I’m not sure if it is true, but I’ve seen some news articles today talking about how Putin wants to send 150,000 ground troops to Syria.
I believe in the US during our Iraq and Afghanistan wars we were spending something like a million dollars a year per soldier for the invasion. I’m not sure where all that money went, but can Russia support a war thousands of miles from home for less?
What would it cost for Russia to send troops to Syria?
To be fair, Syria isn’t “thousands of miles” from Russia; the distance from the nearest part of Russia to the northern part of Syria (which is where ISIL is concentrated) is only about 500 miles as the crow flies. Distance-from-home-territory-wise, it’d be like the US invading Jamaica.
Plus, “how much would it cost” is somewhat irrelevant. The government would pay for most services in Russian roubles, and can print whatever it needs to. The services - arms, ammunition, missiles, soldiers’ pay, transport, etc. -almost all their expenses would be in Russian currency from Russian suppliers. They even are a large supplier of petroleum products. if they need to, they can print the money needed (at the risk of inflation if it is too much).
The thing to keep in mind is that Russia’s experience in Afghanistan as well as US experience there and Iraq - it’s far easier getting in than out, and even a ruthless force will have trouble subduing the countryside, especially against fanatics. I suspect Putin will try to avoid any imperial entanglements that involve large amounts of feet on the ground; he’ll stick to air strikes and let the Syrians handle ground forces.
The “Humans of New York” website is doing a series on the stories of Syrian refugees. One mentioned how the government soldiers came and burned down his house, then it was featured on the local news as a house burned by terrorists. Another mentioned how someone shot at government troops from a village, so the commander ordered his troops to shoot everyone in that village. The soldier deserted as soon as he safely could. yet another hid from ISIS, so his neighbour was arrested instead and put to work building tunnels around an ISIS airbase - and then was killed during an American bomb attack. We’ve all heard the stories of barrel bombs and chemical weapons.
This is NOT a war that anyone outside with a choice should want to get involved in - and of all the things we may think about Putin, he is not stupid.
I don’t think the cost is irrelevant. Russia has an economy 1/7 the size of the US, so I don’t know how that affects their ability to sustain combat operations in a foreign nations. Plus the Afghan war helped bring down the USSR.
It is my understanding that even China is not really able to sustain combat operations in a foreign nation (this info was 10-15 years ago, so it may not be relevant now).
Could any nation other than the US or Russia put 150,000 troops in a foreign nation that they do not border?
My geography was bad, I guess I was thinking the distance from Syria to Moscow which is a few thousand miles.
Part of me also wondered how much military operations cost other countries. The US might spend a million per soldier per year, but I’m going to assume most other nations spend far less.
In fact, don’t most third world nations probably only spend a few tens of thousand per year per soldier? Considering that many are conscripted I don’t even know if they get a salary. They need machinery, food, shelter, weapons, fuel, etc. but wouldn’t that come down to maybe 10k per year per soldier as a basement price?
Unfortunately, all land, air and sea lines of communication are through NATO controlled or allied territory, so it’s not that simple.
But in the short run, most of the equipment is already existent. The cost would be consumables, salaries, and eventual replacement… ammunition, ordnance, plus minor equipment like small arms and extra “jeeps”. IIRC a lot of the excessive cost of the Iraq adventure was contractors doing the job of the military, badly managed rebuilding contracts, and bribes. I doubt the Russians would spend like that.
Conscripts IIRC reading about, got paid a pittance. But… you get what you pay for. The USSR army, especially in Afghanistan, suffered from the quality of conscripts. Back then, apparently, a lot of the recruits (draftees) were non-Russians with no commitment to the motherland or desire to be there, no cultural reference to identify with the mission. Since 1990 the birth rate in Russia itself has taken a nosedive. I suppose their only redeeming factor would be the lousy economy and high unemployment; but the bad morale and death rate due to incompetent commanders, poor equipment and a suicidal enemy was a problem in the 1980’s. Wait til the rumours start swirling about Sochi-level corruption over military supply contracts to Putin cronies while the cream of Russian youth get slaughtered. Like I said, even Putin is not that stupid… we hope.