Polls now are about as useful as a Magic 8 Ball.
I disagree, and I appreciate PhillyGuy’s post. Sure, a lot can and will happen still, but empirically the electorate in the past decade has been so closely divided, yet so stubbornly partisan, that certain polls now DO at least serve as a serious wake-up call, for the professional strategists hired by each party and candidate, and (more importantly) for grass-roots, local folks who need to keep convincing their less with-it neighbors how important their vote is (at least in the dozen or so purple states).
It is hard to believe terribly many people do not know who they prefer in Biden vs Trump. It is hard to imagine much of anything short of death of one of the candidates changing too many minds.
What hope is there that a significant number of relatively sane Repubs/conservatives will decide they do not wish the embarrassment and danger of Trump? Little, I imagine, because Trump was very good for their bank accounts and prejudices.
How many non-voters will be persuaded that the threat of Trump warrants their hauling their apathetic asses to a polling place (or requesting a mail-in ballot)?
And, of course, it only matters what happens in 5 or so states…
Really a depressing future to anticipate.
I think if Donald Trump is actually convicted prior to the election, which is very possible, that will change a lot of minds. I don’t think it’s reasonable to think otherwise.
Obviously he has his die hard supporters who will never believe he is capable of doing anything wrong. But there are lots of people who plan to vote for him because they dislike or distrust Biden more, or don’t think that there is much to the charges.
A conviction will change things dramatically. It’s a sad fact that it won’t guarantee a loss, but it makes it a lot more likely. That’s a no brainer.
Even if he doesn’t get convicted of something before the election, there may be other developments where people on his side now publicly turn against him. We saw it with Pence this week.
I think now, more than any other time in recent history, polls are especially unreliable. We’ve never seen anything like we’re seeing now. It’s absolutely silly to refer to any other past situation in regards to the reliability of advance polling. None of those situations were like now.
Of course the polls are interesting, and no they’re not completely useless. It is helpful to use them to see how recent developments have shaped people’s willingness to vote for Trump. But using it to predict how people will vote more than a year from now is not very rational. And it’s especially ridiculous to make a conclusion that Trump will win based on them.
I think Trump agrees, which is why he wants to delay the start of the trials.
I agree with you, but part of me hesitates. On January 6, 2020 I thought that was the end of Trump. Even Moscow Mitch used the word insurrection and Trump seemed rather cowed. But the Republicans didn’t take long to band together and pretend nothing was happening. I can’t rule out the possibility that they’ll do the same here.
I hope you are right.
Pence is awfully weak beer. But I guess slightly better than nothing. I’m disgusted by the many Repubs who strongly criticize Trump’s actions, but say they would vote for him.
Oh I agree with you. I was surprised though that after years of showing public loyalty and support, even after his life was threatened by Trump’s actions, Pence turned on him. That showed me that others might as well. If it starts and ends with Pence, I don’t think it will change matters much if at all for Trump.
I’ve already told a few of my Evangelical Trump voting friends not to ever tell me character matters for a politican. Because they’d be lying.
I have close family members who are devout Christians… and voted for him.
I just don’t get it.
This could be the election where both candidates die on the campaign trail… or, more likely, have game-changing health incidents.
I hope not, but it would go down in history.
Maybe I’m too cynical, but I viewed Pence’s remarks as a hail mary by someone who is basically without a job (is he receiving “welfare” from the Heritage Foundation?) who is trailing badly in the polls.
Pence and the others who are trying to attack Trump had their chance to change people’s minds just after Jan 6th. Now it’s just desperation.
I’m sure this is a factor, but I also think it finally sunk in that the hardcore MAGAs are never, ever, EVER voting for such a traitor to the cause. So there’s a possibility he swings a few moderate pubbies with no real down side.
I’d agree that there can be an inflection point that changes the contour of the race.
I thought that a jury verdict saying that he penetrated a woman’s vagina in a Firth Avenue department story might be one. But it wasn’t. When I wrote this before, I was told that verdict didn’t matter because it was he said-she said. But how would low-information voters know that? I’m a medium to high information voter, and I don’t know all the evidence presented at that trial. Similarly, I don’t know that low information voters are going to care that much that the level of proof is different for civil vs. criminal.
Now, if Trump goes to prison while appeals are pending, that might be an inflection point swaying a significant number of minds. Whether it would be is simply unknown, since no major party candidate has ever run from prison. And some of those swayed would be lazy Trump supporters motivated to get to the polls.
Swing voters are cynical. They already think there is a lot to the charges against Trump. The only possible question in their mind, when it comes to candidate integrity, is whether Biden is just as bad.
Another consideration is that Trump will have wins and losses, or ties (mistrial or conviction on lesser counts only) that he can spin as wins. This will be another factor making it possible to see Trump as no worse than others.
If Biden wins, it will be due to a good economy, or a Sister Souljah moment, not a few strange voters who, after all Trump’s years of middeeds, only realize he is a crook when a jury says he is one.
He’s highly unlikely to go to prison after conviction as long as he has appeals pending. Judges have discretion to let convicted defendants stay out on conditions, more or less severe, during that time, and since he’s never been convicted of a violent crime, has community ties, can afford to post a high bond, and so forth, he’s not going to be remanded to the custody of the Bureau of Prisons right away.
Heck, at least in the federal court system there’s usually a period between conviction and sentencing to allow the Probation and Pretrial Services Department to investigate the defendant’s history and make recommendations regarding an appropriate sentence, then there’d be a sentencing hearing, where the judge can consider Probation’s report, rule on any objections to it by either the government or the defense, hear arguments from both sides, and then announce the sentence. Even after that there’s usually a period of time between pronouncement of sentence and the defendant’s date to report to BOP.
ETA: So, no, if he’s adjudged guilty he won’t have the cuffs slapped on and be dragged out of the courtroom to prison.
Hell, I’m sadly beginning to think that trump’s infamous boast “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters” may literally be true.
Not only that: He could shoot his own voters, and if they recovered, they would vote for him again. If they didn’t recover, one of their relatives would vote for Trump on their behalf.
Stats from a group that is convinced that the ends justify the means, that lying is o.k. because “They Do It Toooooo!!!” and that hypocrisy is an effective political tool belong in a garbage dump.
MAGA’s will still vote for him if he’s in prison. Will probably write in his name if he’s dead.
That’s how far gone these people are.
I wonder how popularity of Trump tattoos have fared? I know back in 2016 there was a shop that offered free Trump tattoos.
I think It’d be great if folks could / would get trump tatoos on their foreheads.
Sorta the equivalent of Jeff Foxworthy’s “Here’s Your Sign”.