I post here in FQ because it seems there should be a straight-forward factual answer to this question. No country’s people wants to send its sons into the meatgrinder of war. However, sometimes, the public can be convinced that this almost unbearable sacrifice is made to serve some larger purpose – “freedom”, stop the spread of communism, end terrorism, retribution for an attack, etc.
Russians have been having their sons (and daughters?) coming home in body bags. Even in a totalitarian state, the state can get away with this for only so long. The families losing loved ones must be told something – that their loss serves the greater good or something. So, how is the average Russian, especially now that missiles are raining down in some parts of the country, being convinced that all of this is worth it? Since the war is not going particularly well for Russia, does this have the potential to destabilize Putin’s hold on power?
Russians are being told that it is their patriotic duty to be fed into the grinder bring Ukraine back into the fold of pan-Slavic national brotherhood, and that all of the sacrifices that are being made are in service of Ма́тушка Русь, and if you don’t like it you are a traitor to your society. This has a substantial hold on Russians to the extent that mothers have been recorded telling their prisoner-of-war Russian Army sons to not come back home because they have dishonored the family with their failure. While there is a significant movement among the younger generation to question this kind of dogmatic view, it is so vilified and punished that most people who question Russian cultural supremacy have either fled Russia or remain silent. The older generations who suffered great deprivations under both the Soviet regime and the post-Soviet collapse tend to view Putin favorably, because if he isn’t honest he is at least strong.
As for “Putin’s hold on power” it is not really dependent upon popular approval, the facile pageant of elections notwithstanding, and Putin has assured that no ready successors are in the wings awaiting his demise, either natural or accelerated. The man is not a great strategist that Western media sometimes seeks to portray him as, but he is both a masterful troll and a canny rat-killer who has eliminated anyone who might seriously question him much less build a counter-alliance, and of course has made it obvious what misfortunate awaits those who challenge him or publish unfavorable views, usually in the form of falling through a window, suffering the ills of some exotic poison, or just being sent to a work camp to be properly educated in the ways of modern Russian politics and maybe dying of frostbite/brutality/9mm Makarov in the back of the head.
AIUI, it is irredentism - that Ukraine belongs to Russia in some way historically and Russia is simply reclaiming what is rightfully its own. Along with some desire to return to Soviet glory and also some talk about de-nazifying.
Russians aren’t any stupider than any other people (how were Americans convinced that they should accept sending their sons into the meat grinder in Vietnam, Afghanistan, etc., if you want a comparison), and IME Stranger_On_A_Train is absolutely correct that
It’s not a contradiction to be a patriot and not want, (or be able to, if you are not such a patriot) leave Russia while keeping your head down as far as questioning the war or Putin’s hold of power.
Friend of a friend was just shot in the face; apparently Putin does not always bother getting fancy.
Their sales pitches vary of course. Here’s a May 2024 article:
Host of TV channel “Soyuz” Sergey Platonov told Vladimirov that he often speaks to soldiers serving in Ukraine and has been trying to convince them that there is no such thing as death. Describing one of his recent conversations with a Russian soldier, the host proudly said, “Maybe I’m boasting but I was successfully able to explain that death does not exist. He was encouraged by that!”
My understanding is that there’s an underlying narrative that the West (with its alien degenerate culture) has been systematically undermining Holy Russia’s place in the world order, organising the “colour revolution” in Ukraine to eject the Russia-friendly (corrupted) post-Soviet leadership, with its eye on taking over and dismembering Russia as it did (in their view) the Soviet Union.
So on this view Holy Russia is the front lind of sacred resistance against the Western attempt at hegemony and for the protection and preservation of noble Russian traditions.
I would question one of the premisses in the OP. Are ‘real’ Russians coming home in body bags in large numbers? I had understood that, at least earlier in the war, life went on undisturbed in Moscow, Petersburg and Novgorod. Any corpses were going back largely to the distant provinces, were mainly minorities, and this all happened a long way from any media reporting. War is a lot more popular if noone you know is doing any of the fighting and all of the costs are being borne by ‘those people’ who probably deserve it anyway.
Either way, we should avoid the classic Doper logical fallacy that rationality and logic matter in these discussions. The whole premise of this war is that Ukraine is an integral part of Russia and it doesn’t matter how many Ukrainians die or suffer in the rightful restoration of Moscow rule because they aren’t really Russian anyway.
Sandwich
Today I (re) learned that premiss and premise are both acceptable.
You would think that this sort of “with your shield or on it” type stuff would be more appropriate in a nation with a more competent military, current or historical.
Although Putin has spoken of the collapse of the Soviet Union as the great geopolitical failure of his lifetime, he doesn’t really want a return to the Soviet Era; he views himself as a Tsar and wants to return to Imperialist Russia, with Moscow as the ‘Third Rome’ that will lead to a worldwide Orthodox-driven revolution. (How much of the religious angle he actually believes is questionable but many of his chief advisors and supporters are ideologically much further to the religions and political right than he is, and they believe this.)
The “de-Nazifying Ukraine” stuff is just a transparent excuse for invasion; nobody who is not being constantly bombarded with Russian state propaganda believes that the Ukrainian leadership, or anyone by a small minority of militia members, are literal Nazis or aligned with European fascist elements such as Victor Oban. There is a persistent undercurrent of ethnic and racial prejudice in Ukrainian culture to be sure, but that is virtually ubiquitous in Eastern Europe, and indeed, in most of the developed world.
Russia has never had a “competent military”, largely owning to corruption (both historical and contemporary), lack of modern weapons and training, and no core of senior NCOs who are the backbone of any functional warfighting force. What it has had is a willingness to throw conscripts—poorly equipped and sometimes completely unarmed—into the grinder until they bring an opponents forces to a halt, and then pummeling their way through in a counterattack with the brutality of a Mongol campaign. This “sacrifice our sons for the Motherland” mentality is so intertwined in Russian cultural identity that it is scarcely even questioned. It’s just what you do.
Unfortunately for the Russians, the Ukrainian cultural memory includes centuries of persecution and planned famine going at least back to the Cossack Hetmanate, and they have no interest in ceding any more territory or becoming yet again a vassal of a Russian demagogue. There is essentially no way Russia will ever be able to hold the territory of western Ukraine even if they could somehow manage to occupy it, and it was always a fool’s errand to even try as even notional success would just accelerate the Russian Federation’s economic and demographic collapse.
First off, we’re talking about people who are constantly bombarded with Russian state media. Second, when they say “Nazi”, they don’t mean “aligned with European fascist elements like Victor Orban”, because in their propaganda, Orban is one of the good guys (or at least less-bad guys), and the actual strongest European fascist element is Putin himself.
It’s true that there is not that much independent media left in Russia (and the few journalists who insist risk arrest, being accused of being “foreign agents”, and so on) and that does take its toll.