Help me be a smarter Keno player (cuz I really don't have a choice not to play this weekend)

The Game Room
1

Yeah yeah, I know, Keno odds suck and are basically a dumb tax placed on those who play. However, my whole dad’s side of the family is addicted to the game, and whenever I’m at his house, they always take me along. Strangely enough, the only time anybody ever wins 3 figures or more is when I’m not there. So, any mathematical geniuses here want to help me figure out the best way to play?

Okay, first of all, I’m well aware that it doesn’t matter WHAT numbers I choose, because it’s all random. I could just go across a row, or corners or throw out any random numbers or play my birthday. That “what’s hot” and “what’s not” banner between games is there just to egg on the gullible.

However…there IS a bit of strategy involved, since the NY Lottery system allows you a choice of playing between 1 and 10 numbers, each of which has its own set of odds and payouts. Most of my family insists on playing 4 numbers, because it has the best odds (1:3.86) of winning ANYTHING - even though that means that you have a 1:3.86 odds of winning $1 (or getting your bet back, so not actually winning anything other than maybe the bonus spin*), so I imagine that the odds of getting 3 out of 4 numbers, for a $5 win are way higher than 1:4…and even if you get all 4, that’s still just $55, which’ll cover your pot for the night, but still not cover everyone else’s. I’ve tried messing around with some other ones. I’ve done 7 numbers the last couple of times (overall chance of winning your bet back is 1:5.46…and that’s if you get 0 out of 7, which is tough but still more doable than getting 5 or more - and I once got 4 out of 7 which was for $2), since at least that tier has the POSSIBILITY of winning some real money, at 1 in a million odds, I bet, but at least the option is there.

Some of these have higher odds of winning anything at all, but in all of those cases, each minimal win is at least a profit from the original bet. Should I be looking at say the 8 spot, which has a 1:9.17 of winning at least $2, or even the 10 spot which has 1:9.05 (for getting 5 out of 10 - 0 is $5!)? I don’t think I’d want to play the 2 spot, since it only pays $10 and I would go crazy waiting on just 2 numbers.

The complete list of odds and payout tiers is here

I’m going back to their Keno bar tomorrow night. The standard bet is $20 for 10 rounds, with the bonus spin. Which tier would have the best value?

  • = if you add $1 more to your bet (making each round cost $2), you can get a bonus spin, which might give you 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x payout if you win. Everyone in my family always plays this, and it does seem to me like the odds of getting at least 2x (1:1.4) are worthwhile, especially if you’re in a grid that has $1 wins. However…at 2x you’re still only winning your original bet back. I suppose one win of something more significant would make the bonus spin a non issue in the long run.
2

Once you get up into high numbers the likelihood of getting zero spots is so remote that they’ll pay out for that accomplishment. In Vegas you can play 20-spot Keno where 0 spots pays very handsomely.

There’s no straightforward answer to your question because it depends what you’re trying to accomplish here. Unlike, say, blackjack, which has an ideal strategy from which any deviation means you lose faster, your keno game doesn’t offer much except slightly different rates of catastrophic loss. However, one approach here might be to determine which of two general approaches you want to take:

  1. Do you want to lose money as slowly as possible? Or,

  2. Do you want the thrill of taking a shot at winning a really significant chunk of money?

If your preferred approach is Approach 1, play 1-spot, which maximizes your wins and minimizes your losses. The odds aren’t as good as 4-spot for any victory but as you point out, most 4-spot wins would just win your bet back. 1-spot gives you double your bet on all wins.

If your preferred approach is Approach 2, play more spots. Part of gambling is the thrill; that’s where the fun is. If you play 7-spot your odds aren’t as good but you COULD win five thousand clams, and that would be pretty awesome. Even if you just hit three or four numbers early you’ll get a tingly sensation. It’s fun. May as well go for fun, right?

A lot has to do with your persona risk-reward algorithm and how much thrill you get from gambling, which we can’t quantify.

I don’t think I’d want to play the 2 spot, since it only pays $10 and I would go crazy waiting on just 2 numbers.

The complete list of odds and payout tiers is here

I’m going back to their Keno bar tomorrow night. The standard bet is $20 for 10 rounds, with the bonus spin. Which tier would have the best value?

  • = if you add $1 more to your bet (making each round cost $2), you can get a bonus spin, which might give you 2x, 3x, 4x, 5x or 10x payout if you win. Everyone in my family always plays this, and it does seem to me like the odds of getting at least 2x (1:1.4) are worthwhile, especially if you’re in a grid that has $1 wins. However…at 2x you’re still only winning your original bet back. I suppose one win of something more significant would make the bonus spin a non issue in the long run.
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3

Moved IMHO --> The Game Room.

4

A big part of this IS the fun. Whether we win or lose (and apparently they DO win some of those $55 with 5x for $275…just never on nights when I go,so I don’t know if I’m just being humored) we still have a good time. My 85 year old grandfather (who got really upset, for REAL after he turned 81 and could no longer play his age,so now plays his birthday plus 58) is the only one who goes home depressed if he didn’t hit anything. Sometimes my dad or I become smartasses and have the bartender print out the answers as soon as the bets close (yes, the numbers all get generated 30 seconds BEFORE the animation starts!) so that we can yell out the numbers right before they land. It’s always fun watching the balls drop if we don’t know where they’ll land. That’s why a 1 spot doesn’t sound like much fun, since the big thrill is looking for that last number…or Rooting AGAINST your numbers if there’s a good chance of finishing with 0 (which happens quite often with 7 spots).

I don’t consider a $1 win to be a win at all. It’s more of an insurance prize “your numbers didn’t all come in but at least you broke even”. No matter what tier you play, anything more than a $1 ‘win’ have about an 8% or less chance of hitting. The 3 tier doesn’t have a $1, but the 2 of 3 for $2 has pretty good odds. I might try 5 rounds of playing my birthday, and then 5 rounds of doing either 6 or 8, and see which one works out better, both for fun and hopefully payouts.

5

Three comments.
(1) The odds on Keno are actually much better than they seem, because the payoff is so high. I tried to explain this in previous threads and won’t attempt again. The link links to another thread, as well as some responses by mathematicians in another forum.
(2) What’s good about keno is the large emotional action (the usual goal of gambling, after all) per dollar. For a $1.40 investment you get to watch those numbers arrive slowly. (Think of how many coins you’d pump through a slot machine in the same time.)
(3) In choosing a ticket, take one with the highest payoff but (assuming you’re playing small) prefer a payoff of $1499 or less.

The reason you don’t want to try to win more than $1499 is because an IRS report is then required. (Of course, no Doper would cheat on his taxes, but the IRS report is an inconvenient waste of time.) … That’s the rule for L.V. casinos, I think; I don’t know about N.Y. Lottery.

I’ll pump those payoff tables you linked to through my software, if you wish. What is the tax report threshold? Do bets have to be multiple of $1 ?

6

So I played 5 games of 3 numbers - played my birthday. I got one 2 out of 3 for $2,with the 1x bonus,so a net loss of $8. Then I tried 5 games of 8 randomly chosen numbers…and I got one 0 of 8 for $2 (again 1x) for another net loss of $8. But the really heartbreaking thing is that while playing the second set,my birthday came in TWICE,and one would have been $23x4 and the other $23x6 if I stuck with my original ticket…but yeah, we still had fun,and my dad hit 4 for 4 on the very first play, which was $55x3.