The Democrats in the House will keep trying to reopen the government and keep forcing McConnell to keep blocking votes in the Senate. It’s a question of how long McConnell can keep doing that before people start to blame the Senate Republicans for the shutdown. Right now, the public perception is that it’s Trump versus the Democrats. But once the public begins pointing the finger at McConnell and the GOP, then we might see McConnell allow voting on it. But then he’d be sending a bill to the president who started this mess in the first place.
Don’t expect Trump to pay attention to polls on this issue. He’s pleasing his fan base, which are the only people who care. If federal workers quit, well, his base won’t care. Remember, these are the people who campaign on making government smaller - not necessarily smaller through financial attribution, but they’ll take what they can get. This could go on until there’s a noticeable economic impact.
Agreed. I don’t see any scenario in which Trump agreeing to any kind of negotiated settlement. It’s going to take a veto proof bill. The question is which Republican senators will go along with a bill negotiated with the Democrats. I’ve already mentioned Murkowski and Collins, so who are the other Republicans that are likely to end up negotiating? McConnell himself as leader would likely have to be part of the group. I think Romney is also likely to join in eventually. Any other suggestions for the 16 others that would still be needed?
I voted less than a week. I think Trump is becoming keenly aware that he has painted himself into a corner and the Dems aren’t backing down. I expect he’ll declare a national emergency by the end of this week and the spending packages will be passed by early next week. Then, he can fight it out in the courts (which his base will love) and ultimately lose. But he can blame the liberal elites for blocking him at every turn and his base will be happy.
This is entirely on Senate Republicans now. They could pass a veto-proof bill today if they wanted (I seem to recall them passing such a bill 100-0 not long ago). There are three branches of the government but dickhead McConnell seems to think there are only two and he has to take orders from the Pres.
it would be awesome if the house and senate passed bills and presented them to Trump. When he asked if his wall was funded, they could just say: Yeah, yeah, sure it is. Go ahead and read the bill if you can. I mean, if you want. Then point to some random words and say: see, it’s right there.
Well, I think we should all look forward to living in a zone (ETA: it wouldn’t qualify as a country anymore) where rich warlords provide such security as they see fit.
I’m not holding my breath for Susan Collins to make a difference. She’s a one-trick pony. If you want someone to clutch their pearls and shed crocodile tears over the latest outrage from the far right, but then go ahead and vote with the far right every single time, then Susan is your woman. If you want someone to actually make a stand, look for someone else.
I actually heard a Republican rep from OK make some sense today. He said to solve it, you need to make it bigger. Make a big deal that includes DACA to make the Dems happy, add in the $5 billion for border security to pacify the bigots, end sequestration to mollify the Dems, give another bone to Republicans, and so on. Let everybody claim some sort of victory.
There’s a deeper significance to this than just the shutdown; this is Trump once again reasserting control over the Republican party. One might assume that the Republicans might be more liberated since the shellacking they took in November, but that didn’t affect the Senate Republicans, which still has a favorable map for the time being.
But the even deeper significance is that by reasserting control, Trump is forcing the party to take even more extreme positions. That’s why people need to be careful about expectations that a 4-5% (or worse) drop in the polls necessarily leads to a Eureka moment among Senate or House Republicans. There are very, very few moderate Republicans left. They might privately disagree with Trump’s tactics and whatever else - they might even despise the man privately. But publicly, they know that most of the remaining Republican party has campaigned on an extreme platform. They know that they and their colleagues were brought to this dance by people who don’t care a damn about the majority of Americans who know that Trump is trying to score a symbolic win and want the government reopened. The Republicans are governing and now even campaigning on pluralities, not majorities. That’s what needs to be remembered in all of this, and that’s why we’re at threat level orange.
People assume that rational people will eventually come to their senses. But was World War I rational? World War II? The Cuban Missile crisis? In the first two examples, we had decades to avert disaster, but didn’t. And we barely averted a much more devastating disaster in 1962. But the assumption that people will behave rationally…is a very dangerous one.
They have a somewhat favorable balance of votes for the time being. The map they’re looking at in 2020 is horrible for them (Reps defending 21 seats with several vulnerable; Dems defending 12 seats with only one (AL) real weak spot).
That said, the key issue is that they’re more afraid of primary challenges from the even-crazier fringe of their party then they are of the general election.
Suppose Doug Jones gets defeated in Alabama, but Susan Collins and Cory Gardner lose to Dems in Maine and Colorado. That gives the Dems 48 seats. Assuming they win the Presidency, they still need two more.
According to 538, every other potential Senate pickup has a partisan lean of at least R+5: NC (R+5.1), IA (R+5.8), AZ (R+9.3), GA (R+11.8), AK (R+14.9), TX (R+16.9), MT (R+17.7). I’m not saying it can’t be done, and the odds are better than last year, but they’re still on the wrong side of 50-50.
I chose a week to a month. In two weeks, air traffic will cease and that will be the signal for the repugs to revolt. Funs fun, but now business suffers and that is insufferable.
Republicans don’t want small government. They want fantasy small government. They want an end to all of the money that goes to other people, but a continuation and expansion of what goes to themselves. A government shutdown forces them to see just how much they’re sponging off the government, too.
I was going to say that two weeks puts us into the second month of the shutdown which should change your answer, but then I realized that the OP didn’t make it clear whether he was asking how long we thought the government shutdown would last, starting now (well, yesterday, since that’s the date of the OP), or how long it would last, total.
Since yesterday was Day 19 of the shutdown, that’s a nontrivial difference.
I was torn between 1week to a month and 1-2 months. But I think there’s a slightly higher likelihood of it ending sooner than a month than of it taking long than a month.
Trump can only keep up the theatrics for so long. His public address shows he’s already getting desperate. The more he tries to appeal the people, the more it’s clear he’ll shut it down.
Someone on Fox will say something that gives him (in his mind) a plausible out. As soon as Fox lets him, he’ll declare victory despite not getting the Wall funding, and give up again, like he did before.
Edit: and, yes, I did assume he meant as of the day of the poll. Otherwise anything less than 2 weeks would not be possible.
