I’m asking because my wife and I somewhat disagree. Please provide a percentage likelihood. Here are the facts:
I’m 3x vaxxed, got my booster just about 1 month ago. On Thursday the 30st my son started coughing a little. On Friday he had a likely positive Covid test at home (I think it was positive, but the line was very faint and I wasn’t 100% sure). On Sunday he had a test performed by a testing center that was postive.
On Sunday my wife started coughing. On Monday I started feeling a bit ill. Symptoms have been cough, runny nose, mild aches. Basically normal cold-like symptoms.
Based on all that, my opinion is that it’s extremely likely that I have Covid. 98+%. Because testing resources are under lots of pressure here, I have not gotten a test because I think there are other people who need them more (and why go wait an hour or two to find out something I basically already know). And with a positive case in the house we are already all quarantining, so even a negative test result would not make much difference. Given that the false negative rate on tests is close to what I think my actual chances of not having Covid are, neither result would really tell me much. My wife thinks that it’s likely, but not as likely as I think. Thoughts?
I think given that we’re both triple vaxxed and we’ve certainly caught other non-Covid colds during the last 2 years, we shouldn’t be as certain. I think she thinks 90+%, so it’s not like she’s disagreeing on the “very likely”, just not quite as likely.
I think you’re just quibbling - at 90+ % for both of you, you agree beyond any reasonable doubt. Which is fine, my wife and I like to argue about the little things, because we agree on all the big things
The other reason I’d say its 99+% is that you haven’t mentioned being directly exposed to anyone else that’s sick with something else. In pre-covid days, if my wife (who teaches at the local community college) come home and said something like “just FYI, one of my students had a bad cough and fever today” and then came down with the same symptoms 48 hours later, I’d assume she caught the cold from that student.
Is it certain? No, could be from some pre-symptomatic rando she encountered elsewhere - but if you have one known exposure, and then show the same symptoms, Occam’s razor cuts in that direction.
To be clear, I’m not trying to prove my wife wrong, I just thought that there was enough daylight between those two estimates that maybe I was thinking about it wrong and I should get a test.
I keep our dog’s vaccines current. A few years ago one of our dogs was sick enough to take her to an emergency clinic. She was lethargic, vomiting, passing fetid bloody stool.
Her rectal swab was positive for parvovirus. But she was current for the parvovirus vaccine!!!
The next day she was 100% back to normal, although the disease she had often results in death even with aggressive therapy.
Chances you have COVID-19 given your history? Get an antigen test and we won’t have to guess.
Omicron is incredibly contagious so I’m on board that you’re pretty much guaranteed to have the 'rona. Sorry about that, get better soon. I hear shit tons of pho works wonders to get you on your feet again.
It would satisfy my curiosity, but given the short supply, I think it’s better that I let people who may have some more pressing need to know use the tests.
Or do you mean in general? It does seem like with the rise of Omicron any cold symptoms are more likely to be Covid than anything else.
The only reason I could see to get tested would be if it was required for work or something like. Quarantine the old school 10-14 days (5 days is bullshit and the CDC owes us all an apology) then get tested to confirm negative before returning to work if you can’t just telework.
I understand being curious. But if you find out you do have it, are you going to do anything any differently? Would you try to get treated or just let it run its course?
IDK about the numbers, but I’m with you on your reasoning and plan of action. Given the testing shortages, the exposure risks of going out to get tested, and the possibility of false negatives, I think we should all err on the side of assuming any sniffles etc are probably COVID, and stay home till we’re better, if that’s feasible. If it’s not feasible–if staying home would be a real hardship and you really need to know for sure in order to justify it–then get tested.
In London I know plenty of triple-jabbed people who’ve had covid - so many I’m just expecting it to happen now. None of them have had to go to hospital, but some have been really shittily ill.
Then again there are some nasty colds going around. My daughter’s had a sinus cold for six weeks that isn’t covid. And some people just don’t seem to get it at all, same as with many viruses. She’s been “isolating” mainly because she’s not will enough to go out, but also it would be weird right now to go out somewhere with a visible and obvious rhinovirus.
It’s a shame the tests are so rare in your area - otherwise, it is kinda cool to know if you’ve had it or not.
Not picking on you specifically, but I’m seeing this idea a lot – that people should “test out” of quarantine.
But I have been told multiple times by multiple healthcare professionals that my family may test positive for up to 90 days post infection. So, some people may be able to show a negative test, but lots of people would not, even though they are no longer considered infectious.
I don’t know about the numbers. The positivity rate now where you are would put a lower limit on the likelihood that you have covid. That positivity rate represents two populations mixed together: people getting a test because they feel sick, and everybody else. You’re in the first population, which would obviously have a higher positivity rate. I think it’d be useful if they asked people which population they’re in and reported two separate positivity rates, but have never heard of this being done (and don’t even know if it’s possible).
I’m already feeling fine, so there’s no point in treatment. Even on my worst day I didn’t feel as bad as I felt the day after the booster, so, again, pretty mild.
My wife got a test today since she wants to go see some elderly relatives soon, and she tested positive, so that puts my chances to like 99.5% and her chances of making that trip as planned pretty low.
