I think we fail to appreciate how unlikely it is to find another Black candidate for President like Barack Obama, the first Black person in our history that has had a decent shot at winning the office. That’s not to say we should elect him for his background alone, but it worries me somewhat that passing on him would mean several decades without another viable Black candidate for president.
First, a Black candidate would have to have all or most of the following things going for him:
Impressive Education: Probably Ivy-League. Probably a graduate degree as well in order to have unimpeachable educational qualifications.
Legislative or Executive Background: Today, this means either US Senate experience, or being a Governor. To date, there have been (including Barack) three elected Black US senators. Two from Illinois, one from Mass. There have only been three Black governors to date. Really only two, Deval Patrick (Mass, current), and Douglass Wilder (Va, 1990-1994).
Location: The candidate has to have be from, or relocate to one of a handful of states to have a chance. Three states have been responsible for all of the most powerful elected Black politicians (see above). Many states would probably not elect a Black person to Senate or any higher office.
Timing: Has to be in a position to win a post as a high elected official. There are only two parties, and not much turnover. Not much of a chance for a enterprising Black would-be senator in Mass. Or in California, West Virginia, or Conn, New Mexico, or Kansas for that matter. Must be from the party with momentum at the time, with no incumbent, or heir to the throne. There could not be a Barack Obama presidential run in '84, '88, '96, or '00. In addition, there probably won’t be another one (if he loses, and a dem wins) in 2012 or 2016 (depending on the circumstances).
Personality, Background & Image: Has to be personally engaging, eloquent, and non-threatening. Must be a near World-class speaker, thinker, and salesperson.
Has to walk the fine line of being palatable to the White majority and to the Black democratic base. Cannot be too closely associated with the civil-rights era leaders (Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton), but his/her commitment to civil rights ideals must be unquestionable. Must be clean cut, decent looking (to a majority of people) and incredible engaging. The person cannot have any personal conduct liabilities (ie. jail time, adultery, etc.). Stable marriage, kids (maybe), sufficiently religious, between 40-60 years old, tall, and personable.
Far from a comprehensive list, enough to show how hard it would be to find a person with such a background. Of course, you could be appointed to a high office (ie. Colin Powell, Condi Rice), but I think people who have never been elected to any office would not have a real chance to win. While I’d like to think that another Barack Obama could come out of the woodwork, I don’t think there many people with his unique set of skills, masochistic and egotistical enough to want to run for president.
How soon could we realistically expect to see another viable candidate?
Loses primary to Hillary Clinton, who wins in November over the Repubicans? 2016, and his name shall be Barack Obama
Loses primary to Hillary Clinton, who loses in November to the Republican candidate? 2012, and his name shall be Barack Obama
Wins Dem primary and then goes on to lose in November to the Republican candidate? I will guess before 2032, and he will probably be a Republican. But it could happen considerably sooner and his name could still be Barack Obama
Meaning “not Barack Obama running again, someone else”? If Obama loses (and does not come back to win again later) I think it’s more likely the Republicans will field a black candidate before the Dems do. Just a guess.
I actually thought Deval Patrick was a more likely Presidential candidate than Obama. He has a degree from Harvard, won a competitive race vs. Romney’s hand-picked successor and eviscerated her in the debates, and is a inspirational speaker. I don’t really know how things are going for him in Mass. because I left the commonwealth soon after his election, but he’s a golden guy.
I think Obama seriously miscalculated his timing. Four or eight years from now he would be a formidable candidate. Right now I think he’s way too green.
Some signs are encouraging. I heard a lot of buzz about whether Powell would some day run, for example. So, I think it could depend much more on the availability of somebody electable on their merits than on race.
I think it will be quite a wait before we no longer notice, and hope it happens well before then.
And it would be interesting to this Connecticut Democrat what a green candidate would do in this country of ours as president…Interesting indeed to think about having new, fresh ideas rolling around our white house…interesting to think if he brought 50% of the energy he has now into a presidency what he will accomplish…it’ll be better than the mortuary we currently have on Pennsylvania Avenue.
If we get Clinton, It’ll basically be like pressing the slo-mo key on my DVD and watching the US of A show slowly drone on…and on…
Personally, I want to see some good positive evergy back in that white house - that’s why I’m campaigning for the BHO…
Um, really? How do you define handful? Do you really Barack would have failed if he’d stayed in Hawaii?
I disagree with this contention. I think the impetus to elect a Black POTUS is strong enough to overwhelm incumbency, & is only going to get stronger if Obama loses.
Most of the “requirements” you mention apply in the same degree to whites, in fact to anyone not the child of a previous officeholder. So what it really amounts to is that there are seven white men for every one black man in this country, & disturbingly a larger ratio than that in politics.
No. There aren’t. There are a lot of white Republicans in the base who would love to vote for a black man; Alan Keyes has made a cottage industry of running interminably for President. But black people generally will not vote for nor join the [del]Southern Democrat[/del] “Republican” Party as it is currently constituted.
Given that we still make a fine distinction over candidates’ religion (even Christian religions!), which has never been institutionally discriminated against, I don’t think we will ever see that day when a black candidate is not seen as the ‘black’ candidate.
I don’t think he’d be a failure, but I think every politician evaluates their chances of winning, and his chances would be much lower in many other places.
Really? What makes you think this is the case?
I didn’t mean to imply that the average White guy would have an easy shot at being president, but there are far more (then sheer numbers would indicate) that have a reasonable shot.
Because people like me are sick of sending yet another WASP to the throne to run the country for eight years. It’s grown tiresome. It’s not just that we’ve never had a Black Prez. The greatest extent of ethnic diversity to date was that Greco-American Veep who a) had to change his name, & b) had to resign “over corruption” (as if almost everyone at that level doesn’t have skeletons). (I agree with Agnew’s dismissal, actually; but isn’t it convenient that a WASP Veep has never gone through that, but get a Mediterranean in & he has to resign?)
The Blacks are the most obvious victims of racism in our society, so it becomes the sorest racial issue. Sooner or later we’ll elect a Black President, or it’ll become clear that there is no racial reconciliation in the offing, & not only will Blacks support Black Separatism en masse, but I, the pro-admixture melting-pot type, will have to agree with them.
Obama could still do it after Hillary serves 2 terms. He’d be 55 when he ran again, prime time for a Prez. 'Course, he’d have to make a big show of the next 8 years (no sitting on his hands). Powell? Nah, the goodwill he built up over the years has steadily evaporated with his connection to the Bush administration. His time has past.