Horse Racing Tipsters.

The Game Room
1

I’m not fully sure if I’ve got the right forum, but here goes;

Without wishing to cast aspersions on SD members, I’m sure there must be one or two knowledgeable about the murky world of gambling, and able to cast some light on that mysterious breed called “tipsters”! So, here’s a couple of questions;

  1. How do you get a job as a newspaper horse racing tipster? It sounds like the easiest job in the world, or are they paid relating to their performance?

  2. Would there be any value from a punters POV in creating a tipster performance database, on the basis that it is their job to do all the analysing, and you would just be using their performances, long nights studying, to spot trends?

2

From looking at English newspapers, racing tipsters are certainly not paid on performance. They trumpet any wins they have, and ignore their failures.

3

Newspaper racing tips are generally supplied by racing journalists who are primarily employed to write articles and features for their employers. The tipping aspect of the job comes a poor second, rather like most of the horses they pick.

A racing journalist would require the communication skills necessary for any writing job plus a background in, or an intimate knowledge of, the horse racing industry. Some ex-jockeys have become journalists, which is a pity really because they are the worst tipsters of the lot.

Racing journalists are not paid according to the performance of their selections. If they were, most of them would starve to death inside a week. Look at this Racing Post Naps Table as it stands this morning, a nap being racing parlance for a correspondent’s best bet of the day.

This competition has been running for about 16 weeks so with racing taking place 7 days a week, each tipster has recommended a maximum of 112 nap selections up to press. The guy heading the table is showing £16.48 profit to a level £1 stake over the season so far. Let’s say he’s napped 100 horses during this time. His total investment is £100 and his total return is £116.48.

The guy propping up everyone else at the foot of the table is ‘Farringdon’ of The Morning Star. ‘Farringdon’ is showing a loss of £76.15 for the season from a similar investment. Furthermore, he has recommended 27 losing ‘best bets’ on the trot and if Morristown Music fails to oblige in the 4.15 at Beverley today this will obviously rise to 28. I really do hope ‘Farringdon’ isn’t actually punting on these animals.

The linked Naps Table is a primitive performance database but that’s really about as far as it goes. In my opinion there would be no mileage in setting up a performance database covering all selections in all races by all tipsters. There are 4 race meetings in England today comprising 25 races in all. A tipster/journalist, although often required to give a selection for every race, simply doesn’t have the time to go through these events and handicap them to a satisfactory level of competence.

Most of the time he’s guessing, just like the rest of us.

4

Thanks for that, Chez. I suppose if they were really any good, they wouldn’t be giving away their services in a daily newspaper!

5

Oh, they don’t have to be all that good even to sell the newsletter.

All you have to do is come up with a list of picks. Handicap the race, giving a first, second, third, and saver choice.

The next day, print up a newsletter. Credit yourself with a correct prediction if any of your choices wins. (“Six winners!”). Then sell the newsletter, shouting out the number of winners. If you charge a buck, you can do good business for the entire racing season.

6

A question that should be asked of all tipsters, whether horse racing or stock market investment:

" If you’re so smart, why aren’t you rich?"

7

So does this mean there are no consistently profitable horse racing tipsters, or that the ones that are, are a little more discreet with their knowledge? After all, aren’t gamblers frowned upon by bookmakers if they are too successful? I know they are in casinos, in the movies!

8

[QUOTE=ivan astikov]
So does this mean there are no consistently profitable horse racing tipsters…
[/QUOTE]

Yes

9

[QUOTE=don’t ask]
Yes
[/QUOTE]

Cite?

10

[QUOTE=ivan astikov]
So does this mean there are no consistently profitable horse racing tipsters, or that the ones that are, are a little more discreet with their knowledge? After all, aren’t gamblers frowned upon by bookmakers if they are too successful? I know they are in casinos, in the movies!
[/QUOTE]
Moving on from newspaper journalist/tipsters, there is a plethora of professional tipping lines available to the unwary punter should he wish to avail himself of their services.

A tipster running one of these lines will offer one or more horses to the caller, probably after giving him several minutes of prologue before he gets round to naming the selections. This gets the tipster revenue because the line is only accessible via a premium rate number at a cost of anything up to £1.50 ($3) per minute.

It’s possible to make a nice profit from this game from the phone revenue but it’s unlikely the tipster will be backing his selections himself. If he is, he has as much chance as the punter of making a consistent profit, which is practically no chance whatsoever.

If someone has a piece of information which highlights a horse’s chance of winning a particular race he will keep it to himself if he has any sense. This marks the difference between a professional gambler and a professional tipster - the gambler concentrates on getting his own money on the horse in a discreet manner while the tipster, who normally knows nothing, makes his money in the manner previously described.

If a gambler is consistently winning money, and showing a selective betting pattern as opposed to wagering in every race, the bookmaker will close his account, no question. However, a gambler who is temporarily winning and betting in a lot of races is a good client to have because the bookmaker knows the guy will lose in the long run.

11

Newspaper tipsters have to pick way too many races. A real gambler will scour the races and try to dig out a good race. He will then bet only that race. That requires discipline.
My old bookie would pay 16 to 1 max. If I made a bet and the odds came up at post, I got screwed.

12

[QUOTE=ivan astikov]
After all, aren’t gamblers frowned upon by bookmakers if they are too successful? I know they are in casinos, in the movies!
[/QUOTE]
Not in horse racing (at least in the US). There’s no chance even the best handicapper could hurt their bottom line.

US betting at race tracks is always parimutuel. That means that the track takes a cut off the top and the rest is divided up among the winners. If there’s one winner or a thousand winners in that race, the house still gets the same cut. The only fluctuation is the amount of money bet.

There are cases where the house can lose – their known as “minus pools.” These occur when

  1. There’s a very small field.
  2. There’s a prohibitive favorite.
  3. The favorite wins.
  4. A lot of people bet the favorite to show.

It becomes a problem only because the track is obligated to pay a minimum amount – $2.10 in most cases. If a heavy favorite wins in a small field, the show pool can be such that there isn’t enough money in it to pay the ten cents on a $2 bet.

However, these occur rarely – fields are usually too big for it to be a factor. Most tracks just eat the loss and win it back on the other races.

13

‘Farringdon’ of The Morning Star has tipped four more losers since post #3 of this thread, taking his barren sequence to a magnificently incompetent 31.

All four horses have started at 25-1 or bigger. Today’s tip is Abitofafath in the 3.20 at Redcar, which is 33-1 in the morning line. This leads me to assume that ‘Farringdon’ is not picking his best bet of the day. Rather, he is hoping for several miracles to to move him up the naps table. There is a monetary prize for topping the naps table at the end of the season.

Beware the reasons tipsters may have for selecting particular horses.

14

[QUOTE=RealityChuck]

US betting at race tracks is always parimutuel. That means that the track takes a cut off the top and the rest is divided up among the winners. If there’s one winner or a thousand winners in that race, the house still gets the same cut. The only fluctuation is the amount of money bet.

[/QUOTE]

Is betting different in other countries? One of the reasons I rarely bet horse racing is the increasing cut the racetrack takes - ranging from 18 percent for straight bets (win, place, and show) to nearly 30 percent in the “exotics” (perfectas, trifectas, etc.).

15

[QUOTE=ivan astikov]
I’m not fully sure if I’ve got the right forum, but here goes;

Without wishing to cast aspersions on SD members, I’m sure there must be one or two knowledgeable about the murky world of gambling, and able to cast some light on that mysterious breed called “tipsters”! So, here’s a couple of questions;

  1. How do you get a job as a newspaper horse racing tipster? It sounds like the easiest job in the world, or are they paid relating to their performance?

  2. Would there be any value from a punters POV in creating a tipster performance database, on the basis that it is their job to do all the analysing, and you would just be using their performances, long nights studying, to spot trends?
    [/QUOTE]

I know several people who earn money by selling their racing picks. Some, as Chez Guevara mentioned, are employed as racing journalists by The Daily Racing Form or newspapers. Part of their job includes making picks, but mainly they cover racing news. To get those jobs, they have to have many connections in the industry, and know how to get the interesting stories the readers want to read about. Ability to handicap really isn’t that important.

Others are independent and just sell tip sheets at the track. They don’t keep track of how well they do at picking horses. To them, that doesn’t matter. What matters is selling the sheets. They sell sheets by making their picks sound reasonable. They feel most of their customers are players who know a bit about handicapping, and like to buy the tip sheet for reinforcement of their own choices. They may read the form and be torn between the 1 horse and 8 horse. They read the sheet:

  1. Has a real shot at this shorter distance today
  2. May not like the soft turf today
  3. Hot Jockey/Trainer combo, don’t dismiss
  4. Others more likely
  5. Jockey switch should improve chances, use underneath
  6. Hasn’t shown much lately, would be big surprise
  7. Drop in class should help chances
  8. Not much success on this track
  9. Running back to best distance, should be competitive
  10. Looks to improve after layoff, but best may not be enough

The tipster chooses
1-5-3-7

The bettor feels more confident with his choice of the 1 horse, but then questions the 8 and doesn’t use it. He also likes the jockey switch on the 5 and uses that one. And does agree the 3’s connection are hot, and uses the 3.

He bets the 1 over the 5 and 3. And then the 5 over the 1 and 3.

The race comes in 5-10-1-3

He doesn’t cash a ticket, but feels he was right to switch over to the 5, sees the tipster did say good things about the 10, and is glad he didn’t use the 8. He gets just close enough to continue to buy the tip sheet, every so often cashing tickets.

So the tipster has done his job, looking to be making reasonable choices, and whether his picks come in doesn’t matter as much as the bettor feeling like they helped him.

And the bettor likely will still think the 1 was the right horse that should have won, and will blame the jockey for not riding hard enough, or blame not breaking out of the gate well, or find some other excuse that reinforces that he and the tipster really did have it right.

I do know a few people who make a living betting horses. They approach it as a full time job. They watch the works in the mornings, study replays, and take many, many trip notes. They don’t bet many races, but when they do bet they bet heavy, feeling very sure how that race will play out. They have to watch all the races though, and really don’t ever take time off. They are the first to tell you it isn’t glamorous or easy. It is hard, detailed work, that requires a big commitment of time. But they enjoy the challenge and work very hard at coming out ahead. To make a $100,000 they often churn through a million dollars. So the tracks love these guys and really do want to see them win.