Claims demand proof. Hersh’s evidence is paper-thin. I suppose it’s barely possible he’s correct, but with no evidence apart from Asad Durrani and “a retired senior intelligence official who was knowledgeable about the initial intelligence about bin Laden’s presence in Abbottabad,” he’s got nothing…and neither of those sources make his case with anywhere near the requisite confidence.
So, absent something stronger than this weak sauce… nope, from me.
In a later rebuttal to McCain:
I’m not entirely sure McCain said he wouldn’t do that. He said he wouldn’t tell Pakistan that he was willing to do it.
Thanks.
Regards,
Shodan
OBL was allied with the Taliban in Afghanistan, so much so that in some ways he was a member of their leadership. The Taliban was created entirely by Pakistani intelligence to control Afghanistan. Pakistan is riven with Byzantine factionalism. OBL was found in a suburb populated with Pakistani army officials.
It seems fairly obvious that people in the Pakistan government knew where OBL was and were providing him cover. Everyone in the US government knows this so they can’t tell the Pakistani government when they find out where OBL or they risk the high probability of someone in the Pakistani government telling OBL and him going to a new hiding spot. So the part of the official story about the mission being unknown to the Pakistani government is true. However, it is likely that people in the Pakistani government were working with the US before the raid.
Parts of the Pakistani government are US allies and parts are OBL allies. These two parts are in conflict. If the role of the Pakistan government in hiding OBL was known the US public would call for less support for Pakistan and this would help the part of the Pakistan government allied with OBL. If the role of the Pakistan government in killing OBL was known, then this would make parts of the Pakistan government unpopular and help the part of that was allied with OBL.
The US needs Pakistan to be, if not an ally then at least not an enemy, because the fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan is impossible if Pakistan is an enemy. Pakistan needs the US money, and the US not to be an enemy so the US does not fully support India in the dispute over Kashmir.
It appears to me that Hersh is being used by someone in the Pakistani government to hurt other people in the Pakistani government. There is enough truth about the lies the US and Pakistani government to make it credible. However, for the most part it is untrue.
How is it obvious?
My own view is that it is plausible that some people in the Pakistani government may have known where he was. It is also plausible that they didn’t know, since it wasn’t like UBL was going to the farmer’s market on Saturdays at the military base down the road. By all accounts, he rarely went outside, and never left the compound, so it isn’t like people would see him.
But you go so far as to say that it is “obvious” that the Pakistanis knew. You don’t really explain that at all, so what evidence makes it plain as day that the Pakistani government was hiding him?
puddleglum seems to be saying the same thing. Not that ‘the Pakistani government knew where OBL was’ but ‘people in the Pakistani government knew where OBL was’.
No, I’m saying it’s plausible that they knew. He’s saying it is obvious that they knew.
What’s the difference? It’s plausible that you had cereal for breakfast this morning, but I don’t think it is obvious that you did.
I think the difference is that in a better analogy, puddleglum ate breakfast at your house. So we are likely to assume that you have more information about his breakfast than merely conjecture based on the preferences of the public. I would take a middle position: it’s likely that senior elements of the Pakistani government knew where he was.
I’d just say it’s obviously plausible. I guess there’s a need to find some distinction in this debate where everyone is generally in agreement.
Well, not really. Hersh’s main point is that the US government knew that the Pakistanis knew (or that he’s off his meds again.) Whether or not the Pakistanis knew has been an ongoing debate since OBL was found. In other words, there is an actual debate here only tangientially related to the OP.