SC!:smack:
Something that’s coming into focus is that Bernie Sanders is clearly the strongest single candidate in the race so far, and I don’t think anyone other than Bloomberg has the kind of money-raising machine in the Super Tuesday states that he does. Klobuchar and Buttigieg have competed well, but they spent a ton of time and resources in a very small area. They’ll be able to do that in Nevada and South Carolina, but it gets harder going forward. Once we get past February, Bernie has a distinct advantage over everyone except Bloomberg.
On that note, though, there’s another thing that’s coming into focus and that’s the fact that Bernie Sanders’ brand of progressivism isn’t dominating the party or the race. Bernie is sitting pretty because the moderates are fighting each other, but it’s not clear how independent voters would respond to a two-way race between Sanders and Trump.
Until somebody does, here’s the answer to your first question:
As far as the convention is concerned, there are three types of delegates - pledged delegates, “uncommitted” delegates, and superdelegates.
A pledged delegate is committed to vote for a particular candidate. There is nothing in the Call for the Convention that specifies when a delegate is no longer required to vote for that candidate; presumably, when a candidate withdraws their nomination, those delegates become uncommitted.
Most, if not all, primaries and caucuses allow someone to vote “uncommitted.” “Uncommitted” can earn delegates in the same way that a candidate can, but an uncommitted delegate can vote for any candidate at the convention.
A superdelegate is someone who is a delegate because of who they are. Like uncommitted delegates, superdelegates can vote for any candidate. The superdelegates are:
- The 440 members of the Democratic National Committee
- All Democrats currently in Congress
- All Democrats who are currently state governors
- The mayor of Washington, DC
- Former Presidents Obama, Clinton, and Carter
- Former VPs Biden, Gore, and Mondale
- All former chairs of the Democratic National Committee
- All Democrats that are former House and Senate Speakers/Majority/Minority Leaders
However, the superdelegates are not allowed to vote on the first ballot for President at the convention. Note that an “uncommitted” delegate can vote on the first ballot.
There are about 4000 pledged (and uncommitted) delegates, and about 750 superdelegates.
Thanks, Don — helpful.
I admire Bernie, and i voted for him in the primary (err, caucus) in 2016, and i think he’d do fine Among capital D democrats, but those independent voters and real honest-to-god moderate voters on both sides would stay home on the (D) side, and vote Trump on the (R) side.
I think of my girlfriend’s cousins in Kentucky. They are conservative-ish. They don’t like Trump. But if its a race against Bernie, they will vote for Trump 6 days a week and twice on Sunday, lest we descend into evil, evil socialism.
Bernie is a winner. Ask yourself if he has faltered in any sense, in any answer he has given in 5 years. He hasn’t.
I never bought into the “bernie got cheated” last time. But this time it is so striking the trouble they have on MSNBC to give him credit for anything.
last night two older pundits complained that if you add amy and petes totals they would beat bernie. WTF.
Ari Melber had a live one recently who said she voted for Bernie because they were dissing him on MSNBC! That’s a real american.
Wife and I voted early today. In the last 2 weeks we’ve had 5 volunteers come to our door, all for Bernie. We’ve also gotten a handful of Bernie phone calls. No other candidate, except one Bloomberg call that we didn’t answer.
I would vote for Bernie if it came down to him and Trump, but honestly, I’d be taking my barf bag with me, knowing that he’ll be dragging the Democratic party either to a George McGovern-esque loss, or permanently destroying the Democratic brand as an accidental president.
And I still cannot for the life of my why Sanders wants to label himself a democratic socialist, when it would be much more attractive to call himself a social capitalist, which is far more appealing to most people.
There’s no normal to go back to. “Bipartisan” these days means if you’re a dem you show up for a subpeona, because you know your place, and your opponent has got more mojo than you and does what he wants. Then he gives you a little entitled liberal name calling attitude for the chaser.
And that is a US employee. Whose salary we are paying, us democrats.
Good luck with the middle of the road.
I agree that there’s no working with the republican party, but it’s a mistake to assume that centrism is dead. It’s quite the opposite. It’s the parties - both parties - that are withering on the vine, and as a result there’s political shifting that’s taking place. Independents are where the deciding votes are. Some independents are really undercover republicans, but others are more malleable.
I don’t want to poo poo Sanders too much - he’s clearly not my guy, but as I said, I’ll vote for him in the end and I’d probably be out there encouraging others to vote against Trump if nothing else. But I’m very much concerned that Sanders would approach the election with an uncompromising hard left position and that this might not be his moment the way he and his supporters envision.
There are three likely outcomes for the progressive-left D’s should Bernie get the nomination, and two of them are bad.
- Bernie loses to Trump - perhaps big, like McGovern in 1972 - huge setback for the progressives.
- Bernie wins the presidency, but is a one-term failure due to intense opposition from Congressional R’s and also some centrist D’s - gets little done, or, whatever he does get done, leads to a backlash far fiercer than Obamacare faced. No Democrats then dare run on a “progressive” platform for some years to come.
- Bernie wins, successfully transforms the nation into democratic socialism, wins reelection, is a transformational, popular president.
1# and 2# are likelier than 3#. 3# is something that would take quite a few things all falling into place at the same time to happen.
There are some utterly massive gray areas in there that are just as likely, if not more so, than any of these.
I was surprised. Who is your ideal?
Also: Both parties are not comparable.
If centrism isn’t dead how is it alive after Garland, and the deluge? Who is your counterpart in it?
Can people stop talking about McGovern? It’s not 1972. We’re in a hyper-partisan era. Either party could nominate Zombie Hitler and still get 45%.
BTW: That’s a very strong thing to say about the dem party. They seem to be having a normal primary to me. Anything wrong with calling it that? I think a lot of us are getting caught up in social media and cable media anxieties. A withering on the vine scenario is out there I’m sure but it comes from the tronp swamp. The far right needs it. I don’t want to give it to them.
I think bipartisanship is, for the moment, dead. The Republican party is now 90-95% behind Trump; the anti-Trumpers have left the party and gone independent. But what I’m saying is that many of those independent voters aren’t necessarily going to embrace Bernie Sanders or anyone who coopts his ideas. That’s pretty evident by the vote in New Hampshire last night. There is a lot of skepticism about Sanders and his pet proposals.
I think bipartisanship as a vision that appeals to voters is very much alive, sells better than hyperpartisanship, and has more chance of happening than does success of bringing change by hyperpartisanship does. Which is a low bar to be sure.
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Like Obama, who was, by one respectable measure, the most liberal U.S. Senator, Sanders proves surprisingly centrist to the few objective observers that can be founed. His first term starts with a recession that proves much milder than the famous last one, a success that will be his legacy. Bernie’s health then leads to him being a one term-president. In 2024, Abrams beats Trump Jr.
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(I’m afraid this is the most likely) Bernie loses in a squeaker.
and can’t be ruled out:
- Bernie wins fairly, but doesn’t make the White House because of what happens when Pence leads the House electoral vote count.
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Bernie pivots
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Bernie gets more statesmanlike
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Bernie wins a war
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Bernie loses a war
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People like him and his policies seem fair
Cmon we got to nail this DOWN. Let’s cap it at 500.
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Bernie gets the nomination and then has another heart attack, not fatal, but more serious than the last one
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Bernie and Trump BOTH have heart attacks
487 more to go.