Yeah, if I could magic-wand a candidate into the White House, Warren would be a strong contender for me… but I have to admit that her numbers are terrible. And I’d be about as happy with Sanders in the White House, and he’s looking a lot stronger than she is.
And that’s why I’m not thinking about her as the presidential nominee. As I ponder the idea of a Biden-Warren ticket, I think her passionate “lunch bucket” policy focus would play well in the Industrial Midwest as Biden’s running mate.
She’s a known policy wonk who talks a LOT about things that matter to blue collar families. Here’s a speech from last month that is almost entirely talking about 1)Her lower-middle-class roots and 2)Fighting for working families. There’s also the rumor that Joe wanted her as his running mate, were he to have run in 2016, so he even recognizes her balancing strengths.
And at the end of the day, people aren’t voting for or against the running mate (or her voice or quirky affectations or even her popularity in the primary), but the running mate *does *show voters a little bit more about the nominee’s priorities and values. I don’t think Industrial Midwestern voters would be ready to vote her into the presidency, but damn, I think her wonkishness on behalf of working families would (potentially) be a nice complement to Joe Biden.
Biden’s experienced, folksy, passionate, emotional, charming, decent, moral, well-known, respected, moderate. Warren’s extremely smart, policy-focused, has fought for the middle class for years, and she’s as progressive as Bernie. I’m beginning to think that this might be a rock-solid ticket. And I say this begrudgingly because I really, really wanted this to be the election that ushered Generation X into the White House, as well as a Latino/a.
I don’t think Warren’s top-of-the-ticket material, but I think this is the week I’ve begun to be sold on her as a running mate.
This is politics. And in politics, it’s not “smartest, most insightful policy wonk wins”. That would be lovely, but it’s a pipe dream.
In real life, hardknuckle politics, if a nice man like Nate Silver who is very smart makes you a data-driven list like that, you don’t put the person* in dead last of the entire House and Senate* on your national ticket. That’s an ironclad rule. Hard and fast. And you should really question why you are doing it if it’s someone anywhere in the bottom half, especially the bottom quarter or decile.
Think about it. It means, as a Democrat, that you have shown an impressive ability to convince Democratic leaners to lean back the other way and vote Republican, even while voting for a Dem in other races. Impressive. But not desirable on a national ticket in a divided country with structural advantages to the GOP.
Based on the responses, it seems my hope that Warren was electable derived from intoxication and wishful thinking. Would she also drag down the ticket even as Veep running-mate?
But I don’t think Bernie Sanders has a chance either — did you see the irrational contempt for just the word “socialism” in a recent GD thread? Restructure SocSec and get asked if you want to move to North Korea?? That’s what Sanders would be up against.
So we’re stuck with Likable Joe? Under-qualified in his prime, he’s visibly past his prime now. Smart money is on the GOP to keep the White House for Four More Years. Sigh.
Recent CNN poll (the only general election poll in the last couple month by a pollster that 538 grades “A”):
Beto beats Trump by 10 points!
Biden and Sanders each by 6…
Harris by 4…
Mayor Pete by 3…
Warren LOSES by 1.
This poll looks a lot better for Beto and (relatively) worse for Biden than most others, but the general pattern is pretty consistent.
Yup. Only white guys need apply.
But seriously, whatever grade 538 gives them, a poll that puts Beto at the head of the pack gets a :dubious: from me.
Harris is neither white nor a guy.
Could I get a link to this poll? I tried looking. I got nothin’.
I also looked for 538 pollster ratings. The only thing I found is this old rating list updated May 2018 that has CNN listed as a B+ rating. Perhaps you have a newer version?
Here is their constantly updated database of polls. Scroll down to May 2. From there you can follow a link to the poll’s raw data.
I see that just in the last few hours they have added another A-graded poll of Pennsylvania in which Beto is the only candidate losing to Trump!
Thanks! Yup. Was just going to ask you about that Quinnipiac poll. From headlines I’ve been reading, O’Rourke has been sliding down a lot in the last couple weeks.
This is the last part of a sentence from a quote in an article in New Hampshire about Yang that I left off because it wasn’t about Yang.
Also, is that the CNN poll that is being hotly contested by the progressives and Nate Silver?
It may in fact be that white guys are more likely to beat Trump. Is that really a shock after 2016?
And why are you skeptical of Beto appealing most across the aisle? Isn’t that already clear by his amazing performance in Texas last November?
Nor is she favoured to beat Trump over some one term Congressman from Texas according to that poll.
Because Beto is a goofy empty suit and imho much of his Senate run performance can be attributed to the massive money he got from Dems across the nation wanting to stick a knife in Cruz. I do think he’s a solid campaigner though - I said earlier that he could be a VP candidate and be quite useful.
She still wins.
Beto could be a great Veep, it is* juuuust* possible he could bring in Texas (at least TX will be in play and Trump will have to spend $ and time there). OTOH, if it’s Biden, what better balance for a old white guy than a younger black woman? Not that I am a big fan of Harris, but…
Beto served THREE terms in Congress under two presidents. And the “empty suit” tag is a myth. I don’t believe anyone who claims this has watched his Q&As with an open mind. I can’t remember a candidate, in decades of closely following politics, who had so much relevant and specific information ready to cite, even on unexpected topics.
NY mayor de Blasio joined the race today
yay
If O’Rourke couldn’t win Texas against Cruz, then he can’t win Texas against Trump, either. You might argue that, even without flipping Texas, he might still flip some other states which are similar to Texas but not quite as red… but if you’re making that argument, then you should list those states.
Buttigieg says he is also of a minority. Minority status has now become something to clamor for.
I’m not sure why this would bother anyone: