Hypothetical: If we lose the war in Iraq?

I don’t think anybody left or right has asked this yet but in all seriousness now that the war has started what happens should the unthinkable happen and the coalition forces are soundly defeated in and around Bagdad?

  1. What would be the exit strategy?
  2. What will be the consequences for the U.S. in the Middle East?
  3. What will be the UN reaction?
  4. At what point do you think that the U.S. would consider unilateral withdrawl?
  5. What would a sound defeat mean in terms of Islamic terrorism?

Not that my personal views one way or the other are relevent to the OP but I support the war and GWB.

I’m opposed to the war, but I don’t think Iraq has a gnat’s chance of winning. Heck, the fact that the U.S. annual military budget is four hundred times more than Iraq’s annual military budget practically guarantees victory.

Yeah, have to agree with rjung. I fear we may lose the peace if we’re not extremely fair and true to our national ideals about it. We might back out of the war (unlikely) depending on world pressures, etc., But I don’t much think we can “lose” the war.

An appropriate exit strategy would be to get all of the troops out of Iraq as quickly as possible. Which means leaving all equipment behind. Since they won, they can clean up the mess, coz we aint be paying.

The US also has a similar chance of proclaiming neutrality in all present and future conflicts and allow the world to fix its own messes from now on.

That kinda illustrates the slim snowballs chance in a summer at an Iraqi desert that the US can lose this war.

Our objective is to is to destroy Saddam’s regime. In less than a week, we have surrounded him. If he uses WMD like nerve gass or biolgicals, Saddam Loses. If he sits and waits, he loses. If he tries to counterattack the forces surrounding Baghdad, he will lose. All Saddam has are dirty tricks, peace protestors and weapons he says he doesnt have. 2 more weeks tops and this is all over except for reconstruction.

and as heartless and as callous as this will sound, the only reason we are taking even that long is that we are trying very, very very hard not to kill innocent civilians. Had this been a “real” war where the US intends to occupy and conquer Iraq, Basra would be experienceing massive MOAB bombardment along with Nasirija. US and British soldiers are literally dying because they cant take a chance in harming an innocent, Something the Iraqi repblican guard has no qualms about doing. The so called “martyrs of Saddam” arent there to give up their lives for Saddam. They are there to put some innocent’s life in between them and the US coalition.

First off I don’t think we will lose this war. I intended this thread to be a mental exercise as to what the alternative to total victory would be. Does that help clarify the OP?

Do you mean “lose the war” as “militarily”? Because in order to support such a hypothetical, we’d have to introduce all sorts of other conditions to make such a scenario feasible. The Turks would need to invade the North, WMD Scuds would need to fall on Israel and cause them to retaliate, the which could draw in Syria and other neighbors, and so on. In those circumstances, the situation would change so radically as to make predictions impossible.

Like rjung, I’m vehemently opposed to this action, but I cannot conceive of any circumstances leading to a U.S. defeat as defined by military terms. The Iraqi regime will be removed and replaced in weeks or months.

(Now, losing the peace, on the other hand, that’s an open question. The example of Cuba shows how a splendid little war can go horribly wrong in the long term.)

In a last gasp, Saddam releases massive amounts of Anthrax on US and British military forces-tens of thousands of innocent Iraqi civilians die…and thousands of US and British soldiers as well. The Republican Guard fights to the death, causing additional thousands of US/British battle deaths. Saddam also orders alliedPOWs to be tortured and beheaded on TV-live! In retaliation, Gen. Franks orders “daisy cutter” bombs to be dropped on Baghdad.
Meanwhile, Islamic radicals in Egypt topple the Mubarek govt., and install a violently anti-US regime. Saudi Arabia (fearing internal revolt) forces the US/British coalition to abandon the war-US bases in Saudi are attacked and bombed by islamic radicals, causing massive loss of life.
President Bush is facing a total loss of confidence-Congress votes to suspend hostilities (Tony Blair’s govt. has since collapsed).
The US forces are now trapped-Turkey offers a way out (on condition that all weapons are left behind). The US and British forces leave, embarking at posts in Turkey.
$100 billion spent, and the Middle East is totally radicalized. Oil soars to $160.00/barrel, the DJA drops 5000 points. USA unemployment rises to 48%.
Yes Virginia, this could go totally wrong!

Saddam’s grip on Bagdad combined with the Iraqis general sense of national violation makes it nearly impossible for US ground troops to enter the city. Reluctantly, more and wider airstrikes are called in and the civilian death toll rises precipitously. As the siege of various Iraqi cities grinds on, critisism from the international community grows as no weapons of mass destruction are produced as proof of Saddam’s violations.

Russia formally proposes a resolution to the UN Security Council demanding an American/British withdrawal from Iraq, which the U.S. and Britain both veto.

A false but convincing report is “leaked” to Mossad about an iminent WOMAD strike from within a facility disguised as a hospital in a Western Iraqi city. The US refuses to bomb a hospital due to the increasing outrage over the humanitarian disaster the war has become. Israel attempts to covertly bomb the facility itself and Saddam’s gestapo makes sure to express mail the video of Israeli planes bombing a hospital full of wounded Iraqis.

The governments of Egypt and Jordan are overthrown in the resulting riots demanding an immediate attack on Israel.

Syrian and Jordanian armored units attack Israeli forces in the Golan Heights. Syrian “peacekeepers” in Lebanon begin a combined artillery and rocket attack on Nahariyya and Haifa.

Egyptian and Libyan tank columns strike in Southern Israel. Saudi Arabia expels all U.S. forces and diplomats. Kuwait, Quatar and Iraq become the only Moslem nations the U.S. can still base troops in and those stationed in Iraq suffer near constant ambushes by Iraqi secret police dressed as civilians.

Israel generally prevails in direct action, but the civilian casualty cost on both sides horrifies the world.

Musharaff is ousted by a popular uprising in Pakistan for his cooperation with the United States. India warily watches its neighbor for any sign of nuclear posturing.

Iran declares war on Israel and demands U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and Kuwait.

A North Korean missile test “accidentally” shoots down a U.S. Spy plane, increasing tension on the Korean Peninsula.

Tony Blair is ousted in England after struggling to maintain support for the ever-widening war. His successor immediately withdraws British troops from Iraq.

A Scud missile fired by Iran lands slightly off it’s American military base target in Kuwait, killing hundreds of civilians. Iranian gunboats attempt to attack U.S. Naval forces in the Gulf with Silkworm missiles, sinking one before being annihilated by the U.S. Navy.

Iranian ballistic missiles, bought from China and North Korea, are fired at Israel. Most are knocked down by Patriot missiles, but several hit their targets.

The Israeli Air Force retaliates against Iran, but finds it cannot effectively fight two wars at once. The U.S. reluctantly begins strike missions against Iranian missile bases.

Pakistan delivers a 100KT nuclear warhead into the Persian Gulf via a ballistic missile, vaporizing a U.S. Carrier Battle Group. India incinerates Karachi with one of its own nuclear weapons.

The U.S. public and government are stunned on a level far surpassing 9/11 by the nuclear strike. Bush promises that the retaliation will be swift and controlled.

The United Nations condemns what’s left of Pakistan.

Iran drops a ballistic missile loaded with anthrax on Tel Aviv.

Israel drops a nuclear warhead on Tehran.

The United Nations condemns Israel, but nobody’s been listening for some time now.

Libyan planes sink several oil tankers bound for the United States.

The U.S. economy goes into a tailspin as Middle Eastern oil deliveries essntially cease.

The U.S. finally manages to kill Saddam Hussein (covered live by Al Jazeera). Bush declares the objective met. Congress demands the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. Forces from Iraq and the Persian Gulf region. An orderly withdrawal is only infrequently hindered by Silkworm and Scud missile attacks.

But at least the Iraqis are liberated now.

That should read “…wounded Iraqis to Al Jazeera and CNN.