Idle Speculation: Next Film to hit a Billion

At Boxoffice Mojo, they say that “Titanic” and “Return of the King” are the 2 only individual movies that have made over one billion at the box office. Any thoughts on what kind of flick will be the next?

Now, if you hate those two you could just answer “another film I despise”, but there’s probably plenty of films you despise that didn’t make it to a billion.

Also, if I knew what would make a Billion, I’d get my friends together, make that movie and retire. So, yes, this is idle speculation.

It’s very hard to say. For every blockbuster that lives up to expectations (which is a short list) there are many more that fall short. Peter Jackson is “king of the world” right now after LOTR, but I seriously doubt that King Kong is going to hit $1B.

Looking at the Box Office Mojo list, if I had to put money down right now I would place it on Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban. I thought it was a better film than the first two, and since they both ranked very high, I might get lucky. That being said, I doubt it will make it.

Of course, if we wait long enough, $1B will become easier and easier. Considering that ticket prices have increased at least 100% in the last 15 years, we’ll see a movie make $1B **domestically ** in the next 15 years.

Shrek 2 should be close. It’s made $365M domestic and hasn’t opened in most of the rest of the world yet. If the domestic / int’l split is the same as the first one, it won’t make it. But that’s hard to predict.

My longer term prediction is Mission: Impossible 3. The first two made over $500M in 1996 and 2000, and by 2005, between the pent-up demand and the general box office escalation, it should be easy.

Star Wars Episode III: <insert title here>.

If Lucas doesn’t totally screw it up.

Forrest Gump II: Electric Boogaloo

Yeah, like if that’s not for sure not going to not happen.

(I think that means what I meant; that Lucas is gonna screw it up)

I don’t not disagree with you.

I think.

Some movies don’t not make even less.

I willl not buy this tobacconist, it is scratched!

[sub]Spiderman 2?[/sub]

Harry Potter 7. Whatever it ends up being called.

The Candyland Movie starring Pauly Shore. Provided, of course, that the U.S. dollar undergoes massive, Depression-era-Germany style hyperinflation.

And tickets cost $1 Billion each.

And Pauly’s mom is still alive.

I was really surprised by how quickly Shrek 2 caught up and passed the Finding Nemo totals in North America. Nemo made over $850 million worldwide. If Shrek 2 doesn’t lose steam, it should hit a billion, IMO.

I think Spider-Man 2 has a chance as well. The first one made over $800 million worldwide, and the sequel has a lot of hype and excellent reviews behind it. People that missed the first one in theatres, only to learn from others that they missed a great film, will likely not want to miss this one.

I managed to convince both my parents to go see the first Spider-Man, and they’re actually anxious to see the sequel. Wow! (I just wish Marvel had stuck with the idea to call the sequel The Amazing Spider-Man.)

Anyhoo…