I Was Wrong- There's a BIG Downside to Letting Tim Tebow start

The Game Room
41

Not quite. Florida played scrubs at least 3 times a year. And even inside the SEC, some teams were obviously a level higher than others (Vandy as an elite SEC team? Really?). Look at his games against Nick Saban coached defenses. He didn’t have so much success there.

Even the worst NFL guys on the other side of the field were among the elite in their positions in college, where you usually find only the elite players from high school. The coaching also tends to be better in the NFL. Even the worst NFL coaches would make above average college coaches.

So, a big part of why things often work in college but not the NFL is that you are able to simply abuse big time physical differences between teams and major differences in coaching talent. While some physical player differences and coaching quality differences exist in the NFL, the difference between the worst and best NFL teams is much smaller than the difference between the worst and best college teams, even among the 12 or 13 you might face in a single college season.

For example, I can beat my 6 year old nephew every time at chess using pretty much the same opening and tactics. That’s a far cry from saying I can duplicate that level of success against grandmasters.

But stuff from the college game sometimes does make it into the NFL. The Wildcat is a perfect example. Sure, it’s not so successful now, but while defenses were adjusting to it, it worked fine.

And Denver’s current strategy USED to work in the NFL. But several decades ago. But since it’s not run anymore, it’s going to take coaches and players a while to adjust. But that adjustment will come. The principles of how to defend it are there. It’s just a matter of giving players a chance to practice and coaches a chance to scheme. Also, it doesn’t really help that Denver just faced some of the worst teams and is about to face some of the best teams.

That’s why it’ll be interesting to see the games against the Jets, Patriots, and Bears. The Jets and Bears have good defensive minded coaching and players. The Patriots defense isn’t great, but Belicheck somehow finds ways to use his defense well. And the Chargers, with a few weeks of film may have some answers, too.

Well, he’ll get that chance. But the interesting question is the long term. In the (very likely, though not definite) chance that this offense actually is too one dimensional, the Broncos will have a starting QB that is useless in the long term. To some extent, it’s better to lose now, if it means Tebow gets some more practice passing the ball. Or at least to evaluate if he’s capable of that in the NFL. At the very least, it gives the rest of the team some reps in an offense more similar to one they’ll probably run in the future.

42

Just thought that this was a pretty honest evaluation from John Fox’s perspective on the Broncos being lead by Tim Tebow. The coach basically addresses everything that has been discussed in the two Tebow threads concerning why his style is at (the very) least getting wins.

43

Sure, Florida played some scrubs. All the elite teams have some pushovers on their schedules. But Florida played 6 ranked teams in 2008 (including two #1s) and beat them all *. They played 3 ranked teams in 2009 (all top 5), losing only to #1 Alabama.

In 2008-2009, they played 9 Nationally Ranked teams. They were 8-1. These weren’t coached by average coaches. Tebow was competeing against the elite in the toughest conference in College Football.

[sub]* - only loss was to a non-ranked team. That was the one where Tebow took personal responsibility for the loss and vowed that the team would be better. They beat the snot out of the rest of their opponents on the schedule, all by double digits.That included an ass-whupping of #23 South Carolina, who was couched by a guy who has coached in the NFL [/sub]

44

Sure, but my point is that even the elite teams in the SEC have weak links (even Arkansas, as I’ll admit). Not every player on those teams is NFL quality. Many of them aren’t even close. Even in the coaching, there’s a wide range of talent.

Florida under Urban Meyer had a big recruiting advantage. Even though the SEC might be the nation’s best conference doesn’t mean that there wasn’t still a huge difference in talent between teams in-conference. The relative difference between a Vandy and an LSU is much bigger difference than what you usually see in the NFL (the historically bad 2011 Colts, notwithstanding).

A lot of offenses that work in college don’t work all that well in the NFL. The triple option has worked great for Georgia Tech and for the service academies. It’s not something that works so well in the NFL.

I’m not saying he can’t have success in the NFL, but I am saying that the argument that using the same formula in Denver that he had in Florida just because it worked there is specious. The circumstances are different.

Denver IS adjusting for Tebow. Spread option (similar to what he ran at Florida) really wasn’t working for Denver. So, they went veer. Stick to the ground, since his passing sucks.

But the bottom line is that’s probably not a long term for success. If he’s to succeed, Tebow will have to develop as a passer and they’ll have to build some kind of offense around the skills he eventually develops. And hope they can keep winning games on the ground, in the mean time.

45

Agreed.

46

The one part I disagree about is the fact that the Broncos will have to build around Tebow’s eventual, developed skills. To succeed, the Broncos will need to build around the skills Tebow already has. And that’s extremely risky, because it’s going to be a huge overhaul in personnel, signing guys that don’t work particular well in regular offenses - so if Tebow were to falter (or get injured) down the line, their offense is (once again) poorly suited for his replacement. There are better and cheaper ways to win in the long term.

47

You say that, but look at Indianapolis. They had the ur-prototype quarterback, and when he went down the wheels came completely off. Is Curtis Painter so different? He’s also a traditional-type quarterback, and yet they can’t win a game. By your criteria he should have been able to slot right in.

A lot depends upon what the guy under center brings to the table, the intangibles as it were. I think there are a lot of pre-conceived notions about what makes someone successful in the NFL, and they never go away entirely even after they are disproven. Randall Cunningham- running quarterbacks can’t do well in the NFL. Warren Moon- the Run and Shoot is a fad. Michael Vick- you can’t win unless you’re a drop-back pocket passer. Well yeah, of course you can’t if they’re trying to force you to do something you’ve never done before. My example earlier, Kordell Stewart, is a fine example of this. They tried to make him a pocket passer and he sucked. They let him improvise and he had a great season. Then they put the brakes on him yet again and that was that. I watched it happen.

The personnel needed are not so different, nor are the skills required. The quarterback becomes a pass-capable running back and off you go. Personally, I think that Any Given Sunday, bad as it was, put it into focus: the players run the plays they are told to run or they have a seat on the bench. It’s an authority thing. How about this: the coaches loosen the chain and let the game happen instead of playing power games and see what happens.

48

I agree but it only goes so far at the QB position. At some point, he has to be able to make throws. Tebow hasn’t really demonstrated that. Vick, a QB many had written off as solely a running QB before his explosion with the Eagles LAST season, is a perfect example of that.

And this also illustrates that in today’s NFL, a quasi-decent QB needs good skill players to throw to. Andy Dalton v Ben Rothlisberger in their last meeting showed that. Once AJ Green went out with an injury, the Bengals pass attack was literally hamstrung and they lost the game.

Ben was finding Antonio Brown and Mike Wallace all game long, because they are good at what they do and they know how Ben plays (shaking off pressure despite FIVE sacks and finding the open guy on the run).

49

The wheels were mostly off last year in Indianapolis - if it wasn’t for Peyton’s quick release they’d have been nearly as bad. Add in a bazillion injuries, and the comparison doesn’t work.

And that’s if you don’t factor in that you’re not arguing against what I said. For the Broncos to succeed longterm, they need to add personnel that is equally unorthodox in order to fit Tebow’s style. And that’s risky. It’s the equivalent of adding a transmission to your car that’s all metric, when everything else is US measurements, and slowly adding metric parts around it so that it works properly.

But if you honestly think the option is an NFL-viable strategy, you’re certainly welcome to that opinion.

50

Watching the Broncos / Jets game tonight…I missed the first half, but what I’ve seen so far, the Broncos don’t seem to be using Tebow as a run threat very often. He only has 2 carries so far (and I suspect they were both in the first half), and I’ve only seen a couple of plays which looked like “option” plays. He’s been throwing quite a bit, but, at least what I’ve seen, he’s terribly inaccurate – it seems like his receivers are having to dive to have a chance at most of the passes he throws.

51

They ran a straight triple option for maybe 2/3 of the snaps in the first half. Didn’t work. Now they’re throwing it.

52

Wtf?

53

I’ll give him credit for getting them down the field on that last drive.

54

JFC I think I’m becoming a fan. He’s not much of a passer and he’s kinda one-dimensional, but he seems to be unstoppable as well. If he learns how to complete passes before the rest of the division figures out how to shut him down I think the Donks might just salvage this season.

So Ok, he’s not a traditional QB. He’s taking ownership of the games, he’s dragging his team into wins, and he’s exciting as hell to watch!

55

Lets not ignore the Denver defense which has been pretty darn good the last few weeks.

56

Jesus. Now I understand why so many people hate Tebow. Praying multiple times during the game, and he starts every post-game interview with a shout out to his Lord and Savior. Who is this Jesus guy? I’ve never heard of him, Tim, thanks for the tip!

57

Ummm, the Broncos have already salvaged their season. And, let’s be frank, if the Broncos would have gotten that PI call at the end of the San Diego game, there’s a real chance they could have been 6 - 4 right now instead of 5 - 5. Even still, considering where they were before Tebow went in, it’s nothing short of a miracle that they’re actually a legitimate threat to win the division. And I say that as a Dolphin fan (who, unfortunately, had to watch Tebow pull off the miracle of all miracles to win :().

As it stands, I don’t understand the people who continue to hate on Tebow. So he only completes about 45% of his passes? Big deal. He wins and, yes, winning is the only thing that matters in the NFL.

And what’s wrong with that? Many people (i.e., athletes, artists, actors, etc.) say similar before accepting an award or doing a press conference after a win. If that’s why you’re hating on the guy, then you really need to do a bit of self-reflection, because it’s a pretty ridiculous thing to “hate” someone for.

58

Special note to Satan and all his Infernal Minions®:

While it is in fact too soon to say the jig is up, Tebow may not be a legitimate NFL QB but consider the risks here. Even before he thanked his teammates Tim thanked his Lord and Savior for the victory over the Godless New Yorkers. Tonight’s battle has been lost but the war goes on, it’s time to plan longer term. While Jesus Christ may or may not take position and grant favor regarding the outcome of NFL games are you prepared to take chances regarding Tim Tebow’s career? No, it isn’t too soon to say the most diabolical and infernal recourse is necessary in this instance. Yes, you must allow Tim Tebow’s Broncos to win just enough games (a short term concession) to insure that Tebow’s image (idolatry) appears on next year’s Madden Football cover. Just ask Peyton Hillis how that has worked out for him.

59

The Jets were vicTIMized!! *

I didn’t get to watch the game. But when I saw the final score, I was suprised about how happy I felt.

I saw the highlights. Do they coat Tebow with vaseline in the 4th quarter? He seemed to slip through the defenders’ grasp a lot.

  • Denver Post Headline
60

Is it just me, or are people overlooking the fact that for 59’ish minutes of the game, Tim Tebow led his offense to a total of 3 points. Sure, he had a decent drive at the end of the game, but if the Jets’ offense didn’t suck so bad that they almost scored as many points for the opposition as for themselves, the game would have been so far out of reach because of the 59 minutes of offensive ineptitude, that a single drive at the end wouldn’t have mattered.

At a quick glance, 7 out of 11 of the Broncos’ offensive possessions went 3 and out (I’m excluding the first play fumble they had on one drive). They had a total of 11 first downs, most of which were on the first and last drives of the game.

Yes, the Broncos have been winning since Tim Tebow became the starter. The Broncos have also been playing against a string of some of the worst offensive performances I’ve seen, and their defense is pretty good to start with. The Broncos are winning despite Tim Tebow, not because of him.