I Was Wrong- There's a BIG Downside to Letting Tim Tebow start

The Game Room
301

I look at the garbage out there that is in the top 20 (for example, in 2010, that would include John Kitna, David Garrard, and, just for you, Kyle Orton). I’m not sure that being in the top 20 in QB rankings is a good definition of competent. Hell, I think Tebow is incompetent, yet his passer rating this year, if he qualified, would put him at 21.

I think I left out on contingency in the wager. If the Broncos lose and the defense gives up less than 21 points, that should be a win for me too. Is that good?

302

No, that’s ridiculous. Dumervil didn’t have any sacks in his two games before the switch because he wasn’t fired up. He didn’t have any sacks in his first two games after the switch either, but that’s because he didn’t believe in Tebow yet and wasn’t very fired up. He has 5.5 sacks the last four games because he is now sufficiently fired up. Bailey has intercepted four passes in the six Tebow starts after picking off one in his two Orton-started games because iron sharpens iron. The change has nothing to do with their health. Miller had 20 tackles in the five Orton games and 38 in the six Tebow games not because he’s an improving rookie but because he is inspired.

The Broncos’ opponents in the Orton games were a combined 9-2 (.818) when they played Denver and through 12 weeks those teams have a winning percentage of .636. (The worst team they played with Orton as the starter was San Diego, and when they played San Diego, the Chargers were 4-1). Conclusion: the Broncos didn’t feel anything for Orton. The teams they’ve played in the Tebow games had a combined record of 24-24 (.500) going into their games against Denver and an overall winning percentage of .470 (they beat San Diego again, extending the Chargers’ losing streak to six). From this we can see that the team wants to win for Tebow.

Tebow, who does not play defense, deserves much of the credit for the improvement of the defense. The defense, which is holding opposing offenses to so few points that the Broncos are 5-1 in their last six games even though the Tebow-led offense is below average, is benefiting a great deal from Tebow, you see. However please remember that Tebow is helping the defense. It is not the other way around, with the defense making Tebow look much better.

Bow before how much sense this makes.

303

You might want to read what I said again as that’s not what was argued. What I said was that the defense plays better when the offense does more running than passing, simply because running plays-- even if they’re stopped for no gain-- use up more real football time. I.e., three straight incompletions will use up, maybe, 30 seconds of game clock, while three straight runs for no yards will use up two and a half minutes of gameclock. Running the ball shortens the game and gives the defense more time to rest. That’s simple football 101.

I can distinguish just fine. Can you? When the defense is on the field less and is better rested, they will play better.

I’m a Miami Dolphins fan. The Dolphins play the Pats twice a year, which means I (unfortunately) get to watch the Pats air it out over and over and over again, even when they’re up by 20+ points.

Link

New England had 48 pass attempts and 22 runs, which works out to running the ball over 68% of the time. I could find more if you wish. As it stands, you’re welcome.

304

Is that Top 20 at any point in the season, or is it evaluated at the end of each year?

305

Is this the new math that I’ve been hearing about?

306

OINK!

Actually, the biggest reason I’ve always heard about the option not working in the pros is that the speed of the defense, especially the linebackers, will shut it down. The QB can’t turn the corner, thereby making the play optionless. Tebow seems to be able to get to the corner to keep the option play viable. As long as he can do this, he will have an advantage over the defense. Once the defenses figure out how to stop him, the Denver option play will be much less successful.

Have you ever played organized sports? If so, you would know that this isn’t bullshit. One thing that IS true is that over the long haul, the momentum is not sustainable. But the lift you get over the short term is real, and can carry a team for a while. I don’t believe that Denver will be able to play this way and be successful over an extended period. But if Tebow starts completing passes, not just short swing passes, screens or 5 yard outs, but actually downfield, this could get interesting.

307

So the broncos gain the momentum by sucking for three quarters each game?

308

No. Here’s what I’ve seen (and I’ve only seen two of Tebow’s games, so admittedly, my sample set is small.)

To say that the Broncos offense looks horrid for 3+ quarters is undeniable. Take the Jets game. He looked incompetent, the entire offense looked incompetent, and yet, when they are down to their last drive, he pulls off a 95 yard miracle.

This is the type of thing that the offense feeds off of, since they start to believe that Tebow will be able to drive the team down the field when it matters. The defense also feeds off of this, because they start to believe that if they can just keep it close (down by one score or less), Tebow will give them a shot to win at the end.

Does anyone remember the Bronco 2008 season, when Josh McDaniels was head coach? There was no one that thought the Broncos would be good. McDaniels got rid of his best receiver and QB. But Orton throws a pass that’s tipped into the hands of one of his receivers, who takes the ball for a miracle win. And the Broncos string together 6 wins to start the season. No one saw that coming. But momentum can carry a long way. Not forever, though. They started 6-0 and finished 8-8. The 6-0 start was followed by a bye week… so one could argue that they lost the momentum that they carried from that first game of the year, and the real Broncos came out to play after the bye week.

Since the Broncos don’t have a bye week coming up, something else will have to stop the momentum. I don’t know what that will be or when, but it will happen. Does anyone actually believe the Broncos, even if they make the playoffs, will continue this run against quality competition? Especially on the road?

If you look at their remaining schedule, they have the Vikings this week in Minnesota. This is a very winnable game. They not only face the brilliant Chris Ponder at QB, but according to the injury report, Adrian Peterson is out. The Denver defense will have another opportunity to shine. They then play Chicago at home, without their starting QB Jay Cutler… another opportunity for the defense to play well. They then get the one team that barring injury between now and then will have the best shot at beating them. The Patriots go to Denver, and even though Denver is a very tough home team, if Brady, Welker, et.al. are healthy, I suspect that this is where the Tebow streak ends, and the momentum balloon will deflate a bit.

I don’t see them beating the Patriots, Ravens, Steelers, Texans, Bengals, or even the Raiders on the road. But that’s just me.

The Broncos are capable of losing this week against the Vikings or next week against the Bears, but they are getting a LOT of breaks along the way to make things a bit easier. Facing backup QB’s are a lot easier than facing the starter. I’m not sure what Ponder’s status is, but without Peterson, I think it will be a tough game for the Vikings to win.

I will be curious to see how the Broncos react as a team after they lose, especially if they get beaten badly by a team that converts a number of Tebow mistakes into touchdowns. I guess the only thing we can do at this point is wait, since nothing is guaranteed.

309

I realize you were just making a point, but throwing the ball 2/3 of the time when you have a lead does happen (trust me, I’m an Eagles fan). If you count sacks and scrambles as designed pass plays, the 2011 leaguewide average is about 60% pass. Finding a team above that in a close win is pretty easy.

e.g.,

310

Yes, I have. And yes, it’s still bullshit. And suggesting that people playing professional organized sports are motivated more by a shitty QB not “rewarding” their play and less by a potential contract is absurd.

311

There’s no “when it matters” because points always matter. Come on now. The guy’s attitude probably doesn’t hurt, but if the Broncos were scoring more often, they wouldn’t need big drives in OT and the end of the fourth quarter. That’s just obvious. Like I said earlier, Tebow apparently gave a great inspirational speech Saturday, and the team responded by falling down 10-0, getting shut out until 0:55 left in the first half, and trailing for almost literally the entire game. They won, and the fact that he doesn’t turn the ball over (and also had a better passing game) was part of that. But it’s not because they believed in themselves. The offense wouldn’t be in position to pull off late-game comebacks if the defense was not holding the opposing teams to far-below-average performances.

312

Wait, you mean the defense only gets to rest while the game clock is running? Is the defense running laps or something when the offense is huddling up after a game-clock-stopping incompletion?

Or are you saying that pass plays take significantly less actual (not game) time? Is there any evidence of that?
(I mean, sure a quick slant that’s thrown into the ground takes probably only a couple seconds between the snap and the whistle, whereas a slow-developing sweep might take as much as eight seconds or so, but the six seconds difference is hardly significant when you add it to the 25 real-time seconds between plays in either case, right? Especially when it’s averaged with the up-the-middle handoffs that take little actual time, and the scrambles/sacks/runs-after-catches that take up more)

I think the only thing that lets the defense rest is getting lots of first downs. And the defense is probably OK with their offense having a quick score that doesn’t let them rest but puts them ahead, so really it comes down to helping the defense rest by not punting, whether you get your first down or score by running or passing doesn’t matter.

313

If those guys could run like Tebow and not throw interceptions, they would be competent QBs.

So its:

Broncos give up more than 21 and win - I win
Broncos give up less than 21 and lose - I lose
Broncos give up more than 21 and lose - I lose
Broncos give up less than 21 and win - A push

Not sure I like that. Based on random chance, that’s 25% wins, 50% losses, and 25% pushes.

314

And if Tebow could throw like them, he’d be competent. It seems that, if Kyle Orton was a top 20 QB last year, but he’s incompetent enough that Tebow should be starting, then the top 20 really isn’t a good measure of competence. Make it top 15, and we can have a deal.

It’s simply a matter of removing Broncos wins that are due to defense (like I think their wins so far are) and those that are due to Tebow playing well. The 21 points (it’s actually 21.9) is the 16th rated team’s average points they give up, so my thinking was that if the defense doesn’t play great and just plays average, the Broncos will lose because Tebow can’t keep up. The Bronocs have already proven that they can win if their defense plays great. I just don’t think they can if their defense plays just average.

If you can think of a better way to take the defense out of the equation, I’m open to suggestions. I just don’t want to lose a bet when the Broncos D plays great again and they get a win despite of Tebow instead of because of him.

315

That’s a shift of the goal posts. If Tebow is a top 15 throwing QB and runs the way he does, he’s a lot more than just a competent QB.

We can make the Broncos give up more than 21 and lose a push.

316

Right now, if he qualified, he’d be the 21st ranked QB. I think his performance so far is incompetent. I’m having trouble agreeing that if he improves just slightly in passing, that that would suddenly make him competent. McNabb is sitting at 16, and he was benched for a rookie.

Maybe a specific number target? 84?

If the DEFENSE gives up more than 21 (to eliminate special teams/pick 6’s, and fumbles that wouldn’t be the defenses fault) and they lose, we can call that a push. I’m not sure that’s a great measure of Tebow’s ability (or lack thereof), but that should work as a push. Good?

317

I would say that any QB who is a full time starter over the course of several seasons is a good definition of competency.

Or if you must use QB rankings, find the ranking where QBs tend to start losing their starting jobs and use that as the goal.

318

Munch, I’m not going to argue with you. FTR, I am NOT a Tebow fan, but you can’t argue with the results. You minimize momentum and positive energy and change in attitude like they mean nothing. See T.O. for someone that changed people in a negative way. If people cared only about their contracts, T.O.'s bullshit would have been embraced by all. I’m not exactly sure what you mean by your last sentence, but people are motivated by many things. Tebow’s fan base seems to be motivated in large part because he’s a vocal Christian. Who knows how many players are motivated by the same thing?

Well that’s not true, is it? When do points really matter? When there is no time left to score more. Sure, points count the same, but if the Broncos are down by 2 points and have 30 seconds left to get in field goal range with a chance to win, they will work harder. It’s human nature. It’s gut-check time. Suck it up for 30 more seconds time.

This Tebow thing is all touchy feely kind of stuff, not something you can actually document or put your finger on. I get it. And before the season started, I thought the Broncos were not only nuts for drafting Tebow in the first round, but even more nuts for trading up to get him. I still believe he will not pan out.

His passing motion is terrible, he takes entirely too long to get rid of the ball, and that will never translate well in the NFL. It just won’t. And once this Tebow bubble bursts, I think he and the Broncos will fall back.

I’ll (te)bow out now. I feel like I’m arguing with two guys I fundamentally agree with, and that’s a waste of energy.

I will say this, though. If God IS rewarding Tebow because he’s a devout follower, I’m going to be mighty pissed. With all the crap going on in the world, if God is rewarding a football team and a QB, he needs a reset of priorities pronto.

319

I’m not arguing with the results. I’m arguing with the cause of the results. That cause is a superior playing defense that we can directly attribute to both players returning from injury and rookies coming into their own. If you want to start putting motivational speeches above those two, you’re free to do so - but any effect they have is minimal. And if it does actually exist, I’d expect a Saturday night speech to translate to first half performance, rather than OT.

Really? Yes - his fan base is motivated by his faith, I won’t argue that. But absolutely NONE of his fanbase has made an INT or a tackle for a loss, run for a first down, or any other positive action on the field. Of that I am absolutely sure.

320

I would, actually. It’s a big part of it, sure, but he was wildly popular in Denver from day one, and Denver is not some hotbed of Evangelicalism. The announcers and media types who lined up to fellate him at Florida are not all god-botherers. Heck, plenty of media types who are very publicly religious – Kurt Warner, Trent Dilfer, and Cris Carter come to mind – have been among his biggest critics.

AFAICT, “He’s just popular because he’s a Christian” is a convenient line for lazy people who dislike Tebow and/or christians and like the idea of all their bad guys being on the same side.