First, full disclosure - though my wife and I have been as diligent as possible wrt vaxxes and boosters, and almost as much regarding masks, I’ve been a bit complacent at work, where almost nobody wears masks. Having said that - it seems that every level of authority, administration, government, has tacitly decided that there is no longer any threat.
Well here’s what can happen because of that (again I accept responsibility for my own complacency) - in a working group a couple of days ago, one member tested positive over the weekend. Two other members subsequently tested positive, and I tested positive a day later. My wife just tested positive today. So, without any contact tracing mechanism, we now have to let anyone we’ve associated with for perhaps the last week know that they are now at risk.
I know that at some point that we have to reduce our alertness levels due to whatever level of herd immunity there is and for the sake of practicality. But it pisses me off a lot that there aren’t any PSAs about this anymore or no publicized risk analyses.
We dodged the bullet for three bloody years and now this.
Another factor in the calculation of what level of vigilance is practical, is how serious it is for a person to catch Covid. What is the likelihood of dying, or having complications, or getting “long Covid”, for a person with all available vaccine iterations (which I think is five)? According to CDC, only 16.7% of the total population has all the vaccine + boosters.
The federal public health emergency is due to end in less than a month. CDC is maintaining data tracking and other tools (according to which the trend of infections, hospitalizations and deaths continues to decrease).
The current most-common variant is possibly the most infectious, but also apparently less serious compared to earlier variants. Given these factors, maintaining the levels of government involvement in peoples’ daily lives is not economically practical, and would be perceived (I think) by most as overkill. By all means, anyone who wants to should continue to wear a mask when in the company of other people not your family.
Sorry for you. My wife and I are both covid-free (unless we had it and were asymptomatic.) But I admit I have basically dropped all precautions. Don’t go into huge crowds, ut did take a couple of air trips since last October and didn’t wear masks.
I can only explain that we got fatigued, and decided we didn’t want to mask indefinitely. My PCP requires masks, but I had a colonoscopy the other day and they didn’t. Gonna wear masks for encounters w/ the public at work, tho, as I can’t inquire whether they’ve been vaxxed.
Given the infectiousness and relatively irregularity of any acquired immunogenicity (either through exposure or vaccination), there is no effective “level of herd immunity”. SARS-CoV-2 is definitely still a pandemic threat, although the degree to which is essentially unknown since much of the world isn’t even attempting to make an effort to track exposure, and even in the United States and Europe there is no method for comprehensive collection and reporting of infection statistics. Surveillance programs (established for COVID-19 but also useful for tracking influenza and other pathogens) are being dismantled, and it seems that the world has collectively shrugged and moved on. There is essentially no guidance, and even professional epidemiologists are arguing for eliminating even recommending an isolation protocol post-exposure.
Meanwhile, I have a friend who is both a virologist and epidemiologist (Ph.Ds in both fields, publications in leading ID and virology journals, has worked with the CDC Epidemic Intelligence Service, works at a world-recognized university research laboratory) who is convinced that the SARS-CoV-2 virus has the ability to manifest an order-of-magnitude increase in virulency. But hey, why get worked up over this virus that killed over a million Americans and likely well over ten million worldwide.
…can you point out where the CDC said SARS-CoV-2 is definitely no longer a pandemic threat? Fauci isn’t the CDC, and the quotes from the CDC in the article don’t say anything close to this.
“The United States and the entire world is still experiencing a pandemic, but there are different phases of the pandemic,” he [Dr. Fauci] said. “And what we are in right now is somewhat of a transitional phase, out of the accelerated component into hopefully a more controlled component.”
Mr. Legend is under treatment for cancer; his leukocyte levels fluctuate unpredictably and although he’s fully vaccinated, what might be a mild case of Covid for me or our daughter could very well kill him.
I’m not saying everyone else should be as careful as our family has to be, but every now and then, it would be nice if the media and general public didn’t act like anyone who’s still observing precautions is a paranoid idiot. And it would be really nice if it wasn’t getting harder and harder to get any information about risk levels.
March 17, 2023 – It’s been 3 years since the World Health Organization officially declared the COVID-19 emergency a pandemic. Now, with health systems no longer overwhelmed and more than a year of no surprise variants, many infectious disease experts are declaring a shift in the crisis from pandemic to endemic.
The “accelerated component” is what an epidemic is.
Covid still exists, of course, and will always exist, at least until we develop some completely unanticipated new sci-fi medical technology. But not all diseases that exist are pandemics or epidemics.
“The United States and the entire world is still experiencing a pandemic, but there are different phases of the pandemic,” he [Dr. Fauci] said. “And what we are in right now is somewhat of a transitional phase, out of the accelerated component into hopefully a more controlled component.”
Although there is a danger of complacency, the mere existence of Covid does not justify current social distancing and probably masking in most places by people not at elevated risk.
This might change if emergency rooms and intensive care units again become overwhelmed with serious cases. I hope you are well @velomont and I trust you and yours do not require hospitalization. Get well soon!
I have not seen this. I have seen lots of people (but not most people) wearing masks in places like supermarkets and public transportation, without comment from others. I have seen news stories where the reporter reports that masks are no longer required, but that they are still recommended in some situations.
I understand that you need to be way more careful than most people. No-one knows better than you that you don’t need the approval of other people to continue to observe the precautions that are necessary for you and your family. Wishing the best for all of you.
What counts as “elevated risk”? My (vaccinated) friends in their 20s who caught covid all got better quickly. A lot of my friends in their 50s and 60s were knocked out for months. One woman says she now needs an extra hour of sleep each night. A man said he suffered from profound exhaustion and couldn’t get through a full day of work. That lasted about 3 months. I’m not sure he’s fully recovered. Another woman said she just found it harder to do the complex calculations she’s paid to do, and thought she might have to retire.
None of those people is considered “high risk”. They are all under 65 and none had any pre-existing condition.
The FDA has just announced that the immunocompromised and adults over 65 can and should get another booster shot. I’m over 65 (well over, sigh), it’s been more than four months since my last booster, and I’m going to go for another jab, even though I live in a low-risk area, KN-95 mask in stores and other such venues, and live a semi-hermit life. So far I’ve dodged the COVID bullet and I intend to keep it that way if at all possible.
Thank you for that - greatly appreciated. Fortunately I was given a very good immune system. I felt like crap yesterday, a day after testing positive, but today I just felt the symptoms of an annoying cold to the extent that, were it not for quarantine requirements, I could have gone to the office.
My wife’s a concern, however, as she has a somewhat compromised immune system, though she has been vaxxed and boosted.
I haven’t either but I have heard about it as something that is supposedly common on US commercial flights (I don’t know how apocryphal those stories are, however).
Fair enough. “Elevated risk” can fluctuate, but likely includes the immunocompromised, elderly and those with chronic diseases at a minimum. It presumably applies to care settings with these populations or a high number of cases. But it is not a guarantee younger people cannot become severely ill or have sequelae lasting many months.
Covid is going to be around a long time, possibly. Hopefully it behaves itself.
