Maybe nobody would do anything. China took over Tibet and the world just yawned and looked the other way.
Oh, the irony.
:rolleyes:
China would be making a very serious, if not fatal, mistake to try to overtake another country anytime soon (which, Taiwan is another country since the ROC came into existence prior to the PRC).
I have been to many Taiwanese military installations, have been involved in negotiations between some of the U.S. arms suppliers and Taiwan’s defense forces, and, let me say that their capabilities would be on par with Israel’s.
China’s leaders have to sabre rattle to keep the PLA in line, but, money is the most important thing to any Chinese and they aren’t about to cut off the largest buyer of Chinese goods in the world by pissing off the U.S.
Nowhere in my post did I say anything about what the Mainland Chinese believe will happen. Since I am in Taiwan, I was referring to the debate here.
I was not saying that Taiwan was willingly going to be swallowed into Mainland China, rather than economic integration is inevitable. What will follow closer economic integration is uncertain, but that is the nature of the debate right now in Taiwan.
I wasn’t necessarily directing all my points toward you, colour wolf. (in Japan, are you known as henna gaijin?) But I do see some people touting “economic integration” as if it were some kind of trump card to Taiwan’s evolution as a separate political entity. I’m just saying that those people are engaging in needless fears or wishful thinking, as the case may be.
Just wanted to check in and say:
Welcome, Road Warrior. I heard about your difficulties at That Other Place. Glad to see you hear. You’re better than them.
BTW, you may know me as Samnite.
To all: thank you for your thoughtful replies. As someone who is largely ignorant of Asian politics and motivations, I deeply appreciate all the viewpoints offered here. Please continue, as I am learning more with every post.
Thanks, man. That Other Place is really something. Talk about intolerance.
The China-Taiwan issue is a weird one and when I have more time I’d be happy to talk further on it.
Also, for God’s sake, please forgive me for spelling “here” as “hear.” I’m a little drunk. 
Realpolitic.
I’m suggesting the exact same debate is going on right now in Zhongnanhai (or the political center of China). It is obvious that China has backed off on active threatening postures since 1997 when they did live missle tests. Sure there are military exercises and political rhetoric, but the ability of China to influence Taiwan internally fell pretty flat when Chen Shuibian was elected president.
I’m suggesting that the China leadership believes that the continuing integration of the Taiwanese economy with China will lead to a political settlement, and one where Taiwan will formally become part of the PRC, whatever form that may take.
I don’t have any cites on the population of Taiwanese here in China. I have been told by the “unofficial official” Taiwanese diplomats in Shanghai that there are approximately half a million Taiwanese in the greater Shanghai SuZhe area, at least that many in Fujian and others scattered around China. Taiwanese have virtually fee access to China. In 3 hours in Hong Kong, a Taiwanese (and american) can get a business visa good for multiple entries and up to a 6 month stay for less than USD200.
If you look at the Taiwanese economy, the manufacturing sector ex. semi conductors has largely already migrated to China. China is setting up semi conductor foundries now, and within a decade will be up to speed in the exact same niche now held by S. Korea and Taiwan. TSMC and others have received permission to set up foundries here in China. On the other hand, because Taiwan was such a protected domestic economy, they have not developed a serious service economy. Banking, Insurance are two critical areas that have been protected and are certainly not up to international standards and competition. It is difficult to forecast where growth in the Taiwanese economy will come from, especially if it can not integrate more fully with China.
I know your average Taiwan born Taiwanese has no great ties with China and generally little to zero desire to reunify. I also know that because Taiwan has kept Mainlanders from visiting except for extremely limited recent tourism, that virtually no one in China has any personal experience or understanding of Taiwan. IMHO, the best strategy Taiwan could undertake to try preserve independance, is to allow much more tourism and family visits into Taiwan. I don’t understand how Taiwan ever realistically expects to get it’s point of view across that they are different if they continue these current policies.
For those of you on this board that don’t understand, I would point out that until about 1988 it was illegal for Taiwanese to visit China. China welcomed the visitors but the Taiwan government forbid it, and some pretty harsh penalties we enacted if you were caught. There were no direct phone or fax communications until June 8, 1989 (these were blocked by Taiwan and not China). I’m getting bored typing all this stuff out. Taiwan shares part of the responsibility for cross straights relations and for improving those relations.
shrug If that’s what the cloistered bureaucrats of Beijing choose to tell themselves, I guess it doesn’t do any harm for Taiwan to play along. By the time Beijing realizes that the mainland needs Taiwan at least as much as vice-versa, it will be too late for them to try to unilaterally dictate terms. I can tell you though, that the Taiwanese will not submit to becoming a local government under the auspices of the People’s Republic of China. The two sides might be able to work out some kind of federation or confederacy that flies neither the PRC or ROC flag, but that’s a much different proposition from what you suggest.
You imply that political union is inevitable because “over 5% of the Taiwanese population now live and work in China”, and now you admit that you have no figures at all to back that assertion. Oh, well. To me, it simply doesn’t pass the smell test: in the past fifteen years over one million people have up and moved to the mainland? Extraordinary claims, my boy, extraordinary claims.
How many times can I type “so what”? So Taiwanese can get visas on the same terms as Americans–does that mean that China can look forward to reunificaiton with America?
All true, but as I’ve said before, this has no correlation with movement toward a “political settlement”. You can type 'til you’re tired to repeatedly assert, say, “the sky is blue, therefore Dubya stole the election!”, and when I point out that the two things have nothing to do with one another, I fully expect you to come back and say, “no, man, look, the sky is BLUE! Look at these photographs! Look at this spectrograph! The sky is blue! The sky is blue! I told you that before!” Uh, yeah, I guess so.
shrug Why should the Taiwanese bother? It’s their island, let the Chinese come to terms with it however they want. And anyhow, it’s not as if those visiting mainlanders could go back home and (cough cough) vote on the issue.
I just noticed this from way up earlier in the thread. For those in the bleachers who are trying to get a sense of these funky Asian politics, I’d argue that this is probably one of the last things that the mainland would want to do at this point. Quemoy (otherwise known as Kinmen or Jinmen) is a tiny group of islands literally within sight of the mainland Chinese province of Fujian. By holding onto these otherwise worthless islands, the previous ruling party of Taiwan maintained the claim that it was actually the rightful ruler of all of China.
Fast forward to the present. Right now, Beijing is mortally afeared that Taiwan will start taking concrete steps toward declaring de jure independence and giving a big kiss-off to any political ties to the mainland whatsoever. One of the first such steps could very well be relinquishing control over Quemoy, along with similar rocks like Matsu (also close to Fujian) and Tai-ping Dao (located way down in the South China Sea). This would send a clear message that Taipei intends to stick to the task of governing Taiwan proper as an independent state.
So although Chinese military action to retake Quemoy or Matsu would be inevitably bloody and widely condemned, they would actually be doing Taiwan’s independence agitators a favor. Since the offshore islands are indefensible anyway, why not just let China have them, as we sit here secure in our knowledge that there’s no way in hell they can bridge the additional hundred or so miles required to set foot on our newly-minted Republic of Taiwan? And by the way, thanks to the People’s Liberation Army for signaling its intentions through this time-wasting and strategically useless action; now, we probably have enough time to buckle down and defend ourselves until the US Seventh Fleet comes riding to the rescue.
DR, just curious if you actually live in Taiwan at the present?
As for the number of Taiwanese in China, since you don’t want to take my word for it, let’s start with the People’s Daily: According to the Taiwan Affairs Office of the city government, Taiwanese arrivals amounted to 430,000 in the first 11 months of 2001, up 53 percent year on year, and 3,677 Shanghai residents went to Taiwan on business or personal purposes, the same as a year earlier." you might find the rest of the link interesting http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200201/16/eng20020116_88776.shtml
Statistics from the Shanghai Taiwan Affairs Office (STAO) under the municipal government indicate that roughly 300,000 Taiwanese are now living in the city and neighbouring areas like Kunshan, Suzhou and Wuxi of Jiangsu Province http://www.harvardchina.org/SpecialEvents/11-01-2001.htm
I have no idea who this guy is, Professor Ezra F. Vogel, but you might find the link interesting. Here’s a quote “Finally, Vogel commented on cross-strait relations. Although former President Li Denghui had intended to cultivate Taiwan’s independent identity, current President Chen Shuibian has realized that it is impossible for Taiwan to be formally independent. There are hundreds of thousands of Taiwanese living in the Shanghai-Hangzhou area. Taiwan’s economic ties with the mainland are closer than ever before and they continue to grow. Vogel believes that the basic relationship across the Taiwan Strait may progress and that an agreement that gives the mainland formal sovereignty while giving Taiwan de facto independence is quite possible within the next few years.” http://www.harvardchina.org/SpecialEvents/11-01-2001.htm
More quotes for you “Economic interaction is especially important. Taiwan’s business community has increased its investments on the mainland. There are now approximately 300,000 Taiwanese living in Shanghai. Two-way trade has reached $27 billion, an increase of 29 percent over the same period of 1999. Taiwan’s business community is urging President Chen to ease restrictions on trade and investment in order to stimulate Taiwan’s economy. During the last half of 2000, the integration of information-industry manufacturing between Taiwan and mainland China proceeded apace. A $1.6 billion computer chip plant is being built by Taiwan businessmen in Shanghai. This project has attracted much attention because it is a joint venture involving Jiang Mianheng, the son of China’s president, Jiang Zemin, and Winston Wang, the son of Wang Yingching, head of Taiwan’s powerful Formosa Plastics Group. Finally, Vincent Siew, a former premier of Taiwan and the current vice chairman of the KMT, has advanced a striking new proposal: the establishment of a Cross-Strait Common Market that would lead in time to the political integration of Taiwan and mainland China.” http://www.ncafp.org/record/2001/june01ftr.htm
The Far Eastern Economic Review www.feer.com is an excellent source for both Taiwan and China. They have a subscription database that would give you more information should you wish. I would highly recommend reading FEER to anyone who has an interest in Asia, and their email version is quite good and free.
You’re also missing my point about Taiwanese being able to get Mainland visas. The point is that essentially all Taiwanese have completely free access to the Mainland. Actually looks like I was mistaken, there appear to still be barriers on the Taiwan side against Taiwanese living in China. “Taiwanese who lost their resident status after staying in China for over four years will be allowed to move back to Taiwan and will be given dual citizenship, said the Mainland Affairs Council yesterday.” http://www.taipeitimes.com/news/2001/09/25/story/0000104395
I’d be interested in what yuu think it is that China needs so desperately from Taiwan? If I’m summarizing correctly, you think that Taiwan and China are essentially equals in any kind of political settlement. My question is why do you think this? Taiwanese politics are a mess, the domestic economy is hurting, their factories continue to migrate to China, the balance of military power is tipping towards China, FDI goes to China, etc etc. So, I’m curious as to what foundation you have for thinking the above.
Interesting take on Quemoy. Never heard that one brought forth before. Few countries voluntarily relenquish territory. If Quemoy is given back, what about the Penghu Islands or Orchid Island?
They should bother because that is pretty much the only hope of the Taiwanese for remaining independant. The Taiwanese can keep bribing whatever dippy little banana republic to recognize them as a country. They can try keep up the political influence in the US, but that is fast waning as Mainlanders keep going to US in greater numbers. But at the end of the day, the only country they have to convince is China. IMHO, they are doing a piss poor job of it.
Taiwanese arrivals amounted to 430,000 in the first 11 months of 2001, up 53 percent year on year, and 3,677 Shanghai residents went to Taiwan on business or personal purposes, the same as a year earlier." http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/2...116_88776.shtml
This above trend is not going to foster better inter-relations. I posted this seperately because I believe this issue is critical. Taiwan needs to get off it’s high horse, and start trying to build understanding within China.
Maybe China needs to come up out of the mud instead. Come on, Taiwan is not the one threatening military takeover if their terms are not met. Taiwan does not complain if the Chinese flag is shown. China forces international organizations to call Taiwan “Chinese Taipei.” Of course Taiwan shares some of the blame, but to say that the blame falls equally is unrealistic.
Also, of course China is going to let Taiwanese into the country. Taiwanese people have money, something that can’t be said about the vast majority of Chinese people. I do agree that more Chinese tourists should be let in, if only to help with the economy.
That said, given the spinelessness of the international community WRT China/Taiwan, full economic integration is almost inevitable, and probably soon.
As an aside China Guy do you believe that China has any historical or moral right to claim Taiwan as a province?
Yep, maybe China should come up out of the mud. But the Taiwanese are faced with either waiting for that to happen or to be proactive in trying to determine their own fate.
All I’m saying here is that Taiwan should look at the reality of the situation. State to state relations with China has been a failure. International diplomacy has been slowly chisled away until it’s support from the US (and the old die hard supporters like Jesse Helms are disappearing) with a lot of debate. As far as other countries, the vast majority recognize China and not Taiwan (remember it was Taiwan that started that game out). Taiwan gives a lot of money to countries that do support it. Economically, Taiwanese investment in China seems to be doing well, and it certainly outpaces the Taiwanese investment in the rest of Asia. Taiwan’s closed economy is biting it in the butt as it tries to develop a service economy that is not internationally competitive. Industry is in a rush to China, leaving a manufacturing base that is rapidly being hollowed out. Chip foundries are being built in China, which within 10 years and probably within 5 will directly compete with Taiwan’s industry and have the advantage of a huge domestic market. Militarily, China continues to gain qualitatively and will at some point become a real threat.
One thing Taiwan has never done is foster personal contacts and relations with China. They have never tried to do a PR job to get the Taiwanese view out to the people of China. Maybe, just maybe that would help. I don’t see a lot of other options left for Taiwan.
[hijack]As far as making a case, that deserves another thread. There are a whole host of issues. I lived in Taiwan for many years back in the 1980’s and based on my experience make a case that there is a Taiwanese identity. But it was a Qing Dynasty exile point, a Japanese colony, the native Taiwanese generally have no ties back to the old country, the aboriginal mountain people obviously have no ties to China, the Chinese took control of Taiwan after Japans surrender, Taiwanese uprisings against the Mainlanders (2-28 incident and others), the mass migration of Mainlanders to Taiwan, the Chinese Mainland National legislature, statements by Taiwan from 1949 that it was part of China and would reunite the motherland and all that happy bs from Generallissimo Cash My Check that went through until the 1990’s.
It ain’t black and white, but it isn’t a big stretch to say that China does have some historical and moral rights to Taiwan. Taiwan, until a few short years ago also claimed China (this ignored the views of the majority Taiwanese). But this is another thread. [/hijack]
China doesn’t have any moral claim to Taiwan because the current government in Beijing has never ruled the island. The current government on Taiwan is the only Chinese government in existence who has moral claim to the island.
And, as the Taiwanese industry moves production to the mainland, it still benefits the island as the population moves to the next phase of industrial development: research.
The U.S. has followed that path, Taiwan is starting to, and, in the process, some people will lose jobs. Japan has failed to adapt to this and this is the big reason for Japan’s chronic recession.
Just because there’s no more Jesse Helms, don’t think for a moment the U.S. support for Taiwan has diminished. It won’t.
The only thing that will diminish U.S. support for Taiwan would be the election of a fully democratic government on the mainland. Until that happens, Taiwan is guaranteed U.S. support, economically or militarily.
Do you think that the vast majority of those 430,000 arrivals were perhaps just visiting? The link you’ve provided says further down on the page: "It is estimated that there are 15,000 Taiwanese living in Shanghai as permanent residents, and about 150,000 Taiwanese stay in the city for a short period of time. " So 90% of the 150,000 or 300,000 or (snort) 1 million or however many go back home, right? Seems to me that the Taiwanese regard the PRC as a nice place to visit, but they wouldn’t want to live there.
What is your point? There’s much freer movement between Canada and the US, and those two entities have been separate for three centuries. None of these factoids you dredge up do anything to support your assertion that Taiwan is moving any closer to some sort of political integration. (“The sky is BLUE, man! Aren’t you listening?!?”)
Investment to sustain the mainland’s bread and circuses.
Takes two to tango, bub. Taiwan doesn’t have to talk to the mainland if it doesn’t want to.
Now you’re throwing out wild assertions. Taiwanese politics have been going through a rambunctious phase, but the transition period seems to be settling down now that the (pro-independence) Democratic Progressive Party has proven itself in the recent legislative elections (cough cough). Can you cite anything other than mainland propaganda to demonstrate how the island’s politics are a “mess”? And as compared to what? A mainland government that is so fearful of revolution that it imprisons and tortures peaceful Christians and Falun Gong adherents?
Ah, so you admit that Taiwan is a country. (Hope that doesn’t get you in trouble over there.) Well, as a country, a “province” of China, or a colony of Japan, Penghu and Orchid have always been included as an extension of Taiwan proper.
Oh, I dunno. One hundred and fifty F-16s, one hundred Mirage fighters, Patriot missile batteries, submarines, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, HAWK intercept air defense missiles, M60 tanks, air-to-air missiles, Stinger surface-to-air missiles, Knox class frigates, Cobra helicopters, anti-submarine torpedoes, early warning aircraft, and a host of air defense radar and communication systems might give them a teensy little bit of additional hope. Not to mention not to mention the US Seventh Fleet and about a hundred miles of ocean.
This has been expressed to China on more than one occasion. This link (requires Adobe Acrobat Reader ) details a Senate resolution passed unanimously in 1998 expressing the United States’ continuing support for Taiwan. Granted a resolution is not a law but on the second page of the document it mentions that by law the US is committed to supporting Taiwan militarily (this resolution was in response to some statements made by then President Clinton that seemed to toe the Chinese line regardung Taiwan and pissed off Congress). Of course, what constitutes ‘support’ if shooting starts is anybody’s guess and would rely on too many factors to list here. Still, on the whole the US has been relatively steadfast towards China about leaving Taiwan alone.
This all brings up an interesting point: what exactly makes a country?
Well, Taiwan has its own military, political system, political seat of government which does not owe allegiance to any other entity, airspace, coastal territorial waters, currency, language, customs rules, boundaries, postal service, standards, trade laws, constitution, flag, national anthem, etc.
Do any provinces of China operate like this? Does any state in the United States meet these conditions? Does a province of Canada, or, one of the states or territories of Australia meet these conditions? How about the political subdivisions of Germany?
In fact, when you buy something made on the island, it says “Made in Taiwan.” That to me indicates that it is in fact a country and not part of China.
When Taiwanese travel abroad, they use Taiwanese passports. When you travel to Taiwan a person exchanges dollars into NT$ and it subject to the jurisdiction of Taiwanese law.
For the purposes of trade, the United States can levy sanctions against Taiwan separately.
The only thing different about these 23 million people and the rest of the world is the lack of proper respect one of the world’s richest democracies should command, and, a seat on the U.N.
It’s a tragedy that the rest of us treat a democratic society in such a way.
It’s time to move out of the cold war mentality and give the Taiwanese the recognition they rightly deserve.
Taiwan clearly has de facto but not de jeure independence, which is the whole problem. Historically, it is beyond dispute that Taiwan is the one whose choose not to seek de jeure independance. Sure it was a military dicatorship that pursued this policy, but the transition to Taiwan’s present nascent democracy (remember free national elections were first held less than one year ago) has not freed the current government from honoring any and all sovereign committments.
Someone help me out and provide when it was in the past decade that Taiwan officially stopped claiming to be the legitimate government for all of China or has this ever been formally promulgated. Taiwan could easily have gained de jeure independence certainly through the 1960’s, but choose not to pursue such a path. Shoulda, woulda, coulda…
Taiwan has never held a national referendum of this issue. China of course has wielded it’s “veto” power by threatening military action should such a referendum ever be carried out. Given a lack of membership and China’s position on the security council, it is also very unlikely that an national referendum would be carried out under UN auspices.
This is not to say that Taiwan is precluded from obtaining de jeure independence now. However, at present, China effectively holds economic and military “veto” power over a unilateral move for de jeure recognition. Not saying that China should have this veto power, but the reality of the situation is that China wields veto power. And if you accept that China holds veto power, then Taiwan directly or indirectly is forced to make it’s case to China. I’m not trying to say one side is right and one side wrong, I am saying that this is the situation and it has to be dealt with.
To pick one nit on the above, Taiwan does not have a seperate language. Mandarin is the national language, and Taiwanese/meinanhua (a Fujian dialect) is also widely spoken and could be considered a common language as well. Mandarin is also the official language of China, and meinanhua is spoken in Fujian. I wouldn’t count the aboriginal dialects nor Japanese, as neither are a primary language at present.