In football, yes it is, because it’s never only one thing that changes. Your argument is especially silly when you have to argue that it’s the QB making the defense better, rather than the defense making the defense better.
As I said upthread:
"I understand that you’re stuck. The fact that the defense has become the #2 scoring defense since their bye (while the offense is 24th) makes it really tough to give credit for the wins to Tebow. Or the fact that if the defense was playing just average for the NFL, the Broncos with Tebow would be 1-5. So you have to try this convoluted argument that somehow he’s the reason the defense is playing better. Not injuries, not finally gelling under a new coach and new defensive coordinator. Not the rookie’s improvement, playing against bad teams, or iffy QB play by the opponents. Because it’s the defense that is winning the games, you have to create this fantasy where the QB is the biggest reason the defense plays better. That kind of thinking is really that hard to believe. No matter how many times you say it.
I asked OMG, I’ll ask you, do you have any interest in a wager on Tebow’s long term success? Or his success if the defense doesn’t play well?"
So they didn’t predict the defense would get better when the defense healed (I like how you throw this completely unsupportable claim out there, btw), so it can’t be because of that?
Nobody predicted the defense would get better under Tebow either, so I guess it can’t be because of him.
Only one thing changed? Really? You’re going with Tebow being the only difference? Wow.
One thing? Well, Hamlet and Marley already brought up that it’s not “one thing” that changes and that this is post hoc reasoning. I’ll just add a link to myself from earlier in the thread.
Applying scrutiny and logic isn’t the same as coming up with a bunch of bullshit to justify your predetermined position. And I’ve certainly applied a critical eye to their performance. They say Tebow’s fired them up, and there are things in Tebow’s performance, most importantly not turning the ball over. That’s a lot more believable then they got better suddenly because players came back from injury three weeks prior.
I’ll put a wager down that Tebow is a competent starting QB in year 7 of his career.
[ul]
[li]2009 - Kyle Orton at quarterback, healthy Dumervil, #7 defense in the NFL. Tebow a twinkle in Josh McDaniel’s eye.[/li][li]2010 - Orton and Tebow at quarterback, no Dumervil, worst defense in the NFL. Defensive yards allowed in games subject to Tebow-quarterback-inspiration aura: 502, 401, 447. Average yards allowed under Orton’s inferior psycho-defensive leadership: 377.[/li][li]2011 pre-bye week - Orton at quarterback. Dumervil out. Terrible defense.[/li][li]2011 post-bye week - Tebow at quarterback. Dumervil back. Great defense.[/li][/ul]
So, when one thing changes, and the result changes, we attribute the result to the thing that changed, right?
We could have a decent test this weekend. Von Miller had thumb surgery yesterday and may be out for Sunday. Remove one key defender for the game and see what happens.
I agree. Unfortunately, “he fired them up” is bullshit, “he just wins” is bullshit, and giving the QB credit for an outsize impact on the defense is bullshit. Everybody has already agreed that cutting down on turnovers is good for the defense as well as the offense. Pointing out that the defense got healthy and started playing MUCH better and the schedule got easier isn’t bullshit - it’s factual and it has a much more direct relationship on the team’s performance than the QB’s effect on the defense.
There’s apparently debate about how much of an impact getting your starting defense has on a team.
I give more credit than some to defense because I’ve seen exactly how much it affects Houston. They’ve perennially had a good offense. Now they’ve got a good defense, they’re in position to make a playoff run, even with a 3rd string rookie QB.
But it’s also the case that Denver’s played an easier schedule these last 5 games. Not necessarily easy but easier, unless you think the Lions, Jets, and Chiefs are respectively and collectively better than the Packers, Bengals, and Titans.
5 years from now? Seems a long time to wait, but you name the stakes and I’m there. I think top 15 is a good measure of “competent”, so if in 2016, he’s a top 15 QB, you win, if not, I win.
Anything closer in time? Maybe even this year. I’d be willing to wager that if the Broncos defense gives up more than 21 points (the #16 defense in the NFL) , the Tebow led Broncos won’t win. We can make it a per game bet, so that if the Broncos win and the defense gives up 21 points or less, it’s a wash; if the Broncos defense (no pick 6’s, fumble returns or special teams TD’s) give up more than 21 and the Broncos win with Tebow, you win; and if the Broncos defense gives up more than 21 and the Broncos lose with Tebow, I win. Say $10 bucks a game that gets decided by the bet.
This has been addressed. Players don’t come back at 100%. Injuries aren’t on/off and heal instantly. Some players don’t really get back into their grooves until the next season.
That, and Week 4 was against Green Bay. Are you really going to claim ANY defense is going to be sufficient to hold the Packers under 15 pts this year? Or that Tebow would somehow have “fired up” the defense enough to stop that juggernaut?
I’m confused on the timeline. Do we measure it in 2016, or if he ever breaks the top 20, then you win. I don’t think cracking the top 20 counts as “competent”. That would include such QB luminaries as Matt Moore and Mark Sanchez (who I see as Tebowesque for winning due to defense and not his own skills). How about on Dec. 1, 2016, if Tebow is in the top 20 of QB’s, you win, if not, I win. It’ll be a wash if he has a career ending injury.
I’d rather have a time range than a specific date. For all I know he will be injured Dec 1 2016 or run out in favor of a high draft pick. I’d say if he is in the top 20 QB rating (qualified throwers only according to NFL) for a 12+ game season, then he’s become a competent QB. So any time between now and year 7 that he does that, then I win the bet.
Why don’t we make it an even $40 since that what our per game bets come out to.