There’s not been early state polls in seven weeks. Would be interesting to see when the first is released in 2020 to see how Pete’s Iowa numbers hold up now since he’s riding entirely off an Iowa bounce to go deeper into the contest.
We’re 77 days from March 17th. As of the end of the primaries on that day 61.5% of pledged delegates will have been selected. (Counting things like Iowa estimated results as close enough to the final delegate count once the full process completes later in the year.) Cite - 2020 Chronological Cumulative Allocation of Delegates For comparison only 50.1% of pledged delegates had been awarded by that point in 2016.
We are also less than three weeks from Minnesota beginning early in person voting on January 17th for their March 3rd Super Tuesday primary. Unless Klobuchar suspends very soon, early voting in her home state could produce some really strange results.
CA’s giant delegate haul is even more important. It is a just over ten percent of the total delegates for the nomination. Early voting in CA begins in about a month - Feb 3rd. That is the same day as the IA caucuses. Mail in ballots have to be received by the 25th to be counted. That cutoff two weeks after NH, three days after the NV caucus, and before SC holds their primary. Waiting to see NV results first risks having a ballot not counted. 65% of Californians voted early in the last midterm. Two months from now the majority of Californians will likely have already voted. That is huge.
Things get real in the nomination fight as much of the nation is still nursing a New Years hangover.
Early voting can definitely cause the generic voter to have to make a decision early if you support anyone outside of the big 4. Do you want to vote for Klobuchar or Yang knowing they may not be viable by the time your vote is counted?
Also, Illinois vote by mail ballots will be available sometime in mid February if not earlier, we’re another large delegate state.
Steyer announced his candidacy a mere sixteen months before the November election. The horror, the horror!
Imagine the pandemonium in, say the U.K., if after dissolving Parliament they had to rush and hold elections within a mere sixteen months.
As of an hour ago, Biden has taken the lead in 538’s polling average in IA (+0.8 over Pete) and NH (+0.2 over Sanders), which gives him a (very slight) edge in each of the first four states to vote, as well as a 10-point lead nationally (+10 over Sanders).
And long after the first debates- which it must be noted- weeded out quite a few candidates.
I think it’s increasingly looking more like Biden will have a major advantage after Super Tuesday but he may not have enough to win before the convention, which could make things interesting.
In your opinion. In my opinion, debates don’t weed out anyone without a major implosion, which didn’t happen in any of the debates so far.
I think he would. I see either Biden or Buttigieg dropping out if it’s clear that one is building up a big delegate lead. Biden can always ride off into the sunset after a long political career and Buttigieg can return to fight another day.
The problem will be on the Bernie/Warren side. Bernie has shown how stubborn he is and thus they will continue to split the progressive vote while the moderate grabs delegates.
Agreed.
Even after Kamala Harris beat Biden down in the first debate, we saw only a temporary shift. The polls eventually stabilize unless there’s something that fundamentally exposes a candidate’s weakness, either during or between debates.
Would he have enough if the Superdelegates counted - which they do, if no one gets the nomination on the first ballot?
Well, altho perhaps the Debates havent been the primary cause, during the first few debates we have had drop out:
Harris
Bullock
De Blasio
Gillibrand
Beto
Inslee
Hickenlooper
Ryan
Swalwell
and a few others who didnt even qualify for the debates.
The debates are part of what feed the polls and contributions.
You mentiion Harris. You’ll note she was used an example above on how the debates didn’t change anything, even though she had the biggest moment of all the debates so far.
The reason people don’t make the debates is because they are polling so poorly and aren’t raising enough money. Those are generally also reasons people stop their campaigns…
And yes, debates do feed the polls. Temporarily. Debate bumps and dips happen but they almost always fade away.
The first half of debates have got lower viewing figures one by one. The first round of debates where there were twelve candidates were split across two nights registered almost 20 million viewers. The one just gone which was the debate most like a “debate” with fewer candidates therefore longer response time registered just six million. The four in between when ten people shared a stage was more of a “who can get the best soundbite in thirty seconds”.
Harris got the bump and the subsequent attention. People just ended up not liking what they saw after they looked closer.
Warren’s gradual rise was not debate driven but her drop seems to me to tied to her trying to leapfrog Sanders on MfA and then having to try to walk it back. Which was a debate impact.
It isn’t so much joy many actually watch them; it’s how they drive the narratives.
I predict Biden winning easily and having more than enough delegates to ensure victory. In many states or districts, particularly those with large black populations, he may win every delegate. Looking at the calendar, all southern states except Louisiana vote in March, and in most of them the Democratic party is dominated by the black voters. If Biden sweeps through the South he gets a ton of delegates there and a reasonable number from states elsewhere in the country, he’ll have an insurmountable lead before April.
My man Castro dropped out. Oh well, I see a veep nom in his future.
I hear that his 10 supporters are upset. 
Exactly right. And I’d argue Buttigieg’s rise comes directly from debates/debate narratives. And from 538’s national poll average, it appears Buttigieg has started to drop a bit most like due to what came out of the last debate. The debates have driven quite a few rise and falls.
Biden told out of work coal miners that anybody who can shovel coal can write software for a living. Gee, I never thought of that.