It’s being reported that 40,000 Syrians have enlisted to fight for Russia in Ukraine. How do Syria and Russia intend to get these volunteers to the combat zone? That is, what are the logistics of transporting so many people (and possibly their personal equipment, if Russia won’t be equipping them) across such a vast distance? How will this take place and how long will it take?
I assume that transportation by sea is out of the question as Turkey has closed their straits to Russian warships. Transportation by land is also probably not feasible, since the most direct route goes through NATO member Turkey. I suppose that leaves aircraft. How many troops can Russia’s or Syria’s military transport planes take at once, and how many such planes do they have? Is it just a question of them arranging a bunch of round-trip flights, then? What route would those flights take? Would Syria’s neighbouring countries allow Russian or Syrian military aircraft to overfly their territories?
Well, you’ve asked the key question. Russia doesn’t have the transport to move 40k soldiers from Syria in anything like a timely manner, and that’s probably their only real option. I mean, I suppose they could embark them on ships, sail through the Suez, around India, etc, and bring them in at their Vladivostok port, then ship them across via rail to Ukraine. They should get there in about 6 months or so.
I think, basically, that Russia isn’t planning to ship 40k Syrians to the battlefield. They are probably looking at an order of magnitude less (or maybe even 2 orders), and most likely flying them in or basically telling them to make their way there as best they can, 3 meals a day, and a good salary (for Syria) is waiting for them when they show up.
The only way I can see it happening is if they charter commercial flights to somewhere like Armenia where the Russians can transfer them to military planes.
They would need to charter, fully, something like 40-50 flights just to get them all to either of those countries. I don’t know how many commercial flights go to and from Syria daily, but I’m guessing this would be a major challenge.
Russia has, maybe, 4-5k troops, tops, in Syria currently. And, my guess is, they flew most of those in over time…several weeks, if not a couple of months. Some of them came in by ship as well, but I think most were flown in. But flying in a few thousand of your own guys over a couple of weeks is a lot different than trying to fly out 40k, even over those same couple of weeks…if Russia can even wait a couple of weeks or a few months on this. I don’t think they have the logistics transport for something of this magnitude other than, perhaps, sending them on a slow boat to Vladivostok.
Not to mention, trying to do this while in a war against an adversary with a functioning air force.
Any plane that leaves Syria with troops bound for Ukraine becomes a legitimate military target. If they get anywhere close to Ukraine while in the air, it’s a safe bet someone in Ukraine will consider an attempt to shoot them down.
a somewhat peripherical question with regards to bring 100s or 1000 of syrians in …
I assume covid-vac’s are not standard in Syria … so having those fighters at least temporarily around your troops might be another issue nobody in russia is planning for … (just my WAG)
Weren’t the Chechen separatists mainly Islamic? If Russia imports thousands of (presumably Islamic) Syrians, will they live to regret it? (I think the origins of Osama bin Laden and his al-Qaeda group was in the resistance forces trained by the American government in Afghanistan.)
Does Syria really have 40,000 adequately trained soldiers to spare after how many years of civil war? And follow-on question, if someone tells them they just have to surrender to the Ukrainians and they will be passed on to the Polish border where they can walk into the EU to be greeted as refugees - what will those soldiers do? (As Conscientious Objector deserters from the Syrian army they would be legitimate refugees).
The current ruler of Chechnya, propped up by the Russians, is apparently known for his armed forces’ brutal style. But again, how many soldiers can he spare?
How does the ratio of front line troops vs. the people needed to fill the supply and logistics systems compare for Russia itself. I assume over half the force is doing things like manning missile bases and gaurding installations across Russia, manning assorted bases across 10 time zones, running repair facilities and naval bases, supply depots, doing headquarters mundane administrivia like payroll, parts orders, paying suppliers, etc.
I read somewhere the USA ratio is about 10% of the armed forces personnel would be front-line combat troops. How likely is it that Russia, land of bureaucracy, is much different? (How messed up is their administrivia going to be with a huge collection of troops and equipment from all over thrown into a confusing meatgrinder?)
The soldiers might try it, but if recent events with Middle Eastern refugees at the Belarus–Poland border are any indication, they will be forcefully beaten back by the Polish border guards.
