How could I figure the real savings on a geothermal heat pump?

So my air conditioner just went out. Looks like $1500 to replace. My furnace is 18 years old, and will need replacement soon enough.

Since geothermal replaces both heating and cooling units I figured now was the time to do some research on the subject.

I live in the USA, in Minnesota. All data I can find shows 30% - 70% savings. Which is it? I’m sure that this data depends on some factors, but how can I get the 70%? Is it 30% savings over a high efficiency furnace/AC? And 70% savings over old models that are not Energy Star certified? Is there any cost per therm or some kind of ratings I can compare to my current equipment?

The way I figure it, if a geothermal heap pump costs $20,000, then I’d get $6000 back in a tax rebate. My furnace and AC would cost about $6000 together also, so the extra cost of the geothermal unit is $8000. In addition to that, my electric and gas company has a $150/ton rebate (although I’m not sure what a ‘ton’ is in reference to geothermal).

I can’t figure out how long it takes to pay for itself without more information from there!