I agree with most posters, like Sam Stone and pool. There will definitely be less jobs, less businesses/restaurants – well, definitely less cheaper ones, and higher prices and worse service if tipping were somehow outlawed and the minimum wage raised to $15/hr.
Anecdotally, I personally don’t expect a lot of service, but if my time in Europe is of any indication, even the better restaurants will have less than motivated service. Even I had cause to complain at English restaurants. I would also expect no free soda refills, no free drinks (if you get to know your waiter/waitress), and no free appetizers.
Anyway, there would be a large shift of labor to the higher end restaurants because the smaller/less expensive restaurants will not be able to afford the labor or higher costs. Those jobs and those taxable incomes will be lost. In the short term, some of those restaurants will convert to the fast food model, and I suspect some business will try to challenge the law by offering a take out menu and a eat-in menu both with different sets of prices.
Workers at higher end restaurants will have much, much less incentive to be exceptional their job, especially in the short term. Longer term, as the new work ethic becomes adapted, later generations will see even less incentive to provide more effort. Management will have to contend with workers who do the bear minimum because the cost of firing, hiring and just general turnover will make more immediate firings more prohibitive.
To give you some idea, this girl I used to date in college got a job in the summer after graduation at this upscale steakhouse. She was waiting to get an internship to be a social worker (master’s) at this prestigious hospital, but the department was having trouble getting funding for her position (internship leads to full-time position). Anyway, because of unexpected delays, she ended up working there for a year, but cleared $50k for about 40-45 hrs/wk because of tips – her base rate was $2.65/hr (I want to say $3.65, but I’m pretty sure it was the former). This was almost $10k more than her salary as a social worker.
Also, the higher wage rate will most likely have the unintended consequence in the short term to punish those without an education. Unemployment lines will rise and there will be a bigger drain on our social welfare resources. Additionally, less taxable revenue will also mean the double whammy of having less social welfare resources available, unless taxes are also raised (thus completing the trifecta).