The current polls plus forecast at fivethirtyeight has Clinton at a 55.5% chance of winning. How much worse do you all think it might get for her? This is for your prediction on what the lowest percentage chance of winning Clinton will have according to Nate Silver’s polls plus anytime between now and election day. My prediction is that she will fall to somewhere between 47.5% and 49.9% sometime between now and election day.
I think it’ll hold at around this level until Trump goes after another Gold Star family, and we all know he will.
Wait until Tuesday or Wednesday. The viewers will be looking for signs of strength, competence, intelligence, and likability – not necessarily in that order.
I went with 52.5 to 55. Not in the next few days, though – I think the downturn she’s suffered in recent weeks has leveled off for a while. But I predict one more downturn somewhere along the line, probably due to a mid-level terror incident, or to another sign of physical weakness. Then she’ll creep up slightly one more time during the last week before Election Day. The election itself will be close, but I think she’ll pull it off.
I selected “55.1% to 55.4%”, which has an element of whistling past the graveyard. Realistically, the next event likely to move the poll numbers significantly will be the first debate, and I honestly don’t know how that’s going to go. I expect Trump to use the same tactics he used effectively against Jeb Bush, and decline to guess how well (or poorly) that will resonate with the voters.
Trump is dropping in key states. He is having to fend off questions about birtherism and his foundations scandals, and this is all happening right as we’re just days away from the debates. Obama is now taking off the gloves and quite possibly in a position to exact a little bit of sweet revenge just when Trump was actually starting to improve his favorability with African Americans. It’s still a little early yet to make strong predictions, but how fitting is it that Trump could end up being bludgeoned by his handling of race, and that Obama could be the sledgehammer?
Heh. Speaking of Obama getting some sweet revenge on Trump, it occurs to me that the sweetest would be (if President Clinton doesn’t immediately nominate him to the SCOTUS) for him to be offered Trump’s old spot on Celebrity Apprentice…
Unless things flip again (and not impossible) can I please give a shout out to all of us who clicked “today is her low point” on the first day of that poll?
We rock y’all!
Congratulations to this group 
Again, I would wait until after the debates – perhaps until the Friday that follows. There will be debate, and there will be massive spin.