How will the governments of the arab world abandoning the palestinians in the 2024 war in Gaza affect political stability in the middle east

So I’ve seen a lot of tik tok videos about the current war in Gaza and a theme that comes up a lot among Palestinians in gaza being interviewed is ‘where is the arab world’. They keep asking why aren’t the arab countries intervening to protect and help the Palestinians.

The reality is the political leaders of many Arab nations are allied with the US and are part of an unofficial alliance called the Arab-Israeli alliance to help counterbalance Irans influence in the region.

When Iran shot rockets towards Israel a few months ago, the militaries of Jordan and Saudi Arabia helped shoot those missiles down alongside efforts by Israel, France, the UK and the US to shoot those missiles down. So if Palestinians are asking where is the Arab world, for the most part they’re militarily helping protect Israel from Iran.

So Arab nations near Palestine like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, etc are all run by governments which have fairly strong ties to the west and either have peace treaties with Israel or are considering a peace treaty with Israel like Saudi Arabia is currently considering.

So how is this going to affect Arab attitudes in the region? Is this going to cause a massive upswelling of resistance and insurgencies against pro-western Arab countries with military or diplomatic ties to Israel and the west? Are we going to see another Arab spring type movement all over the Arab world where Arab citizens try to overthrow their west friendly and Israel friendly governments in the next few years?

Perhaps they don’t care for Hamas. Or it’s an extension of the indifference they’ve historically shown for Palestinian people (as opposed to political posturing with Palestine as a symbolic concern).

The governments of the Arab world probably don’t care for Hamas or the Palestinian people, but I get the impression the citizens of the Arab world do. Which makes me wonder if this will cause another Arab spring type event in the next few years where people try to overthrow the military dictatorships and monarchies of the middle east and establish Islamist dictatorships instead.

This won’t be a pro-democracy movement, it’ll be more like what happened in Iran in the 1970s when the citizens overthrew the monarchy which had friendly ties to Israel and the west, and then established a far right wing Islamist dictatorship that was very hostile to Israel and the west, and also promoted state sponsored terrorism in the region.

The Palestinians have already tried hard to overthrow Arab countries in, e.g., Jordan; they failed, though (and this is nothing new).

I am sure that they do to the point of hating Israel, and the US and protesting on the Palestinians behalf, but when push comes to shove, are they willing to utterly overturn their lives out of sympathy for another people? Like most people on the planet when faced with similar situations, probably not.

The “Arab world” is really (at least) two Arab worlds: Shiite & Sunni. That is by far the more important alignment and also by far the more important conflict to the “common man in the Arab street” than is the sideshow in Gaza right now.

My recollection of the Arab government’s support of Palestine back in the 1960s and 1970s was that such rhetorical support was a great way to poke Israel in the eye, but otherwise they did not give two shits about the Palestinians as humans or as a political / ethnic entity. Which is why, despite being ethnically Arab and religiously Muslim, the Palestinians have lived in camps in the desert in what’s de facto Israel for coming up on 70 years now, rather than being welcomed in any meaningful numbers to resettle in e.g. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Syria before the current unpleasantness, etc.

IMO the current “common man in the Arab street” sees this as a war between Israel and Iran’s proxy. As long as they themselves are not Iranian, that looks an awful lot like my two enemies beating the shit out of each other; something to be (quietly) applauded, not stopped. They might well have a preference about whether Israel or Iran-by-proxy wins, but meanwhile as long as the meatgrinder is stalemating along, it’s all good.

And like all conflicts in the Middle East, nobody ever “wins” like WW-II was won. Instead the two sides exhaust themselves, settle some sort of truce, be that de facto or a real legal treaty, then go back to hating and rearming without the distraction of fighting at the same time. Then 10-15 years later it boils over into active shooting again.

We’ll see how much the “citizens of the Arab world” push for funding the massive reconstruction Gaza will need after the war, especially if Hamas remains in power or highly influential, which will keep the cycle of destruction and reconstruction going indefinitely.

What voice do the ordinary citizens have in reality?

And why should the Governments back terrorists? Since those same terrorists sometimes turn on each other.

This is nothing new. The surrounding Arab states abandoned the Palestinian cause after they failed to destroy Israel yet again in 1973. Well, the truth is, they never really supported “the Palestinian cause”, or Egypt wouldn’t have occupied Gaza and Jordan wouldn’t have annexed the West Bank. The truth is, these countries only supported Palestinians out of their own self interest. When the surrounding Arab states gave up on Pan Arabism, they no longer needed Israel gone, wnd so stopped materially supporting the Palestinians.

Historically, Egypt tends to cash in on conflict with Gaza. International organizations will supply much of the funding that pays Egyptian construction companies and laborers to rebuild Gaza.

That was Palestinians living under Jordanian rule, not neighboring Arabs overthrowing their own government out of support for the Palestinians which is what @Wesley_Clark seems to suggest. I agree that the latter scenario is even less likely.

I agree the arab world is heavily divided between sunni and shia, but I touched on that a bit in my OP when I talked about the Israeli-Arab alliance. It is a covert alliance between Arab sunni nations, Israel and the west to counteract Shia Iran. As I mentioned, Sunni nations like Jordan and Saudi Arabia were helping to shoot down missiles and drones Iran fired towards Israel during this war.

My concern is will the heavily Sunni populations in nations like Jordan, Egypt, UAE and Saudi Arabia try to overthrow their monarchies and military dictatorships and try to establish Islamist governments in response to feeling these governments are too friendly to the west and to Israel, and that these governments have abandoned Sunni ethnic solidarity and abandoned the Sunni Palestinians

…Huh. I had always assumed that Palestine and Iran were on the same side of the Sunni-Shia divide. So why are they tied so closely together, then?

Nope. Iran seems to employ equal opportunity support for terrorism.

Iran is Shia, but Hamas is Sunni, Hezbollah is Shia and the Houthis are Shia. Iran supports all 3 terrorist groups.

My assumption is that Iran and Hamas have an alliance of convenience against the west and against Israel. Also potentially an alliance against the pro-western sunni government in places like Jordan, but I don’t know.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend the guy I will hold off on fighting with until the first enemy is taken care of

That describes what happened in Iran in the 1970s when the Shah was overthrown.

There was a coalition of students, democracy activists, leftists and far right Islamists. They all came together to overthrow the shah.

Once in power, the far right Islamists like the Ayatollah Khomeini started consolidating their power. After they had consolidated enough power they purged, repressed and executed the democracy activists, students and leftists who helped them come to power because they were against Islam

It’s exactly the same policy the Soviets had during the Cold War, when they support anyone who was in conflict with the U.S., whether or not they were actually Communists. I hear the U.S. had a similar policy.

Historically, Arab governments haven’t given a shit about the Palestinians. To that we could add that, historically, the Palestinians have had an amazing ability to ally themselves with exactly the “wrong” factions, and to piss off those who could perhaps help them.

Jordan kicked out the Palestinians in the early 1970s when the Palestinians who were there tried to overthrow the Jordanian government. Before 1990 there were 400,000 Palestinians living in Kuwait; after Iraq invaded they expressed their support for Saddam Hussein. Postwar Kuwait expelled whatever Palestinians were still living there (about half left during the occupation). Nowadays there are around 40,000 Palestinians in Kuwait, and the Kuwaiti government still hasn’t forgiven them.

Reality is that not only the other Arab countries (or at least their governments) do not give a fig about the Palestinians; the Palestinians themselves also managed to make enemies out of them actively.

Just out of curiosity, what are they expecting these Arab governments to do?

Has any college student suggested that therefore Palestinians should drive the Jordanians from the river to the sea? JAQ.

It wasn’t just in Jordan and Kuwait either. Palestinians caused civil wars in lebanon and caused terrorism in Egypt. Israel has tried to give the west bank back to Jordan and give Gaza back to Egypt and neither wants them. Palestinians bring terrorism and radicalism with them wherever they go and I think the Arab governments understand this.

But I do think the average Arab citizen is likely very pro palestinian and feels their governments with their friendly ties to Israel and the west are sell outs, and I wonder if it’ll lead to insurgencies and civil wars to bring down these governments in the near future.