I think Heres Your Sign was by Bill Engvall.
I was trying to remember which. On further mental replay and review you are right and I am wrong.
Thank you.
The idea remains applicable to trumpies in either case.
Drove from Chicago up to N Michigan today. MANY Trump flags a-waving along the way. Yuck!
Well, Foxworthy might be more, "If you voted for a Cheeto-faced Shit Gibbon – twice… you might be a Red Neck.
While I can rule out voting for Donald Trump, I can’t rule out voting for a candidate in prison. It depends on what the crime was, whether I think the trial was fair, and whether their opponent is worse, either morally, or in their stances on policy.
Consider Matthew Lyon:
This is an extreme case, but there are others in my link I would vote for.
I have reasons that I expect to vote for Biden. But Trump getting convicted or acquitted won’t change them.
As for voting for deceased candidates, that often makes sense.
What gives me hope is that I firmly believe that the number of voters gained by Donnie is rather small. I can’t imagine someone who voted Hillary in 2016 or Biden in 2020 are going to go MAGA in 2024. He will likely pick up x% of new voters, but Biden will gain something >x% of new voters. I dare say his vote total in 2024 will be less than his 2020 total.
Possible wild card is that it’s virtually certain that Biden will be impeached and tried next summer. Whether this performance art changes votes is unknown. In my opinion it will just be red meat thrown at the rabid base.
The huge thing so many amatuer pundits forget is turnout.
I think we can reliably assign an unchanging persistent presidential preference to nearly 100% of American adults. But of that 100%, only 1/3rd are going to bother to actually vote. Tiny fluctuations in [who bothers] utterly overwhelm massive differences in [who prefers what].
And when you add voting skulduggery, safe districts and safe states, etc., it’s far more true that small fluctuation in turnout in the correct critical districts will wildly affect the final electoral outcome.
It’s easy and lazy to talk about national totals. It’s also largely irrelevant.
The few swing voters I know who voted for Biden thought, in 2020, that he was almost unique among Democrats in being a normal old-fashioned moderate. Now he looks to be a normal Democrat.
Could be. My prediction is that they will both get record numbers of raw votes due to publicity surrounding Trump’s trials driving up turnout.
Are we sure of this? I would have thought that with the GOP House majority so small, they do not have the votes.
In my view, any impeachment that fails in the Senate helps the incumbent. So I hope you are correct.
I don’t forget it. I just think that it is impossible to drive up turnout for one party without doing it for both.
I reached that assessment a long time ago.
That might have been true back when everyone read the same newspapers and watched the same networks’ TV shows.
IMO it’s not even remotely true now.
YMMV of course, but IMO …
One of the key ideas of the RW propaganda machine is to ensure a continuous frothing anger every day of every year in every like-minded citizen. Which drives millions of folks that never used to vote to go to the polls every time from now until the propaganda stops.
There is little corresponding on the LW side. For sure here on the Dope we are sufficiently savvy that we recognize the threat and will bother to vote. Lots of other LWs are not that way.
Said another way, low-information RW voters are stuffed full of facts and passion. Wrong facts and misguided passion, but it’ll still move them to vote as they’ve been told. Low-information LW voters don’t know the nation is facing an existential crisis, and are generally dis-interested in doing anything about it. Such as bothering to vote.
I think the fear of a trump presidency would be the biggest factor driving people to the polls, and that does not bode well for him.
Trump is such an outlier in so many ways that I would now hesitate to underestimate him or say how things bode. Of course, it is also hard to overestimate him, or indeed hold him in much esteem at all.
What’s the difference? Aren’t normal Democrats “old-fashioned moderates”?
The House managers would show up in the Senate and realize, perhaps for the first time, that they had no evidence.
To the badly mis-informed raging rightists, a modern “normal (read as ‘typical’) Democrat” is a raging anti-white anti-American socialist. The “old fashioned moderate Democrats” of the e.g. 1980s & 1990s were wrong on policy, but weren’t evil anti-American bogeymen Socialists.
So in @PhillyGuy’s telling as I interpret him :
Some “centrists” and a few Rs thought Biden was an ordinary 1980s Democrat. And voted for him in 2020 over the proven useless traitor donald. Instead they’ve since learned Biden is actually a raging anti-white socialist hell bent on destroying America. They won’t make that mistake again; in 2024 they will all vote for the useless traitor donald instead. After all, it’s the only way to keep the USA safe.
IMO @PhillyGuy is channeling some of that guff. He himself evidently doesn’t buy the entire Reactionary Wacko Traitor party line, but there’s some echoes of that in some of his positions.
Just overturn Roe v. Wade.
If you want to see how a pro does it, read this by Primary Colors author Joe Klein::
I notice you rely a lot of The Liberal Patriot as a source for information.
Are you aware that it is run by Ruy Texiera, a senior fellow of the American Enterprise Institute, which is an organization founded by and long funded by neoconservatives? You frequently state that you are a “liberal,” yet many of your posts indicate a different perspective than that of a liberal.
I couldn’t figure it out, but now I think I understand.