During tonight’s Padres game–which nearly lulled me to sleep due to Davis’ laborious pitching routine for the Diamondbacks–TV commentators Matt Vasgersian and Mark Grant posed this question to each other: What’s the major league record for consecutive successful pickoffs?
Mud Grant had no idea, but guessed that it was probably “around 6 or 7”, then Vasgersian said “It’s gotta be more than that”. Grant was suspicious, as am I. I’ve tried researching a number of records sites and I can’t find that damn number. Can anyone point me in any specific direction?
On August 24, 1983, Baltimore’s Tippy Martinez picked off three straight Blue Jay runners in the tenth inning of a game. He entered the game with Barry Bonnell on first and nobody out, and picked off Bonnell. He walked Dave Collins, and picked off Collins. He then allowed a single to Willie Upshaw, then picked him off, too.
Why did this happen? The Orioles had been forced to have Lenn Sakata, who wasn’t a catcher, catch that inning, so the Blue Jays were eager to steal off him… so eager they let Martinez pick them all off.
In the bottom of the tenth the Orioles won the game on a home run by… Lenn Sakata.
This is the record, so far as I am able to discern, for the most consecutive outs recorded by pickoffs, which I think is what you were asking.
Considering how statistic-happy baseball fans are, I can’t imagine what record would be “obscure.” Since you got your answer in ten minutes on a non-baseball forum, I rest my case.
Actually, that’s not what I was asking, although that’s a great story, RickJay. What I’m asking is this: what’s the record for consecutive successful pickoff throws by one pitcher? As in, every time he tried to pick someone off, he succeeded.
BobT, that’s what I was thinking too, but Mud has a habit of “guessing” at numbers and historical facts that he legitimately thinks he’s not sure of, and then they turn out to be spot on. For example, not five minutes later he “guessed” that Montreal hosted the 1982 All-Star Game. Anyway, I figure it can’t be more than six, although my guess would be more like four. We know it’s at least three, anyway.
I have no idea the record, But I decided to figure out what the record probably is… Very unscientifically, but here goes: if you figure the record is held by a pitcher with a great pickoff move who, when using his best move picks of 1 for every 12 attempts (is this realistic? it seems above average, I’m not counting attempts where he’s not really trying to pick off the guy), So, 5 consecutive pickoffs would be a 1 in 12^5, or around 1 in 250,000 occurance
Now, as a comparison, I took a known record, Dimaggio’s 56 game hitting streak. Looking up some stats I learned that a great hitter can get a hit in 80% of his teams games (Jeter last year hit in 130 of 162 and batted .343, couldn’t quickly find a game log for Dimaggio), So the odds of that hitter hitting in 56 in a row are about 1 in 267,000
So for no other reason than this, and knowing full well there are dozens of variables unaccounted for, blah blah, I say the record should be 5, but probably 4.
if anyone’s interested, I did discover that Andy Pettitte has the record for most consecutive games with a pickoff, with 8. It’s not the stat in question, but interesting.
Why do we know it’s at least 3? My guess is it’s not more than 2.
RickJay did not say martinez picked off the runners with one attempt each, just 3 straight runners. I find it hard to believe that anyone ever picked off 3 runners in a row with only one attempt, but I guess it could happen.
The biggest problem is that when a pitcher throws a pickoff throw to a base, he isn’t always really trying to pick him off. Sometimes the throw is just to get the runner to shorten up his lead a bit on the next pitch. Sometimes the pitcher will throw over a couple of times, but not a full speed, to decoy the player into timing his move, then zip one over to pick him off.
One pitcher who picked off two successive runners is Art Mahaffey of the 1960 Phillies. After brashly predicting he would pickoff the first runner to reach base against him, he picked off the first two, though I don’t know if it was on successive throws to first.
It’s highly unusual for a pitcher to be actually expecting to throw out a runner with a pickoff; many throws are just to keep the runner nearer the bag. Since calculating the odds assumes that every throw has an equal chance of catching the runner, Bootis number is meaningless.
If Martinez managed to throw out his three straight batters on consecutive pickoffs, that’s probably the record. If he didn’t do it, I’d be surprised if it were three.
Agree, this would be like trying to figure out what pitcher got the most consecutive outs with the first pitch to each batter- you may notice it whilst someone is doing it, but no way to check throughout history.
Doesn’t surprise me, since Pettitte’s pickoff move constitutes a balk. When he throws to first, he moves his right foot at about a 45 degree angle from the mound, which is illegal-you must step toward the bag you are throwing to when your back foot is in contact with the rubber. I dunno why he doesn’t get called for it, other than his reputation.
Sorry to be an ass, but Pettitte’s incessant balking…um…stellar pickoff move pisses me off-severely.
If it’s higher than three or four (and I don’t know for sure if Martinez got them all on three straight throws, but I believe he did) I’d be shocked. As others have pointed out, however, you can’t answer this anyway, since the records aren’t there for most of the history of baseball.
Um, well, it all depends upon what you consider “steps directly toward such base…” For some time, it’s been my understanding that this simply means that the right foot of a left-handed pitcher need only be headed more to first than to home, and that’s true regardless of whether you are a hated Yankees pitcher or a piss-poor Cubs pitcher.
Great work, Bootis, and very interesting findings.
Whoops. Thanks for pointing this out.
Not necessarily. It’s reasonable to assume that whoever set this record was intending to pick off each of the runners, so if Bootis’s number is a reasonable estimate at how likely such a throw is to succeed, then his math is sound.
According to an article by Eric Neel for espn written in 2005 he says that a pitcher named Brian Anderson of the California Angels picked off 8 straight at some point in the period between 2003 and 2005.
I don’t know where you get the 1 expected success in 12 attempts. it doesn’t seem either reasonable or unreasonable. I have no idea whatsoever, never read anything on it, but it looks like a made up number so i wonder about the relevance.
As for DiMaggio, I don’t get the connection. Though many say his record will never be broken , I think it will. The more important records become, the more effort that goes into breaking them. IIRC there was some uproar about pete Rose (or maybe someone else) bunting for a hit to maintain his streak, something DiMaggio certainly did not do. The other thing is that DiMaggio did not have a remarkably high batting average over the period of the streak. IIRC it was like .397 or so, if that is correct that average has been achieved by many players for an entire season, though none came close to matching the streak, possibly because at that time the record was meaningless. DiMaggio was an aberration, he nearly got a hit several times the day he was stopped and then went on to hit in several more consecutive games. He also had two very long consecutive game hitting streaks while playing in the pacific Coast league. To use his record as an example to determine the likelihood of some pitching event occurring seems pointless to me.
“Reasonable” is in the eye of the beholder. Bootis is merely making a bunch of assumptions, and there is nothing “reasonable” about them.
This is typical of the failings of Sabermetrics: making “reasonable” assumptions and then making the mistake of believing the numbers that result prove anything. I could just as easily make “reasonable” assumptions that prove something else entirely.
Even given the numbers, he even admits his 1 in 12 figure is just a number pulled out of the air. What if it’s 1 in 20? One in fifty? Why is one in twelve a magic number?
Further, all he has calculated is the probability that a pitcher would get that number of pickoffs in that number of throws. However, probability does not predict anything; unless it’s a probability of 1, then probability does nothing to say whether the event has happened.
…Really? .397 is an exorbitant average. Ted Williams was the last .400 hitter IIRC, and that was a long time ago. It’s not like a cavalcade of batters have come within three points, either; the last really serious challenge came from Tony Gwynn during the strike season in the 90s. (There was a hitter in Colorado who we thought might hit .400, but that was Colorado, and he didn’t.)
According to DiMaggio’s biography, it was quite celebrated at the time. Even the normally stoic Joltin’ Joe himself got caught up in the fervor.
For the record the word ‘directly’ doesn’t appear in the rule, so that would help out your argument somewhat. IIRC, Pettitte steps almost exactly the same distance toward first AND home when he throws to first-in effect he is stepping toward the first base dugout. Calling a balk is very subjective, but the rule of thumb I was taught was to use the position of the pitcher’s front foot when he comes set as a reference point; when he is in the act of throwing, after his front foot passes that point, he must go home. When Pettitte throws to first, his right foot breaks this plane by at least a foot, probably a foot and a half, and he is the only pitcher-at any level-that I’ve ever seen do so repeatedly without being ever called for a balk.
And here’s an interesting tidbit-Dimaggio’s hitting streak occurred in 1941 (he hit .357 for the season), the same year Williams hit .406.
Actually, the word directly DOES find expression in the official rule:
emphasis mine
As for your rule of thumb, it’s obviously wrong. I mean, come on, the man is seen by something like 60+ umpires a year, and they don’t call what he does a balk when it’s really a balk? Don’t you understand this likely means it isn’t really a balk?
