I was sitting around thinking about the potential power of ex-presidents to persuade voters. I know that G.W. Bush does not seem to care for Trump very much; I wonder how easily he could affect the 2020 election with one brief public comment or a few sentences on Twitter. If Dubya were to endorse the Dem candidate over Trump surely that would gain enough votes to lead to a Democratic win.
Of course there’s the whole matter of “Why in the world would he do that?” But this is a just a hypothetical “what if?” He has an immense amount of power, and Obama could do a similar job against the Dem nominee (again, but why would he?).
The Ex-Prez fraternity is pretty tight, I think, and they hold themselves to a high standard of not unduly influencing politics. Trump, however, is an unprecedented boor who has broken all the rules of civility and restraint. Might that lead to unprecedented electioneering by an ex-POTUS?
The main concept is: if in late October G.W. Bush tweeted “I am asking all Republican voters to not support Trump. If you can’t vote for the Democrat, please just stay home.” What would happen?
He publicly stated that he was not going to vote for Trump in 2016. He was one of the 4 out of 5 living GOP nominees that said that. That included the two former presidents. Bob Dole was the only exception. None of former nominees attended the convention. That was already unprecedented electioneering.
Nothing would happen. George W. Bush has been out of office for a long time, was not terribly popular when he left (just before the 2008 election, his approval rating was 25%), and the typical Trump supporter isn’t likely to listen to any member of the Republican “establishment” anyway.
You probably weren’t listening to Rush Limbaugh during the 2016 campaign, but he was pushing Ted Cruz right up until Cruz gave up the ghost. If Trump voters didn’t listen to Rush Limbaugh, why would they listen to to Bush.
His house might get firebombed, but that’s about it.
Trump will get almost exactly the same number of votes as he got in 2016. I don’t think anyone can change that. About 60 million Americans think Trump is the bee’s knees.
Democrats have to turn out more voters, not convince Trump’s base base.
As an aside, at some level GWB has to envy Trump. GWB had to run his gulags in secret; Trump does it in the open with no consequences. GWB had to work hard to make the tax code more regressive; Trump just implemented a national sales tax by fiat. GWB probably has to grudgingly tip his hat to Trump.
ETA: If only Trump would launch an unnecessary war based on lies, GWB would man a phone bank for him.
Anybody who cares that much about what GWB thinks will have already been turned into a never-Trumper by Trump’s constant criticism of the former president.
Add me to the hardly/not at all crowd. If Bush got into a pissing match with Trump, there’s more than enough orange juice to drown Bush in a pool of urine going strictly off the merits of his record, things that democrats and hard-right republicans can happily get behind and agree on. Democrats because it’ll be true (just one example: that whole Iraq thing, the ramifications of which are still ongoing), and republican hardliners because Trump will have said it. If anything, Bush’s support for “not Trump” could be deflected to direct the blast onto whoever ultimately runs as “not Trump.” Or so I would imagine.
Bush’s record just has too many holes in it to stand against Trump.
I don’t think it would matter at all if George W. spoke up against Trump. In fact I don’t think there is anyone on the Right that could stand up, denounce Trump, and have people change their opinion.
I think the only way some people would turn on Trump is if he made a major reversal on something.
Abortion is probably an issue evangelicals would abandon Trump for if he openly said the next Supreme Court justice he appoints has to be willing uphold the Roe v. Wade decision.
Or if he did complete reversal on gun control and said he would support repealing the Second Amendment.
It would have to be a drastic reversal on an issue though.
Republican presidents and presidential candidates have virtually no power in the GOP as soon as they are out of the running. Nowadays, GWB, Romney, McCain (before he died,) etc. are reviled by Trumpers almost as much as Democrats themselves (if Facebook is any indication.)
Given that Trump has a cult-like following and conventional Republicans like Bush, Romney, McCain, etc. didn’t, I am curious to see how long Trump will have a loyal following after he leaves office, or if his supporters will promptly ditch him for the new Republican president/candidate, whomever he or she may be, and revile Trump just like they did the others.
Good question. Given the unprecedented contempt Trump and his supporters have received, I think they might be a little less inclined to EVER admit Trump sucked. I don’t think he will be enshrined as the next Reagan though. If he loses in November he’ll take a huge hit because Republicans don’t like losers. If he wins and the world hasn’t exploded in 5 years, it will probably be a bit like it is now. The “cultists” will say he was the best ever, and the rest just won’t say anything because I don’t want to be outted as someone that voted for Trump. I think there’s going to be a bad blood between Democrats and Republicans for a long time after this.
Even though this is about GWB, it’s more about the current political climate and current politicians. With that, I think this will do better in Elections.
If Bush wanted to hurt Trump, direct opposition won’t do. Bush should imply he’d received some opposition intel during the 2000 election that suggested Trump was gay, and that Trump should just be honest about his true self, like Buttigieg is.
People look at GWB and they see a guy who started a bullshit war, who presided over the worst economy since the Great Depression, and who still got to retire in luxury to paint watercolours. That is, when he’s not dancing with Ellen or watching Wimbledon with the Obamas.
Meanwhile, they’re working deeper and deeper into retirement and rationing medication. Why would they give a damn what GWB thinks about anything?
How many undecided voters even noticed this? Had GWB, Romney and McCain instead blared their contempt for Trump in TV ads, they would have had some effect.
Perhaps they weren’t to blame then. Many assumed Trump would just play golf and let a right-wing cabal run the country. But the reality is far worse. Shame on Bush and Romney if they fail to act more forcefully this cycle! But asking them to support Sanders is too much. A 3-man race is a real likelihood.