bloomberg is at $102,060,980. Source: Kantar/CMAG

If they wanted a shot at the Dem nom, they shoudl have announced earlier and gotten in on the early debates. They didnt, so too bad, so sad, maybe 2024.

And depending on which set of polls you read, they are jointly pulling 5%-9%.

Of course, as Charles Foster Kane notably predicted, “If I keep losing money at this rate, I’ll go broke in one hundred years.”

So in two months, we’ll have the first four done. The one realistic Biden slayer, Warren is looking to come in 4th in the first couple, Iowa and NH. Distant second in Nevada and SC. If the polling holds. Super Tuesday follows pretty quickly, so I guess we can expect her to hold on til then, but the big prize of California is currently looking like a wash for the top three. Does she have any kind of a path left?

The top 4 in the early states, per polling, are enough of a jumble that it wouldn’t be terribly surprising if any of them win. So Warren’s path is still to win either NH or IA and become the frontrunner or co-frontrunner.

Biden would consider a GOP member as his running mate. Maybe he thinks McCain is still alive

I would consider it but can’t think of any just sounds like a polite way of placating the woman who asked the question. I’m guessing since it’s New Hampshire that she’s a Never-Trumper republican.

Something of a jumble but her Real Clear running average puts her 6 points back and 4th place in both those states. Obviously things can change there but time is ticking now.