I recently retired, with a small pension, and began looking for a job I’d enjoy.
But I’ve been hearing some mighty scary economic forecasts.
How bad does this look for the job market?
Any good news on the economy?
Any notion of how long the problems will last?
Ask five different macroeconomists that question and you’ll get eight different answers. As far as the job market, I’m currently trying to hire for engineering staff and the pickings are slim because it is definitely a seller’s market for skilled technical labor, as it is in many other vocational fields.
The ‘economy’, as based on the stock market, is a basketcase of radical spikes and falls. The indicies for long term economic health such as petroleum and agricultural commodities look pretty dire but much of that is due to market shocks resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine; how that will affect US domestic prices, job market, et cetera long term is at this point an unknown. (There is also the looming student debt crisis combined with the question of who is going to be able to afford the propoerty that downsizing and dying boomers are putting on the already artificially inflated real estate market.).
My worth-what-you-paid-for summary: Who knows?
Stranger
Just remember that at the height of Covid when we were seeing unemployment not seen since the Great Depression, the market went up. The market going down is not necessarily an indicator of massive layoffs, especially when there is such an employee shortage.
Consider how much of the market loss today is from tech stocks, which also was responsible for a lot of the gain 2 years ago.
Don’t panic, especially when every store has help wanted signs up.
If you have a traditional US pension plan, with a defined dollar benefit each month, keep in mind that each period of high inflation permanently takes a dent out of your spending ability. Many people relying on their pensions for retirement spending are going to be blindsided, especially since they probably haven’t experienced a period of lengthy inflation in 4 decades.
“…written in large, friendly letters on the cover.”
Stranger
As an economist by training, if not by trade, I take exception to this statement. There is just no way five economists will have fewer than ten opinions.
Thank you.
Best post here.
Especially because I’m up for two interviews this month.
Deep breathing.
I was assuming that there would be some accidental overlap.
Stranger
In a recession; politicians invoke the name of Keynes as if he were a deity incarnate. In 2008 and 2009, every time a politician went near a TV camera, they would start yammering about “Keynesian stimulus”.
When inflation appears, Keynes disappears down the memory hole. If another “build back better” bill gets passed, it will increase inflation.
Unless Biden completely abandons the environmentalist caucus, he will continue to suppress the fossil fuel industry. This will suppress supply, and raise prices. High energy prices push inflation in the rest of the economy. If that hurts poor people and retirees, Biden and Granholm seem to consider that to be acceptable collateral damage for their green energy fantasies.
In my opinion, we are stuck with inflation at least until January 20, 2025. Unfortunately, the longer an inflationary period lasts, the deeper the recession that will be required to stop it.
You think he’ll reverse course in his second term?
And of course, if we don’t make the effort to significantly reduce the usage of oil and gas, increasing global heating and concomitant extreme weather, megadrought, ocean heating, and sea level rise effects will be the acceptable collateral damage for our scientific obtusity.
Stranger
What is Biden doing that suppresses the fossil fuel industry? He’s doing things to push green energy, but that’s not the same thing. And the fossil fuel companies seem to be on board as they see their supply dwindling.
It was OPEC that increased gas prices, not Biden. They didn’t like how the prices were going so low due the pandemic, so increased prices on oil.
Plus do remember that helping the poor with energy matters little if we don’t deal with the climate change issue. We’re already feeling the effects, with the megadrought in the southwest. It’s not like letting things go the way they are won’t also wind up with the poor being hit the worst.
And it’s not remotely like Biden is alone in this. Basically every country is trying wean off of fossil fuels right now. If not because of the environment, then because green energy is getting so much cheaper. And people are seeing how they need to become energy independent after the Russian war on Ukraine.
There’s a reason why the idea that Biden is actually causing inflation is seen as a Republican talking point with no substance.
The accuracy of grim economic forecasters is, well, grim.
Not that the sunshiny types are any better.
Just go off grid, stock up on survivalist supplies, stuff your mattress with cash (or better yet, gold) and all your worries will be a different shade of paranoid.
No point in stuffing your mattress with cash or gold if you don’t first stuff it with ammunition to defend your valuables. And guns. Lots and lots of guns. Murricah!!!
“Economists have successfully predicted twelve of the last five recessions.”
In all seriousness, we are likely going to have a recession pretty soon. You never know, but all the indicators are there.
I saw on the news last night that there are some 240,000 job openings in MN. I don’t know what the OP is looking for, or where, but one would think there might be something in that large a job market worth looking at.
I retired right before covid hit, and nothing has gone as planned.
I had two international trips planned… both cancelled (one airline said “We can get you there, but we’ve cancelled all flights coming back.” The other said “You’ll have to spend most of your vacation quarantining in a hotel near the airport.”). And the part-time job I’d planned on was in a small store that was like a petri dish of covid cases, so I skipped that.
And my income now is half what my previous salary was… and it’s going down.
ANNNND… I’m ridiculously happy.
Turns out time is more important than money! And I’m fine with missing expensive restaurants and European travel as long as I can bike and walk and sit on my porch with a good used book.
I’m not near pension age, but your view matches mine 100 %.
Isn’t this true in nearly every state (well, not that number, but a lot of openings)? I know around here, we are all having a hard time filling positions. I work for a large organization and we have 450 openings and have had 450 for months (I know some of them have changed). We now have a new employee hiring incentive program to try to fill some of these and it is a fairly large bonus for new employees (even current employees can now get a referral bonus). And these run the gamut: Groundskeepers, facilities maintenance, construction, IT, clerical, finance, management, etc. The company my wife works for is having the same issues.
As somebody who works peripherally in “the fossil fuel industry” (coal, oil, and gas), I can tell you the coal mines (here in Wyoming) are far busier now than they were any time from 2017-2020.
Strangely, this doesn’t stop Local Idiots from parroting the same kind of crap about Biden strangling fossil fuels; they just apparently all believe their experience is the exception.