I Was Wrong- There's a BIG Downside to Letting Tim Tebow start

The Game Room
181

Time of possession is equally as attributable to the other team’s offense and defense, and your own defense, as it is to your offense. You can’t point to a time of possession change to prove that it’s Tebow’s and not the defense’s influence.

Just for the hell of it, again, this isn’t at all about hating Tebow. What “we” “hate” is this idea that Tebow must not be objectively not-very-good because he’s (which means the Broncos are) winning. Like winning is a skill that you can possess independently of, like, football skills. If your team wins, you’re a winner, which explains how you won – so the more his team wins, the more you have to acknowledge he’s great! That is not how it works, unless you think somebody has been arguing that Tebow is so unilaterally terrible that he’s an anti-winner. But that’s just the same magical thinking we’re complaining about in reverse, and not what we’re saying. Tebow being bad isn’t the punchline, it’s just an important thing to acknowledge about the way people are being irrational.

The Broncos have been A. playing really really good defense, B. running for a lot of yards, and C. taking care of the ball. They’ve also been D. playing some teams that aren’t so great. They’ve E. squeaked out a bunch of wins in very close games (and gotten blown out once). I think everyone is totally on board with the idea that this is a great formula for a winning streak, and Tebow has been a part of it. What some of us have been saying is that there’s a difference between saying A through E happened, so they’re winning, and saying Tebow is the quarterback, so they’re good now, so they’re winning. Tebow can keep being the quarterback, but A-E almost certainly can not keep happening.

People are basically saying that Tebow makes A-E happen. I would like to know who else in history has done that without even being statistically good. A lot of us don’t think he’s sui generis like that. If you get great defense against bad offenses, a low-production run-centric offense that doesn’t turn the ball over is OK, but Tebow is not special in his ability to steward over that kind of offense. The problem is that eventually you have to pass, and the real influence a quarterback has on his team comes in those moments when he has to pass, and it seems like Tebow is bad at that. Their winning without Tebow having to pass to win doesn’t prove that Tebow’s created a magical exemption to this reality. It just means reality hasn’t set in yet. Winning games you can win with a bad quarterback doesn’t prove you don’t have a bad quarterback.

182

We could just use his passer rating of 95.4. Here are his passer ratings in the 7 games where he had pass attempts 102.6, 101.7, 98.1, 95.4, 91.7, 61.3, 56.8.

Look, he doesn’t possess the passing skill set of the prototypical NFL QB. He does, however have 2 tangible skills (or, if you prefer, 1 skill and 1 statistical anomaly) that help to offset this deficiency.

First, he can run. I don’t mean he’s fast and wiry, I mean you can give him the ball 15 times a game, he’ll gain good yardage, and he won’t be nursing a new set of broken bones every week. Most QBs who steward a run-centric offense simply hand it off to someone else every play, Tebow doesn’t, and that is a real skill.

Second, he doesn’t throw interceptions. 6 games, 1 INT. It’s glib to suggest that he doesn’t throw INTs because he doesn’t throw. His interception rate, per attempt, is lower than Aaron Rogers. Per completion it’s the same as Rogers. Somehow, maybe it’s smoke and mirrors, maybe it’s dumb luck, but he’s avoiding interceptions at a rate equal to a guy who is playing at the highest level possible. Tebow is also inaccurate as hell and has a slow as shit delivery, how that translates into few interceptions is beyond me, it’s like a recipe for 3+ picks a game, yet he is managing to do it.

When asked to throw a lot and be a pocket passer, something outside of his skill set, he sucks. When he is asked to throw fewer times, gets to run the ball, and work within his skill set, his passer rating is respectable.

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I’m not a QB rating hater by any means - there are plenty who hate the formula, but I like it over the course of a season. But I don’t think it’s all that meaningful a tool to suggest that someone’s 102.6 rating after throwing all of 8 passes (2 completions for 69 yards) is a very useful indication of how he did as a passer. It’s the very definition of small sample size.

Absolutely. He has excellent on-field awareness, especially when coverage is tight. Tebow doesn’t throw INTs because his first instinct in such situations is to scramble and make yardage with his legs. To be successful, he’s going to need to make that his 2nd or 3rd instinct. That’s not a knock on him - it’s good to not take risks when you have a throwing motion like he does, and he’s more than capable when running the ball.

184

I was the one who started this thread, and yes, that sums up my basic point nicely.

Does Tim Tebow receive an unfair, undeserved amount of abuse? Absolutely. Does he also receive a lot of undeserved adulation? Definitely.

Feel free to search the SDMB for everything I’ve ever said about Tebow. I may have been right, I may have been wrong, but I think I can truthfully say I haven’t been a hater OR a huge fan. Superficially, I like Tebow, who was an exciting college player and who SEEMS like a great guy. If I’ve doubted his ability to succeed as an NFL quarterback, it’s NOT because of his public displays of faith- it’s because he’s shown NO ability to make the kind of throws NFL quarterbacks HAVE to make.

At the start of this season, my take on the Broncos was this: “Kyle Orton is a solid pro quarterback and Willis McGahee is a great running back. The Broncos should have a decent offense. I’m a long-time Giants fan, so I know and respect John Fox tremendously as a defensive strategist. Assuming Fox can improve that porous Denver defense (and I believe he will), there’s no reason the Broncos couldn’t be a contender in a weak division like the AFC West.”

Well, the Broncos got off to a horrible start. At that point, John Fox decided “Well, this season is pretty much over already, so we may as well give Tebow a chance to start. I don’t think he’ll succeed, in fact, I think he’ll probably fall on his face, but what the heck? We’re not going anywhere this season, so let’s put him in and see what happens? If he stinks (as I expect he will), at least the fans will see for themselves that Tebow isn’t the answer, and we can build for the future with a REAL quarterback.”

At the time, I couldn’t see the harm in that approach. But as it turns out, there WAS a lot of potential harm in that approach. By almost any standard, Tebow has been a terrible quarterback. He CAN’T make routine throws. He doesn’t just miss open receivers, he misses them badly!

If the Broncos had LOST a series of close 13-10 and 16-13 games with Tebow as quarterback, even his biggest boosters would have gotten the message: Tim can’t do the job at quarterback. Instead, the Bronco defense has greatly improved under John Fox (as I always figured it would), and the team has managed to win several close games in its weak division (just as I thought they could). It turns out that John Fox wrote off the season way too soon. I believe that, with their resurgent defense, the Broncos would have won all these games with Kyle Orton at quarterback, and probably would have won them more comfortably.

But now Fox is in a bind. How can he NOW tell the fans “Tebow stinks, and I’m not going to start him” when the fans are all saying, “He’s WINNING, and that’s all that matters”?

I don’t believe Tebow is the answer in the long run (even though he may very well take the Broncos to the playoffs), but John Fox is now pretty much stuck with him. He’s got to be kicking himself, thinking “If I’d just given Orton a few more weeks, we’d be sitting pretty now.”

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There’s no particular reason for Fox to bench him, particularly not when the backup is Brady Quinn. Tebow is not playing QB well, but Orton wasn’t either and there’s no reason to think they would do better if they could put Orton back. They were losing before, they’re winning now, and they’re probably not going anywhere this season regardless. It’s for Elway to comment on the team’s strategy in the long term, and he’s been clear on the fact that Tebow isn’t playing well enough to be the starter next year. If anything he’s been too firm about that and now has to do a little more to be supportive.

Meanwhile he actually did play better yesterday, but the overall pattern is the same: the defense plays great, the offense doesn’t turn the ball over, gets a bunch of rushing yards, and is barely good enough to beat some other teams that aren’t very good.

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“How much does the price of gas have to go up before you admit that he might not be as terrible as you thought?”

187

Wasn’t till yesterday that I realized how awful his throwing motion is. Even for a 10 yard pass it looks like he’s winding up to heave the ball sixty yards downfield. Compare his release to a QB like Rodgers.

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Nice try. Can you name another major change the Broncos have made in their strategy other than starting Tebow, which could account for them going from a 20% win rate to an 80% one?

189

That’s been mentioned about 20 times in this thread. Your inability to retain the memory of that isn’t our fault.

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Just sayin’, there’s a new coach whose influence is likely starting to be felt. I think it’s easy to forget the previous coach had limited practical experience, none of which was NFL, and that his first act was to fire/chase off half the team. His next act was to put together the worst losing season of the team’s history. For a finale he humiliated the team with the whole spygate scandal. Orton, I contend, was part of that baggage and may have contributed a malaise to the rest of the team. I think a lot of the credit has to go to Fox. Tebow’s a useful enigma in the whole mix, but he’s not doing it all by himself.

191

Yawn, that was hard.

192

No kidding. Defensive stats over the last 5 games have been outstanding. Dumervil and Miller have been beasts.

Also, look at the Jets game. It wasn’t Tebow intercepting Mark Sanchez for a pick-6.

At this point, he’s looking about as good as Matt Moore for the Dolphins. No, that’s not a knock on Tebow. Right now, he’s a solid player but not exactly a game changer. Though, I do look forward to the day when he can play great football for 60 minutes, rather than the last 5 minutes of the game.

The Broncos are using a tried and true strategy: ground and pound. They’ve got a great defense and can run the ball well. Can that strategy win championships? In the modern era, the answer appears to be no. The '09 Jets almost made it with the same thing: stingy defense, good ground game, and so-so QB. The '11 Broncos could prove me wrong, though.

On the plus side, they’re in the AFC West, which means they don’t need a great aerial showcase to contend for the playoffs.

193

I’m sorry but your answer is incorrect. Fox hates Tebow. Fox would love to start anybody BUT Tebow. He did not want this ground-and-pound offense. But Orton blew and the fans were-a-clamoring so he put Tebow in, hoping he would fail. (The PTI guys on ESPN have discussed this at length)

Of course, Tebow isn’t doing it all by himself. The only guy that can do it all by himself is Peyton Manning. Maybe Rogers. The defense is doing a really good job. The offensive line seems to be blocking a lot better than earlier in the year. Special teams seem better.

But Tebow seems to have a positive influence on the team. Interviews seem to confirm this. Of course, I guess you could argue ‘What else are they gonna say?!?’

194

If only there were some alternative interpretation of John Fox being ambivalent about Tebow as a quarterback besides personal animosity and “wanting” him to fail.

If only someone, somewhere in the world, could offer up some possible explanation for a guy whose literal livelihood is making sure his football team isn’t a massive disappointing failure, and who doesn’t think Tebow adds a tremendous amount of value at quarterback, other than the conclusion that he just hates him.

Fox deserves more credit than anyone for putting Tebow in positions where the team could succeed with him. He should get more credit for being honest about it and not pretending it’s magic, rather than a bunch of people busting their asses around Tebow, and Tebow doing a good job with the limited range of outcomes he’s in charge of. Instead, he gets accused of hating Tebow and trying to hold back his rise to transcendence.

195

I don’t usually like to continue hijacks, but I also mentioned Palko earlier in this thread, and last night he demonstrated again how bad he was. At one point on three consecutive offensive plays for KC he had a lost fumble, a terribly underthrown pick (“by about 15 yards” Al Michaels estimated), and a second pick which defied all logic, physics, and time and space. As Cris Collinsworth said about the second pick “it’s like he threw a hard slider”–the ball turned at a sharp angle at midair, almost as if it had hit a flying bird, and fell right into the hands of a Steelers defender. He had to catch the ball more to protect himself than to make the pick.

The sad part for KC (not so much for me) was that their defense last night would have been good enough to win 99% of the time. That defensive performance made Denver’s streak lately look like an arena football team. Palko lost that game for them, period. All I can say is, everybody exoricating Tebow for mediocre performances should take a look at Palko and the Chiefs last night to see what the alternative is. Denver’s been winning with an awesome defense and a mediocre QB; KC lost last night with an even more awesome defense and a QB from Hell.

All I can think is that the salary cap has prevented teams from carrying decent backup QBs. Yes, some teams have been truly snakebit, like Houston having a former starter in Matt Leinert go down with a broken collarbone, leaving Some Guy and a backup tight end as numbers 1 and 2 in the depth chart. But seriously, Palko as a #2 to Matt Cassell? Allan Berra once said that anyone who can throw a ball ten yards in a straight line has a chance in the NFL, but Palko can’t even do that.

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That’s the craziest thing about it though. Before Tebow, their defense was not good. And by not good, I mean their defense was unbelievably, jaw-droppingly bad.

Worst defense in the NFL in 2010. Most points given up of any team. Most yards allowed of any team.

Second worst defense in the NFL in 2011 without Tebow. Only the Colts, who are trying to lose, are worse.

It is quite a coincidence that they went from having the worst defense in the entire NFL for a season and 5 games, and then like a bomb exploding the exact instant that Tebow became the starter their defense went from worst to first. And yet, that appears to be what happened.

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No, it’s not. Please read the thread.

198

cough 2000 Ravens cough 1985 Bears cough (Or are those not “the modern era” in your mind?)

199

I hate to do the same thing as another poster, but:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elvis_Dumervil

He missed a couple games early due to injury. Actually, most of September was bad for Denver’s defense, injury-wise. Champ Bailey also missed a few games, one of their tackles was out, and a couple other players were out.

They came back from injury in the back half of October, and are currently riding a pretty good win streak. They drafted well, and John Fox was always known as a good defensive coach. There’s not much more to it than that.

Maybe that means Tebow actually is blessed by the football gods. At the very least, it’s a happy coincidence that the D finally got healthy when Orton got replaced.

200

You mean teams that had, respectively, 2800 and 3000 yards in the air and both with more passing than rushing yards? Um, ok.

If you think Tebow is even a 2000 yard QB and will get more pass than rush yards, I’ll bow to that wisdom.