It’s encouraging that a less radical leftist is leading the democrats. I wonder how the far left progressives will handle Biden being the nominee. Will pragmatism prevail or will petulance?
I think Elizabeth Warren’s rise is Bernie Sanders’ biggest problem right now. He probably suspected that Biden would get a lot of the early press, but he assumes (like I do) that Biden will look a little more mortal once the debates start. But Warren and Harris represent problems for Sanders, and some of the others like Buttigieg, O’Rourke, and Booker could be spoilers.
Just wanted to mention the latest SC poll, which has Booker down in the single digits with Warren and Buttigieg (such that all of their numbers, put together with those of Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders, don’t add up to Joe Biden’s).
Are you encouraged enough, octopus, that you’d vote for Biden over Trump in 2020?
I don’t think of Joe Biden as a “leftist” though he is to the left of Trump. Biden is not radical in any sense.
From octopus’s political standpoint, Bob Dole was a radical leftist. Apply as many salt grains as required.
On another note, I’m running out of fingers counting the candidates which, according to one person or another using one metric or another, are the “only person capable of beating Trump”. I’ve been fervently assured that Bernie, Biden, Beto, Buttegieg, Booker, etc (and that’s just the B’s) would be the savior of the country and/or the Democrats if only the DNC had the sense to see this.
I remain unconvinced that the way is so clear at this point. The US is a deeply divided country and is not going to suddenly come to its senses and pull together based on a cheery smile and a pithy slogan. None of the candidates are perfect and none have yet convinced me that they can steer this ship safely through the stormy waters ahead. Fortunately there is still time for one (or indeed more than one) to make that case.
Quite a few are so capable. Altho i am tentatively backing Biden as our best chance, by no means is he our only chance. I think Booker just crossed himself off, however. I think Harris is now angling for Veep.
Sanders could do it, depending on how much they drag him in the mud. Beto too.
I dont think middle America is quite ready for a openly gay candidate, sad to say. 
Yes, quite a few are capable. Possibly all of them, but I don’t think we should risk it by nominating someone who is at the lower end of the electability curve.
I scoffed at Biden’s chances of getting the nomination as of just a couple weeks ago. But I am not one to stubbornly dig my heels in when I get new evidence. Biden now looks like a juggernaut. I had some items I was planning on sharing about Booker and Bullock, but…what’s the point? Josh Marshall at TPM nails it:
https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/it-wasnt-a-bounce-bidens-support-is-growing
This primary race that once looked like it was shaping up to be a barnburner is increasingly looking like it will be an anticlimactic snoozefest.
Hard to believe Biden is four years older than Trump. Either Trump just seems old, or Biden seems young.
Does he, though?
Well his hairpiece is nicer.
Is there any human alive about whom that’s untrue? LOL
Seriously, though: in my mind’s eye I see Biden circa 2012. Then when I see images from 2019, he looks a lot older now, IMO.
According to SocSec actuarial tables, there is a 6% probability that an arbitrary American male of Biden’s age will no longer be collecting checks by November 2020. Moreover, even if he’s still getting his checks I don’t think voters would be happy choosing a man who was ill, or even who looked too old.
The D’s need a back-up quarterback, but I don’t see anyone as likely to beat Trump as a healthy Joe Biden would be.
You are right: we do need to pick a backup QB, and preferably one around 45-50 (historically the sweet spot for Democrats). I hope there’s a smooth process to determine the replacement nominee. Like what if it’s September, and Biden’s running mate is not even someone who ran in the primaries? Or what if he dies the day before the election? How about the day after?
and the Montana governor decided to spend a few months running for president. Reminds me of this:
Bobby Jindal Not Sure He Willing To Put Family Through 2-Month Presidential Campaign
He would probably be a very strong general election candidate. But he won’t get the chance.
Tim Ryan also has no shot. But he did make an interesting criticism on HBO of Democrats for thinking a $15 minimum wage is an economic plan, when it’s really a social justice issue. The people he represents in Youngstown are already making $15, but they used to make $30 or $40. He wants to put them to work making electric cars, batteries, and solar panels. Works for me.
Obviously if Biden, Sanders, or Warren are the nominee, the VP matters quite a lot. And the Democratic bench is strong, although I don’t think it should be anyone currently running. The field is full of the ambitious but unready. The people who are unexciting but absolutely ready to be President are people not running: Duckworth, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine, Terry Mac, Kathleen Sebelius, Charlie Crist, Russ Feingold, Deval Patrick, Joe Manchin, Evan Bayh, Andrew Cuomo…
Kaine was pretty much a non-entity in 2016 - I bet a lot of people have already forgotten he was Clinton’s running mate. Duckworth isn’t ready yet, Cuomo has baggage, Crist isn’t well-liked…in fact that whole list is less a “Who’s Who” and more a “Who?”.
My own posts in this thread may be misleading as to my personal views. I’ve been babbling like Biden and Booker were the only candidates who can possibly defeat Trump. I’m not sure that’s wrong.
But if an omnipotent genie came up to me with “Septs! You pick a nominee and I’ll promise to put him/her in the White House come 2021.” I would not hesitate. In such a filthy time, the woman is a true heroine:
Elizabeth Warren for President
Unfortunately there is no magic genie. I am feared that in Trump vs Warren the Lie Machines and Hate Machines would come together with unparalleled strength, probably with illicit interference by Russia, etc. [INDENT]Sigh.[/INDENT]
ETA: Or am i wrong? The worst charge against Liz is that she over-emphasized a curiosity in her pedigree. On a scale of 1 to 10, I can imagine worse Trump mischief.
Yeah. I’m asking my delegates to change their allegiance one more time.
Yes, the redneck steelworkers of Pennsylvania might be far too misogynistic to turn out for a woman, especially “Pocahontas.” But if Liz can get the rednecks’ wives to vote for her, she may still flip the Keystone State. (What do Penns. polls show re:Warren? And I do hope some group take up the task of detecting spousal coercion.)
But will she be able to tailor her message to appeal to the non-Deplorable wives of Deplorables and semi-Deplorables?
It’s hard to believe Bernie has a chance, so let’s just consider Biden. There’s a 10+% chance that Biden will become ill before the Election, and another 25% chance that his excessive age will become too evident for a Biden candidacy to succeed. But the DNC will be too incompetent(*) to replace Biden as it should, when necessary to make a big boost to the chance of electoral success.
No; the risk is too great. If Biden has nominated V.P. Kamala Harris, and she is designated president, she will lose to Trump. Likewise if Bernie has the 2nd-highest delegate count and is assigned as designated nominee, Bernie can’t beat Trump. Of the other front-runners excepting Warren, only Booker would be odds-on IMO.
So: I’ve talked myself into it. I instruct all the delegates and super-delegates I control to support Senator Elizabeth Warren for President.
The non-Deplorable wives of Deplorables is a big overlooked demographic niche. They didn’t turn out for Killary. Will they turn out for Liz?
Please recall that back in 2016 I was asking Hillary to step down in favor of Biden even after the convention. Dopers laughed at me, and condescended to teach the primary process. Turns out Chairman Debbie (or was it Chairman Donna?) of the DNC was thinking like me, but couldn’t pull it off, with the DNC moribund.)
In 2016, Ds would have won if they’d follow my instruction and dumped Hillary for Biden late in the process (when Hillary appeared to show physical frailty). Now in 2019 I’m offering opposite advice to D’s: Dump Biden for Liz Warren! Tactically it’s probably best to wait several months, watching Biden waste inertia and fizzle out by himself.
You’re being unrealistic in thinking that these wives are not generally in lockstep with their husbands when it comes to politics. In my experience, they usually are. And it’s not because they’re just mindlessly following their husbands. They see all the same memes and bullshit on the internet and they’re also true believers.