The swingable centrist not only exists but matters. And turnout is often as much who ends up exciting votes against them as for them.
HRClinton’s turnout error was, it seems to me, less failure in getting key D voters out, but ignoring any appeal to those predisposed against her. Oh she probably wouldn’t have swung many white rural voters her way but her having ignored and even disrespecting and insulting them on occasion helped drive their turnout way up.
Specific to Trump as former president candidate to be: his base will turnout. Given. But will other voters predisposed to vote R come out to vote for him, against Biden (functionally same but still different), or stay home. Of those predisposed to vote D more will turnout to vote against Trump than for Biden.
Unclear to me how much appealing to increase your base’s turnout is offset more by increases of turnout against your appeal?
Trump is still a viable candidate because his supporters live on a different planet. They can’t believe Judge Engoron is treating Trump so unfairly and they think the Trumps’ testimonies in the New York trial are reasonable.
If your idea of enhancing turnout is to give voters in heavily Democratic areas a free uber to get to the polling place, that is certainly going to hurt Trump. I don’t know it it is cost-effective for Democrats, but probably – yes.
Beyond this, it is a fact that some political scientists do think the median voter theorem, associated with the centrist idea you reject, is outdated.
This is for me the central question of the whole of “Politics & Elections,” and I am a median voter guy. However, I’m not going to get into it here.
Also, every international conflict that has happened under Biden’s watch is his fault, because none of it would have happened under a trump admin II (according to trump).
It is somewhat interesting to see MAGA Republicans turn into peaceniks when it comes to Ukraine suddenly start beating the drums of war when it comes to Gaza.
It’s the “Bugs Bunny Strategy”. Trump would spin a road sign around so that Russian troops marching on Ukraine accidentally end up in Gaza and kill all of Hamas.
(That’s probably more clever than anything he’s actually proposed.)
Anyone remember Trump’s words, which are depicted in this Biden campaign ad?
He’s been disparaging service members since his 2016 campaign, and continued after he became President. And yet, millions of people will still vote for him – even servicemembers.
“I’m not vermin. Them others, they’re the vermin, so I want them exterminated. It feels nice to know that your enemies are being–Wait, what’s that truck pulling up to my house? The truck that says ‘EXTERMINATOR’ on the side? And why are they hooking up hoses to my house, and what’s that awful smell? GAHHH!!!”