Sunday Early:
TB @ CLE -7
ARI @ DAL -4
PHI -2 @ HOU
NYJ @ KC -10
JAX @ CIN -11
SD @ MIA -2.5
WAS @ MIN (even)
Sunday late:
STL @ SF -10
DEN -3 @ NE
OAK @ SEA -15
SNF:
BAL @ PIT (even)
MNF:
IND -3 @ NYG
I might bet Oakland +15. They’ve played teams closer this year than people give them credit for, Seattle is beat up and there’s some discord there - even with Seattle’s home field advantage it’s hard to imagine 15 is a good line.
I also like CAR + 3 and STL + 10.
I wish the games Pittsburgh played with the illegitimate entity were less disgusting to watch. Those games are almost always entertaining and a throwback to old school football that we’ve almost entirely lost in the league. But it’s hard to root either for the obnoxious bandwagoning hilljacks or a team that has is a blight on the sporting world. I end up rooting for the Steelers and it disgusts me, but at least they’re a legitimate franchise who I respect.
Even though the Saints haven’t been good on the road, the Panthers’ O-line is so depleted, and the secondary so bad, I don’t see them winning this game. The Packers crushed them 2 weeks ago, and the Saints just beats the Packers handily.
Remember in week 7 when the Pats hosted the Jets, Jim Nance said just before kickoff that NE was 40-0 in regular season games against AFC opponents. Now they’re 41. Makes the Bronco game a bit bigger still.
Somehow, the Saints 2 turnovers are being overshadowed by Cam Newton’s horrible passing so far. He’s always had issues with throwing high (which is why they drafted Kelvin Benjamin) but so far tonight he is throwing uncatchable crap.
I jut realized that, for my main fantasy team, I’m starting Newton, Olsen, and Jonathan Stewart. How the hell did I hitch my wagon to the Panthers’ offense?
Do you pay him? He’s not going to settle for Kaepernick money, he’s going to want to get paid big time. Like $20 million a year. If it were up to you, do you pay him?
I’m pretty sure that they will. And that they’ll regret it. Unless you give him a great defense and he stays healthy, I don’t think he’d be worth it. I think he’ll be the latest to join the "waaaayyyy to much money for an average QB) club.
Sweet road win for my Saints. Defense is getting sacks and turnovers for a change. Ingram needs a lot of carries to keep his mojo going, and he’s getting them with injuries to the other backs. Brees even took a couple of sacks instead of lobbing a dying duck up for grabs like he’s been doing this year.
Newton is just too high-strung. I heard someone saying he takes losses personally. If that is still true, he needs therapy or he will never be the QB he thinks he should be.
They will. I’m torn. I don’t think he’ll ever be a great QB, but they have so many other holes to fill I can’t see them rebuilding with another rookie QB. I think if they give him a solid O-line and a deep threat to go along with Olden and Benjamin he’d win games. He is talented, but very inconsistent. He’s got mechanics issues too.
I wonder which is worse, having to develop a young QB after signing a vet to start, or tying up a huge chunk of money for a long time on a QB who is inconsistent, a potential injury risk, dependent upon his running, and who has issues throwing the ball. Neither option is a position a team wants to be in. Which is why I think the Panthers should be looking to draft a QB this year.
I think that’s true of many, many quarterbacks. Quarterbacks you don’t have to pay $20 million a year. I think the NFL overvalues QB’s who don’t suck. You no longer have to be elite or even top 10 to get a massive contract, you just have to be … not awful.
I think Newton’s next contract is probably going to be fine. We’ve got pretty significant evidence at this point that he’s around average or slightly above as a passer, that he adds real value as a runner, and that overall he compares favorably to guys like Flacco, Cutler, and Dalton. Probably somewhere in the 8-13 range if you’re ranking QBs in the NFL. You don’t love paying those guys $20 million a year, but you can build a winning team with one of them on the roster if you do the other stuff right, and year to year you’re going to do better than the teams relying on rookies or retreads. Not to mention there’s still some upside left with Newton if you do give him that O-line and better receivers at some point.
Now, four or five years down the line when he’s in his early 30s, do I want to re-extend the same guy? With the increasing possibility that he’s going to lose that rushing value due to age or injury? Particularly if he hasn’t shown any of that remaining upside as a passer? I think that’s actually the real risk here: there’s a big difference between signing the 10th-12th best QB and the 18th-20th, but it’s really hard to get away from a fan favorite if he’s still playing not-terribly. Belichick does it regularly but not many other teams can get away with it.
He’s currently the 27th rated QB in the NFL with a 81.4, behind guys like Derek Carr, Mike Glennon, benched Kirk Cousins, and Austin Davis. Last season he was 16th rated, and 15th rated the year before, so average is about right.
Do you want to pay $20 million a year for average?
And higher risk of injury. I think that’s a huge concern signing him long term. His had surgery on his ankle, he’s fractured his ribs, and the cumulative effect of the hits may keep coming. That’s the big problem with QB’s who run too much, which is why the Panthers were trying to limit his running earlier in this season. My thinking is that either Cam either runs a lot, and thus is injured more, or he’s a pocket guy, which he hasn’t been able to do successfully. Either way he plays, there’s a downside.
If you had me name three of the most overpaid QB’s in the NFL, those names would be near the top.
I think Cam Newton might be one of those QBs who gets better as he gets less mobile with age. His decision making is quite good – even last night, he generally made the right choice for who to throw to, and when to run… he just was inaccurate on many passes.
Quick and good decision making is one of the toughest things for QBs, and I think Cam’s pretty solid there. He can improve his accuracy.
I had thought Cam Newton was older than Russell Wilson because he has a year of experience on him, but Wilson is actually six months older. Weird how a team can pick up an outstanding QB at ~87 where another team picks a dud at 1. Or maybe it is just coaching.
Looking at the Football Outsiders advanced stats, he comes in around 15th for total passing value in QBs for 2011-13, and first in total rushing value. The rushing is roughly the difference between “slightly worse than the kind of overpaid guys getting $17-20m a year” and “slightly better than that same group”. It does add some additional downside over time, as we both pointed out.
Do I want to? Not really; everyone wants to be better than average if they can be. But compared to the rest of the options? That kind of guy is overpaid compared to guys on rookie deals, because by definition any good QB on a rookie deal in the current CBA is underpaid to one degree or another. Best case scenario is to draft someone who is average or better, but the success rate there is not high, especially once you get past the first few picks. ‘Star’ QBs are rarely available as free agents in their prime unless there’s a big question mark of some kind (Brees, Manning).
As I’ve thought about this today, I’ve actually talked myself into the Flacco contract more than I’d have previously thought. It’s not that in a vacuum you want to start your team by paying him $20 million, it’s that literally everyone in the “average or better NFL quarterback” group who is being paid at a market rate is making $15m+ a year. The cost is just so stupidly high if you can’t find a serviceable quarterback for an extended period of time (also known as the Cleveland Browns of the last two decades). In Carolina’s position - decent team right now, really good defense right now - I’d find it really hard to give up Newton’s late 20s to save some money and take a swing at a project QB that has maybe a 10% hit rate, based on how QBs outside the very top of the draft have done historically.