- It’s a ton of work. 2. She’s getting older. 3. Why not kick back and enjoy the rest of your life?
I won’t be shocked if she runs, but I’m not predicting it.
I have a long-standing dislike and distrust of Hillary Clinton, formed as I watched her push censorship measures years ago. She’s been talking out of the other side of her mouth lately, but I still don’t trust her on First Amendment issues.
That said, I would still cheerfully vote for her over anyone the Republicans will nominate, because the current GOP must not be allowed that much control. For that matter, I would vote for her in the primaries over Biden, because I dislike him more.
Those “certain demographics” are overrepresented in Democratic primaries making her the prohibitive favorite for the nomination. Frankly I’d rather you were right since any meaningful challenge would have to come from the left.
“Doing this” doesn’t entail connecting positively with more voters than anyone else in the country. It only requires being seen as less evil than the Republican nominee in at least about a third of the swing states. Things can change but for Dems the harder part looks to be getting the nomination.
Holy fuck, the only thing Palin and Hillary have in common is two X chromosomes. It isn’t going to be Hillary vs. some ideal candidate you’d rather see come, it’s going to be:
Hillary v. Rand Paul Blowout
Hillary v. Ted Cruz Blowout
Hillary v. Romney Blowout
Hillary v. Rubio Blowout
Hillary v. ??? Blowout
Seriously, the only thing she has to worry about is whether she wants to run. Charisma? She’s got enough. And as one great American said, she’s likeable enough.
I agree with this. As a New Yorker and a gamer, I hated Hilary on two fronts during her Senate days. But she did a good job as Sec of State and I can’t imagine ever voting for a Republican, so she’s got my vote.
At this stage it’s hard to say that any candidate doesn’t have a prayer. Nobody’s really campaigning right now, but every poll shows that if she runs, she’s a huge favorite in the Democratic primaries. If she’s the nominee against a Generic Republican or any Republican you can think of, how low could her odds possibly get? Maybe 40%? The electoral map in 2016 isn’t going to be all that different from the one we had in 2012. A few states could flip the other way, and that means any nominee at least has a shot, even if (like McCain and Romney) the fundamentals are bad for them and they need some significant breaks.
So what if the Pubbies throw a female candidate against Hilary?
I don’t see how that changes things much. They tried running a black guy against Obama in the Illinois Senate race, and that didn’t work out too well. Although there are some non-crazy female Republican politicians, I don’t think any would beat Mrs. Clinton.
That was true in 2008 too, though, and we saw that “inevitability” was all she really had going for her. Once someone punctures that, her support melts away.
Yes, it was. It still applies here.
Yeah, that’s not even close to what happened. Her support didn’t melt away (she kept winning states until the very end), although some people did jump ship to Obama when they realized he had a chance. What happened in 2008 was that she was a major favorite, but there was another very strong candidate in the race. She’d staked out a position as the experienced candidate in a year when people were looking for change. That, combined with the fact that Obama’s people ran a very smart campaign and used the caucus process to their advantage when Clinton’s campaign didn’t think to do so, is why she lost. None of that precludes her from being the overwhelming favorite now. This time she’s in an even stronger position coming off a four-year term in the State Department that made her more popular with everybody, she probably won’t make the same exact mistakes again, and I don’t think there’s another Obama in the field. None of which is to say she’ll definitely win. But saying she doesn’t have a prayer is ridiculous. At this early stage, she’s the person most likely to be the nominee. That means she’s got a pretty good chance to be president.
I’m confused by how you can predict both that Clinton is the favorite and that she has no chance of being nominated. Are you predicting the Democrat party is going to disappear?
There is no “Democrat” party. There is, however, a “Democratic” party.
Took me a minute, too.
We will have had 8 years of Obama and anemic job growth during that whole time. I have no idea if a dem will win in 2016. Part of me hopes a republican will win in 2016 just so people can see that the job growth issue isn’t going to get better with a different party in charge. I don’t know if Obama’s record is enough for the next dem to stand up and say ‘lets have more of this’. His foreign policy is good, but as far as domestic job growth and economics he doesn’t have much to run on (other than the stimulus which stopped the job losses, but that has become very politicized).
So long as Obamacare remains the law of the land I really don’t care if a GOP president wins. By 2017 Obamacare will have had 3 years of enrollment and subsidies, and taking them away will be hard.
If she runs it depends on who runs against and how successfully they market themselves. Both Rand Paul and Paul Ryan have tried hard in past months to straddle the line that gives them the far Right they need to win primaries while trying to appear grown-up and rational. Can either of them pull it off? It really is too early to say they cannot. Predicting a blow-out is way premature.
As an aside, that race gave the world a new concept regarding the scary levels of loopiness that are out there.
No Republican has won a presidential election by a margin of one than more state since 1988. The Democrats won by comfortable margins in 1992, 1996, 2008 and 2012.
I considered voting for Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries but decided on Obama after reading his books. I’d also read both Bill Clinton’s and Hillary Clinton’s books. I voted for Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and I’d certainly vote for Hillary in 2016. She was wrong on the Iraq war, Part 2 and I don’t agree with her on every single issue. However, she and I agree on the bulk of the current issues.
I’m also thinking of the judiciary. The Supreme Court matters and so do the many federal judges. I’d rather have a Democrat appointing those judges than a Republican.
I’d happily vote for Hillary Clinton for pr
Hmm, I suspect that Sarah Palin got to dalej42. 
I’ll probably vote for any reasonable Democratic opponent that opts to run vs Clinton in the primaries, but if she wins the nomination, she’s got my vote in November 2016.
I do think that a Democratic candidate, running as a populist can defeat Clinton. Warren is a possibility, although I don’t think she could assemble a strong enough campaign and fund-raising effort over the next year or so. Hillary always strikes me as insincere, and I think that makes her vulnerable to a candidate that is able to convince voters of his or her passion.
In fact, I’m more than a little bit worried that if Hillary does win the nomination, that she’s vulnerable to a passionate GOP candidate, even though the electoral deck is now stacked against the GOP. But none of the current boobs that are mentioned seem to be threats. Where’s Herman Cain when you need him.
Problem is, Obama spends almost all of his time attacking Republicans, and the Clintons have always worked with Republicans.
Name one bipartisan accomplishment OBama had before reaching the Presidency. Just one. He was a legislator for long enough that surely there’s one in his past.
While in the Senate, Obama worked with his GOP colleagues Lugar and Hagel on WMD control.