The other baseline numbers are shifting under Trump’s feet – that is, Harris’ and Trump’s coalitions are realigning somewhat. In the balance, it seems acceptable for Harris to not get some percentage of Black male voters that were more or less ungettable from jump (e.g. followers of conservative Black YouTubers).
Meanwhile, Trump is losing from another assumed-safe cohort per The New Republic:
Former President Donald Trump has a serious problem with white men: They don’t want to vote for him. At least, not the way they did in 2016.
…
In April, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist survey found that the demographics that historically supported Trump have begun to shift and the groundswell of support from white male voters that Trump had experienced in 2016 was dissipating.
…
Things only got worse from there. According to NPR, between 2020 and 2024, Biden saw a 24-point bump among white men with college degrees, a group that has historically backed Republicans.
Trump has begun to experience a slip in swing states, as well.