I Was Wrong- There's a BIG Downside to Letting Tim Tebow start

You mean the same town where the Promise Keepers had all their meetings? Denver, where the Rockies have (had?) a Christian-based behavior policy? I was under the impression that Denver is absolutely a hotbed of evangelism.

But that logic only applies to Tebow’s offense, not opposing defenses. Weird, that.

All their meetings? It was an international thing. They met everywhere. The guy that started it was a football coach at Boulder … but Boulder in general is called the People’s Republic for a reason.

Given that evangelicals make up 30-40% of the population at large, there’s lots of them everywhere. But I just did some googling, and I see no indication that Denver has more than the average number.

30-40% is enough for me to say without much reservation that much of Tebow’s fanbase is religiously drawn to him, rather than so enamored of his playing style and ability they spent their own money to put up billboards promoting him before he ever started a professional football game last year. It’s the same religious attraction that made him an ideal subject of a Super Bowl commercial paid for by Focus on the Family. I don’t think these are outrageous assumptions to make.

You mean like how the Broncos came out completely flat against the Chargers (and Jets and Miami, actually) and needed 4th quarter heroics to win.

That point has been brought up repeatedly and basically batted aside because “he just wins”. The problem is that the mediocre to bad offensive play in the first 3 quarters but good defensive play sets them up for 4th quarter comebacks. So, somehow, Tebow is firing up the defense to play outstanding ball for an entire game but only firing up the offense for the last few minutes of the game. Does not compute.

Good teams playing bad teams make it boring to watch the 2nd half. If the team was for real, more of these games should have been blowouts or at least solidly in hand for Denver well before the 2 minute warning.

It’s not exactly the same situation, but the mania surrounding Tebow reminds me quite a bit about the fervor surrounding Vince Young in Texas, particularly Houston.

Until this year (and I’m sure some of the UT homers still think it quietly to themselves), a lot of Houstonians and even some sports writers were constantly haranguing the Texans’ front office for taking Mario Williams over Vince Young as a first overall pick. Each time the Titans won, it was about a QB who “just won” or “made things happen” and should have been drafted by Houston. Any/all criticisms were casually tossed aside, much like the situation with Tebow. This, despite a great Pro Bowl defensive end that offenses had to scheme around.

So, it just disappoints me whenever people attribute a team’s overall effort to a single player (albeit one with great physical skills, whether Young or Tebow) when more mundane explanations tell a better story.

They’ll work harder in that situation than if they’re down 21 and have no chance to win, sure. Is that supposed to mean anything? The point is that it’s not sensible to talk about how clutch Tebow is based on some game-winning drives without pointing out that if the offense were playing at an adequate level for the first three quarters, they wouldn’t need to be fired up and clutch and suck it up and blah blah blah to win the game at the gun. So this really does not refute the point I made. Neither does the perspective that the points only “really” matter when the game is over. What I said is that points matter equally at all times during the course of the game, and saying they don’t matter at all until the end is an agreement. Points are not better if you score them late.

The bottom line is that the Brocons have been far above average on defense and below average on offense, and people are saying that their success is due to their offense- and not only that, but the subpar offense is helping the very good defense more than the other way around. That doesn’t make sense. I’m not saying this is what you’re doing, but when people say they’re winning because of inspirational leadership, it shows more focus on the easy storyline than on the facts.

So he’s no different than anyone else in the league?

A couple decades ago, Doug Flutie was an exciting and unique player who drew outsize attention because of his college success, style of play, and a “he just wins” reputation. His prospects in the NFL were the subject of fierce debates. His critics dismissed him as a sideshow, and his fans made him a cult hero: the man had his own cereal before he had played a full season in the NFL. He is/was not, AFAIK, religious in any way, yet he created reactions akin to Tebow, and the same kind of fan pressure to put him in over the established starters.

It happens all the time in sports: someone who is unique, different or comes with an interesting backstory garners attention, even if their actual performance doesn’t warrant it: Brian Bosworth, Danica Patrick, Michelle Wie, etc.

So, yeah, while Tebow’s religion no doubt is a factor in his outsized popularity, precedent indicates it’s not at all necessary; ergo, blanket statements such as “his fan base is motivated by his faith” are reductive and based more on assumptions than evidence.

In what way? Being an outspoken evangelican christian with nationally televised right-to-life commercials? No - I’d say he’s pretty unique in that way.

Congratulations - you’ve discovered my point. In this case, Tebow’s interesting backstory is that he’s Football Jesus.

Do you believe Tebow has a *different *interesting backstory that people are glomming onto? If so, please share.

When you say it, it sounds plural.

I pointed out that 1/3 of all Americans are evangelicals. You responded that “-30-40% is enough for me to say without much reservation that much of Tebow’s fanbase is religiously drawn to him”

Assuming a roughly equal distribution, 30-40 of everyone’s fan base are evangelicals. In order to support your claim, you need some kind of indication that Tebow’s number is significantly larger than that.

In no order:

[ul]
[li]Good-looking[/li][li]White[/li][li]Two-time national champion[/li][li]Heisman trophy[/li][li]Constantly on TV in college[/li][li]“The Speech”[/li][li]Ran a unique, interesting offense [/li][li]Ran with a physical pounding style no other QB has in years.[/li][li]Clean-cut nice boy who doesn’t wear tattoos, get in trouble, or seem to be egotistical.[/li][li]Charity work, which plenty of people respect even if they don’t share his specific religious beliefs.[/li][li]Despite college success as a QB, from day one many have argued whether or not he could play the position in NFL.[/li][li]Has continued to be vigorously criticized and dismissed, even though he has consistently won in the NFL. [/li][li]Many of his NFL wins have come in dramatic, telegenic, comebacks.[/li][/ul]YOU may not find these things impressive or attractive, but other people do (on various conscious and unconscious levels).

Especially for casual fans, they see a guy who has every possible bottom-line measure of success, and yet still gets criticized and mocked. For them, such criticism is inexplicable and seems unfair.

Serious fans who follow the game closely understand why his throwing motion is a problem, and why it’s very unlikely that a QB completing 48% of his passes will succeed long-term. Casual fans see a guy who was dominant in college, and has won games in the NFL when given the chance, plays with an exciting style, and don’t understand why anyone would hate the guy.
The more he gets criticized, the more his fans will love him. And the more his fans love him, the more he will get criticized.

Ah, I see what you’re saying there. Valid point. I guess I’ll just point to Focus on the Family, one of the largest evangelical groups in the world, having thrown their considerable financial resources behind him to be a face of their mission. The fact that he’s strongly sought out by evangelical groups to speak lends some weight. Now, I really don’t know who came first - the faith-bashing Tebow haters, or the faithful Tebow defenders. One is going to beget the other. But among all the factors that draw fans in to him that you listed, nothing is as polarizing or attention-drawing as his faith.

And it’s not just because he’s outspoken. It’s because it’s been broadcast so loudly for so long, that that was one of the first things people knew about him. When he was on missionary trips, he’d get reported on at ESPN. Articles likethis were far more common when he was drafted than articles about how the Broncos were going to get to run the option, or that he’s good looking, or whatever.

For very small values of “consistently”. As a starter, yes, he’s won four of his last five games. His career record as a starting quarterback in the NFL is 6-3. I think you’re being very generous in calling him a “consistent” winner, with that small of an NFL resume.

As in, three of his six career wins?

Missed the edit window:

In 2007 (his first full season as a starter), Derek Anderson was a Pro Bowl quarterback for the Browns. His team won 10 games that year (2 in overtime). He’s never done anything close to that since, and has lost his starting job with two teams (Cleveland and Arizona).

I’d just like to see Tebow win over a bit longer of a timeframe before he starts getting placed in the upper echelon of NFL players. It’s way too early to tell if he’s going to be a long-term star, or another Derek Anderson.

You’re just repeating your assertion without giving evidence.

I lived in Florida when Tebow was in Gainesville, and there were plenty of people who couldn’t stand him simply because of the because of the constant Favre-like media adoration. Heck I know of one evangelical pastor who couldn’t stand the guy (Granted, he was a FSU alum). In point of fact, none of the big Tebow fans I knew were evangelicals, and none of the evangelicals I knew were big Tebow fans.

This was all long before Tebow did his one and only (AFAIK) commercial for a religious group. Considering that AFAICT he hasn’t done anything with them since, calling him "a face"of the organization seems a bit of a stretch, as does thinking one 60-second spot carries more weight than three years as the most famous college player in the country.

Again, I don’t doubt that some of his popularity is religion-based. But the idea that it’s the sole or even main source remains, AFAICT, nothing but an assumption made and endlessly repeated by people holding a grudge.

Tell you what. Go find every article you can that is primarily about Tebow the religious do-gooder. Come back and link to all of them, and I’ll pay you $1 each. Then I’ll find all the articles I can that are exclusively about Tebow the football player, and take no notice of his religion, and you can give me $1 each.

If you’re right, those “far more common” articles should make you a mint. We have a deal?

If not, name your stakes. How about I give you $2 for each one? $3? $5? Shit, I’ll take ten-to-one. If you really believe what you said, you should jump all over that.

I’ve already said I think his chances of long-term success are slim, but then I’m not an especially big fan.

Casual fans look at the bottom line, and the bottom line is that right now, today, he has been a winner. Casual fans tend to not get overly concerned about technical football stuff and what kinds of things are conducive to long-term organizational strength. They want to win, and win now. The Broncos under Tebow have been more successful than under anyone since Jake Plummer, and that’s all they care about.

If/when that changes, I expect the bottom will fall out of his popularity.

Of course. I’m not going to find an exhaustive study of every Tebow fan out there. But it’s nice that you followed this statement up with a bunch of anecdotes, that was a nice touch.

No thanks. I’m not foolish enough to do so - my statement was hyperbolic, because I know as well as anyone that there are a trillion sports websites out there that spit out the same 4 sentences about each player every single week. If you want to make it in-depth articles longer than 400 words, I might consider it. But I’m not all that interested in proving this point - it’s a very minor one.

Sure - but I also expect him to make a lucrative career of making speeches, attending evangelical conferences, etc. How’s Derek Anderson speaking circuit career going?

It’s all I have, and more than you’ve given. You made the assertion, have offered zero support for it.

Deal. You find articles that are primarily about Tebow the Christian, I’ll find articles that are just about Tebow the football player. $1 apiece. You can name the deadline and a judge.

Or you can just concede the point: Tebow is, in most people’s eyes, more about the football than about the Jesus.

Most Heisman winners do. Hell, Rudy Ruettiger makes a living as a motivational speaker and he only played in one college game, thirty years ago. Other than showcasing your resentment of someone else’s success, is there a point here?

Actually it’s exactly the same that he’s given.

Cite about Heisman winners? His point is obvious. Tebow will be invited to speak at Jesus camps because he’s Jesus McSaint, not be invited to CVS manager conferences so that guys can be nostalgic about their college days.

I don’t think Tebow would appreciate you taking an unfounded shot at Munch, btw.

I’m sorry, someone’s offered observations based on personal experience? Where?

http://www.athletepromotions.com/heisman-trophy-winner-appearance-booking-agent.php

Can’t say how “lucrative” those speaking careers are, but if you think Jesus Camp pays better than CVS, you’re nuts.

It was pretty founded, IMO. And I don’t really give a shit about what Tebow thinks.

Swears make baby Tebow cry.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I’m off to hear Ty Detmer speak… at the McDonald’s drive-thru.