Sure, I don’t think anyone would argue that his career between 2006 and 2013 wasn’t too hot, but he had some injuries in that time, and some pretty severe ones at that. I don’t know how much of his mediocrity can be attributed to injury, and I don’t think anyone does. My question at this point would be for how long does he have to keep putting up 2014/2015 numbers before you’d switch your assumption from “he’s going to regress to his mean” to “he’s now performing at his true level, and any regression from here is age-related”? I’m pretty much at the latter point, but it sounds like you are still at the former.
Yep, if I’m starting a team today from scratch, Cam would be top choice QB.
Because so much of that premise is based on the perceived “upside” and career longevity of younger players, let’s take age out of it. If all the NFL QB’s were the same age, would you still want Cam as #1?
It’s fine if you do. That’s your opinion. Personally, I think taking Cam, who is 1-2 in playoff games, with a 80.5 passer rating, over Rodgers who has a Super Bowl ring and 101.0 passer rating in the playoffs, would not be the best option.
Kind of. Or, more accurately, I’d say you have to bake the uncertainty into the ranking. If there’s real chance he’s the #2 QB and a real chance he’s #10, you should factor in the latter possibility, even if you think the former is more likely.
Cam has weaknesses. Rodgers has none. Consistently week after week and year after year he will win you more games than Cam.
Until like this season, he doesn’t.
The answer, as it usually is, is Andy fucking Dalton. We’re going to show the world this season, aren’t we Andy?
If Rodgers were 5 years younger would I want him over Cam? Yeah, probably.
As of today, who gets your MVP vote for this season?
At the very least Carson Palmer is by far more deserving. Andy Dalton, Tom Brady, Big Ben, AP…
I don’t think the MVP come down to who is the younger player with more perceived upside.
I’d love to see a defensive player get it. Luke Kuechley. JJ Watt. Aaron Donald. Those guys are all difference makers who are better than anyone else on their team. But they’re not a QB, so it won’t happen. I’d definitely give it to Brady or Palmer before Cam though.
I will also point out that I don’t quite understand the idea that Cam’s running is what makes him a MVP. He’s rushed for 476 yards so far, which means, if he keeps pace, he’ll end up with 640 yards total, which is by no mean bad, but he’s already rushed for more than that twice in his career. And his 4.4 ypc is the lowest of his career, and a great deal worse than Russell Wilson (5.2 ypc), Tyrod Taylor (5.0), Aaron Rodgers (6.0) or even Alex Smith (5.6).
Wow, just looked it up and Lawrence Taylor was the last defensive player to be named MVP. That’s ridiculous. (No Reggie White, no Ray Lewis, no cornerback ever).
The question of who I’d rather have on my team is not related to the MVP question.
I think there should be an offensive and a defensive MVP every year.