I’m still unsure of who I’ll support. Based on a combination of issues and my feelings on electability, right now some combination of Bernie, Klobuchar, Harris, and maybe Booker are in my top 4. I like Buttigieg but I’m not sold on him yet. I’m looking forward to the debates, and I hope one of these 4 will separate themselves.
Update: Senator Michael Bennet (D-Colorado) has just entered the race.
Regardless, we have the President urging the very-willing attorney general to investigate his political opponents, while the Pres’s personal lawyer is going to foreign governments and asking for the same.
However, to be honest, if I’m Michael Bennet, I wouldn’t worry too much about this. 
Bennet is the guy who ate Ted Cruz’s lunch during the government shutdown. Michael Bennet Slams Ted Cruz’s ‘Crocodile Tears’ In Fiery Speech On Shutdown | NBC News - YouTube
According to the Betfair prediction market, Cory Booker is now a distant long-shot. 
Pete Buttigieg rounds out the top four. Predictit.org is similar.
At each of the two sites, Biden/Sanders/Harris/Buttigieg/Warren/O’Rourke/Yang are shown as the seven most probable nominees, though Predictit shows Yang well ahead of O’Rourke.
Regardless of whether Barr investigates Biden, Biden’s familial ties to the Ukranian/Russian orbit are inherently hazardous considering all the time that the Democrats have spent litigating Russian interference in American politics. I expect that the Democratic field of candidates will find it impossible not to broach this issue during their debate exchanges.
Bernie Sanders is a great activist, but activists often find themselves uncomfortable when they’re not in activist mode, which is one of the reasons why I find it hard to believe he’d be an effective president. He’ll stamp his feet, pull out his hair, and scream bloody murder that the system is rigged and that people are obstructing his plans for progress. Realists like Obama and Biden understand that this is part of the job and at least try to adapt.
And I can already hear the furious typing from our resident Bros: “But you change the system, maaan!”
To be fair Obama came out of an activist background. It is possible. Not that I think Sanders has the capacity to do it.
I think there are lots who are not too dissimilar to me - who would be fine with Biden but who are hoping to see something special and more exciting out of someone else as the process goes on, maybe from Harris, maybe Booker breaking out. I’m thinking that Buttigieg will fade as he gets closer looks and is taken more seriously thus more critically. Biden represents the default choice, safest one but well a bit boring of one.
My hope though is that it happens on the strengths that that one demonstrates during debates, and not by way of tearing down Biden.
Was Biden as strong with Black Democrats before he served with Obama? If so, why?
I agree with you that Obama was a great activist, but it was clear he was also a pragmatist and extremely skilled in terms of developing relationships across cultural lines. That’s one of the attributes that doesn’t get talked about enough with Obama. I’m often not on the same page with Slacker but I think he nailed it with his description of Sanders: he is visibly uncomfortable when he’s not in Burlington, DC, or Brooklyn. Mind you, I’m not saying that’s even abnormal - people are comfortable with what they’re familiar with, and being an activist in Chicago 50 years ago doesn’t make you comfortable working with people of color on a regular basis. Working with people of color on a regular basis is what makes you comfortable doing that. To his credit, I think Bernie is trying, but it might be too little, too late. I still like Bernie as a senator, but I worry that his presence as a presidential candidate is going to be, again, destructive.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D5lJn6QX4AEDj5H.jpg
chart that shows various traits of a candidate and how people may or may not vote for them such as age or gender.
Interesting. Being black is more desirable than being a white man.
It doesn’t mention it on the graphic, but is that a poll of Democratic voters? All voters? Likely voters?
There is no provision in the Call for the Convention to force any candidate to withdraw. I also can’t find any rules concerning when a “pledged” delegate is free to vote for any candidate. The closest I can find is this: “All delegates to the National Convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.” I think the rule is, a candidate has to announce at the convention that they are releasing their delegates, but I am not 100% sure about that.
Some states may have their own laws concerning when a delegate is “released”; California, however, does not - at least, not for the Democratic Convention. For the Republican Convention, California law says a delegate from California is released on the second ballot if the candidate withdraws or got less than 10% of the vote on the first ballot, or on the third ballot unconditionally.
I thought the delegates were released after the first round, but would still be likely out of loyalty to back the candidate endorsed by the person they were originally pledged to. Which therefore makes it easy to cut deals. For example, let’s say Harris has 23% of the delegates, Beto has 17%, and Booker has 14%. They all team up and decide Harris gets the top of the ticket, Beto runs for veep, and Booker gets to be Sec’y of State or whatever Cabinet position he wants. Voila, 54% takes it (as long as the superdelegates don’t overrule this).
First off, none of the three you mention are candidates I can envision myself voting for in the primary (one of them won’t be an option of course). But more importantly, did you even read what you were responding to?
I’M NOT TALKING ABOUT HIS CIVIL RIGHTS RECORD. Nor am I talking about what’s in his heart. I’m talking about how awkward he is when he engages with black audiences. As asahi noted, he has lived a long time and he has spent the vast majority of that time around white people. He just doesn’t have the experience a Democrat from the South, from California, or from a diverse Midwestern state like Illinois or Michigan, has in terms of retail politicking with black voters. (Actually, I’m not sure how good he is at retail politicking–which does not mean speaking at a podium to big rallies–in general, even for white restaurant diners or whomever.)
Sometimes I think people who back Bernie just want to say “His policies are the best, so pressing the flesh and smoothing doesn’t matter.” But actually, this is politics and it does matter. (Of course, these are the same people who don’t see how ludicrous it is, in light of the poll findings linked upthread, to even consider nominating a 78 year old socialist.)
The people putting Yang ahead of Beto are just throwing away money on a lark or wishful thinking. I would bet everything I own that Yang will not be the nominee. I don’t know if I can “short” these people (like take the field against Yang), but I’d do that for a sure payoff even if I have to give them 100-1 odds or whatever.
ETA: Sorry, I’m a little fucked up tonight. I meant to put this into the above post. I also meant “schmoozing” rather than “smoothing” in that post.
There is no ‘House’ or ‘Bookie’ at either Betfair or Predictit. They function like a broker matching ‘bears’ and ‘bulls.’ Right now the Predictit line on Andrew Yang is ‘Buy 10¢ Sell 91¢,’ so: Yes, you can put up $91 and ‘short’ Yang. I don’t know how many shares are available at that price — maybe if I created an account there it would show me.
I’ve not looked into the details of those sites. There’s a commission. I think it’s 10% of the winnings, so your $91 ticket on Yang would win only $8.10, not the full $9. Do you need to put the funds in escrow until the convention? $91 for a “sure” $8.10 profit sounds good, but you might have earned $4 on the money just with some savings account. And the maximum bet is $850 — that might have been a concession to avoid prosecution in the U.S.
I toyed with the ideas of betting Romney in 2012, and betting Hillary in 2016, but refrained. 
I plan to keep my refraining record intact. 
I miswrote. The quotation reads ‘Buy Yes 10¢ Buy No 91¢.’
Yeah, that says to me that people who spend way too much time on the internet are vastly over-represented among Yang supporters.
reports say NYC mayor de Blasio will enter the race next week.
I am taking seriously the possibility that Biden will continue to chug along and consistently pick up 30-40% of the vote over a number of primaries until he has built an
unbeatable lead.
- I think 40-50% of the Democratic primary voters are going to be Biden friendly. These will be older, whiter, relatively moderate. They don’t make much noise on Twitter
but they do vote. And I don’t get the sense that too many of the other candidates are making a serious play for these voters. They are all chasing the noisier, leftier
parts of the party but there are only so many of those and they will be split several ways. - My guess is both Sanders and Warren will last deep into the primaries, splitting the left vote to Biden’s advantage. In general I think there will be several candidates with
deep pockets who will continue for a while and no natural candidate who will make it a one-on-one race early enough to matter. - Biden is already leadingthe endorsement primary and that lead will probably
keep expanding. He has spent vastly more time in Washington than anyone else and cumulatively those endorsements will help him particularly with low-information, older voters.